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Japan Box Office - WKND Forecast (Rurouni Kenshin; Guardians), Kenshin Biggest OW of the Year


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#9661
catlover

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BH6 is a 2014 movie. At least if you don't count the year as dec 1/nov 30.

 

Well, Japanese yearly ranking starts from Dec, or even late Nov sometimes. I based my "year" on that. But even if we're talking about Jan-Dec, there's Star Wars, which could get close to or more than 10b yen. So if Cinderella is the biggest foreign movie of the year, it will likely be the biggest overall too.



#9662
Cynosure

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Are those actuals for FF7 and Conan ?



#9663
edroger

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Are those actuals for FF7 and Conan ?

As at thursday 23: FF7 B1,083 Conan B1,214 DBZ B1,298

Edited by edroger, 24 April 2015 - 10:40 AM.


#9664
scabab

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You mean Thursday?

#9665
edroger

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You mean Thursday?


Yes

#9666
Cynosure

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Well forget what I said, Cinderella won't be the biggest foreign movie either.



#9667
edroger

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Saturday estimates

 

Cindy/FF wins but not explodes, Sunday increase can get a 6M$+ weekend. 

 

Holdovers Drop on usual locations: DBZ -60% - Conan -50% - FF7 -46,5%

 

Movie          FF7       DBZ     Conan     Cindy
Day              9         8         8         1
Est. Adm   120.567   171.381   196.431   263.031
Est.MYen    166,38    232,05    247,50    341,94
Est. $       1,398     1,949     2,079     2,872
   
Cume  Adm  906.065 1.175.652 1.171.613   263.031
Cume MYen 1.319,24  1.592,43  1.528,02    341,94
Cume  M$     11,08     13,38     12,84      2,87 

    

First Sat on Toho for Disney's

 

Frozen     59279 (T 254,8B)
Maleficent 62250 (T  65,4B)
Big Hero 6 46759 (T  91,5B)
Cinderella 48558

 

Sunday seats usual locations

 

363340  Cinderella

215889  Dragon Ball Z
202044  Conan 2015
150369  Parasyte final chapter
129229  Fast and Furious 7


Edited by edroger, 25 April 2015 - 08:10 AM.

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#9668
Cynosure

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Wow, our results are really different. I used last week's multipliers (2.393 and 2.469) and average ticket prices. How did you compute your estimates ?

 

Daily admissions :
Conan : 70813*2,393 = 169,455
DBZ : 61697*2,469=152,330


Daily grosses :
Conan : 169,455*1270.306 = 215 million yen
DBZ : 152,330*1342.11 = 204 million yen


Edited by Cynosure, 25 April 2015 - 08:19 AM.


#9669
edroger

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Wow, our results are really different. I used last week's multipliers (2.393 and 2.469) and average ticket prices.

 

Daily admissions :
Conan : 70813*2,393 = 169,455
DBZ : 61697*2,469=152,330


Daily grosses :
Conan : 169,455*1270.306 = 215 million yen
DBZ : 152,330*1342.11 = 204 million yen

The site in which we look for the numbers calculates the estimate market share of reported locations for each movie; for today we have a, obviously estimate, about 36% MS for Conan and DBZ, while for sunday we have 41% and 43,5%. More the MS is lower, more the multiplier is higher.



#9670
scabab

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What's the site you're using? Is it the mimorin site?

#9671
Cynosure

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Wait, where do you see the market share of the usual locations for each movie ? That's very interesting data and I can't find it anywhere on the website.



#9672
Icicle

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Cinderella OD was higher than FF7's, right?



#9673
Cynosure

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Yes but FF7's OD was a friday.



#9674
edroger

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Wait, where do you see the market share of the usual locations for each movie ? That's very interesting data and I can't find it anywhere on the website.

This is for Sunday

http://mimorin2014.b...entry-5035.html

*1 363340 1061 342.5 149 353 42.2 Cinderella
Pos/number of seats/number of shows/average seats per shows/screens 5 chains/screen total/market share 5 chains/movie

Edited by edroger, 25 April 2015 - 10:14 AM.


#9675
scabab

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Is there one for Saturday where it says the market share was 36%?

#9676
edroger

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Is there one for Saturday where it says the market share was 36%?

Is there one for Saturday where it says the market share was 36%?


http://mimorin2014.b...entry-5020.html

BTW the site had this kind of report every day.

#9677
scabab

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Thanks for that, that's very interesting.

If for Saturday DBZ was at a 37% Market share wouldn't it's admissions be closer to 167,000?

#9678
Cynosure

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I see. Thanks for that. However, looking at it in detail, last weekend those chains made up a market share of 37.2% for Conan and 37.1% for DBZ over the weekend for the screens and yet when it came to admissions the market share of the 5 chains was over 40% for both nearing 42% for Conan.

 

Basically, you can't really take the market share % for screens and expand it to admissions.


Edited by Cynosure, 25 April 2015 - 10:55 AM.



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