The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Tinalera]

Antman Quantumania

Thurs Feb 16 and Fri Feb 17(taken Jan 26)

Calgary Alberta Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	23	375	6072	4884	0.0767
	Fri	4	29	231	4499	6173	0.0374

[dobrevv]

https://deadline.com/2023/01/ant-man-the-wasp-quantumania-hits-tracking-with-120m-projected-u-s-debut-its-all-about-kang-1235241780/

[Joyous Legion]

Almost complimented deadline but that's the 4day☠️

[Ronin46]

Unless the movie is actually bad it does not seem like 120M 4 day is going to even be close. Its a good guess for 3 day really.

[el sid]

Infinity Pool, counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 30 (1 showtime)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 14 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 3 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 14 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 49 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 111 (2 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 221.

Up good 42% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Thursday and in the same 6 theaters): The Invitation (775k) had 164 sold tickets,

Crawdads (2.3M) had 262 sold tickets,

Barbarian (850k) had also 262 sold tickets

and The Menu (1M) had 367 sold tickets.

Infinity Pool, counted today for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 17 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 8 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 6 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 12 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 56 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 92 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 191.

Up ok 36% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday and in the same 6 theaters): The Invitation (6.8M) had 130 sold tickets,
The Menu (9M) had 349 sold tickets,

Barbarian (10.5M) had 194 sold tickets,

Crawdads (17.3M) had again 262 sold tickets,
Malignant (5.4M) had 163 sold tickets

and Old (16.9M) had 290 sold tickets.
The Night House (2.9M) had 74 sold tickets in 5 theaters (no showtimes in the AMC Lakeline).
 

Normally boxofficepro.com makes good forecasts but from ALL my comps it looks (way) better than 2.2M OW. The trailer is weird IMO but not uninteresting. And I don't think that it will have worse walk-ups than The Night House. So I hope for 5M OW.
 

Left Behind: Rise of the Anti-Christ had today in 2 of my 7 theaters 82 and 69 sold tickets.

And Fear had also today in 3 of the 7 theaters 41 and 42 sold tickets.
Pretty good numbers for both films considering that they have showtimes in only 2 respectively 3 of my theaters.

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Infinity Pool	T-0	Jax	5	7	18	54	571	9.46%
		Phx	6	9	13	35	780	4.49%
		Ral	6	9	14	35	966	3.62%
	Total		17	25	45	124	2,317	5.35%
Left Behind	T-0	Jax	4	5	15	118	518	22.78%
		Phx	5	7	13	220	1,167	18.85%
		Ral	5	5	12	116	530	21.89%
	Total		14	17	40	454	2,215	20.50%

 

Left Behind T-0 comps

 - I Heard the Bells - .915x (707k)

 - Chosen Season 3 (OD) - .183x (688k)

 

Looks like 700k but always hard to tell with these event movies

 

Infinity Pool T-0 comps

 - The Night House - 3.1x (806k)

 - Black Phone - .183x (477k)

 - Antlers - 1.051x (389k)

 - Men - .821x (347k)

 - X - .556x (245k)

 - Firestarter - .838x (314k)

 

Currently expecting around 350k for Infinity Pool

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Infinity Pool	1-Hr	Jax	5	7	51	105	571	18.39%
		Phx	6	9	21	56	780	7.18%
		Ral	6	9	29	64	966	6.63%
	Total		17	25	101	225	2,317	9.71%
Left Behind	1-Hr	Jax	4	5	25	143	518	27.61%
		Phx	5	7	47	267	1,167	22.88%
		Ral	5	5	15	131	530	24.72%
	Total		14	17	87	541	2,215	24.42%

 

Left Behind T-1 hr comps

(Didn't pull 1 hr for either of the comps I've been using)

 - Father Stu - 1.872x (1.03m)

 - Stillwater - 4.037x (1.13m)

 - All drama movies - 966k

 - All 7pm preview movies (fewer showings) - 1.17m

 - All movies - 1.16m

 

It's got a good shot at 1m if it performs like this all over.  I'd still bet on the under and I'll guess around 900k.

 

Infinity Pool T-1 hr comps

 - The Night House - 2.42x (629k)

 - Black Phone - .195x (508k)

 - Antlers - 1.184x (438k)

 - Men - .962x (407k)

 - X - .656x (289k)

 - Firestarter - 1x (375k)

All horror - 539k

All R movies - 514k

All 7pm preview movies - 487k

All movies - 480k

 

Matched Firestarter sales and very close to Antlers and Men.  I'll go with a confident 400k for previews.

Edited January 26, 2023 by katnisscinnaplex
Add comps

[keysersoze123]

On 1/22/2023 at 8:36 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania MTC2 previews - 63280/635237 932733.06 4080 shows 

 

2 days of data again.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania MTC2 previews - 71888/636602 1058339.75 4081 shows. 

 

Almost 4 days of data. its chugging along really good at this point. 

[Verrows]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania MTC2 previews - 71888/636602 1058339.75 4081 shows. 

 

Almost 4 days of data. its chugging along really good at this point. 

At this point we could be looking at close to Thor: Love and Thunder for the 3-day. Who saw that coming a little while ago?

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, Verrows said:

At this point we could be looking at close to Thor: Love and Thunder for the 3-day. Who saw that coming a little while ago?

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 minutes ago, Verrows said:

At this point we could be looking at close to Thor: Love and Thunder for the 3-day. Who saw that coming a little while ago?

Not too shocking imo

Marvel has been pushing AntMan 3 as the most important MCU film post-Endgame (in regards to moving the overarching story along)

 

It has the MCU's next big bad. That simple fact was always going to bring the MCU fanbase out in droves OW

[keysersoze123]

34 minutes ago, Verrows said:

At this point we could be looking at close to Thor: Love and Thunder for the 3-day. Who saw that coming a little while ago?

its doing very well. But I would not go that far looking at MTC1/alpha comps. I hope @ZackM will add comps with 2022 big MCU titles soon in his daily updates. 

[thajdikt]

So is 100M+ 3-day in the bag?

[GOGODanca]

Titanic Re-Release T-14

 

11 tickets sold across 14 showtimes at 7 locations

 

Magic Mike Last Dance T-14

 

17 tickets sold across 27 showtimes at 9 locations (2 showtimes that are shown as sold out but I am very doubtful about that, i've seen those errors a bit)

 

 

Edited January 27, 2023 by GOGODanca

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

So is 100M+ 3-day in the bag?

 

Wellll, while others are much more confident we are still three weeks out, so there is still time for Shenanigans to occur.   Say, MoM style frontloading in pre-sales, unexpectedly bad reviews, Random Unforeseen Shit.

 

Pretty damn likely though, sure. 

 

For instance, 19m x 5.27 does it.  Probably need to get down to 18m or so for sub 100m 3day to happen (18 x 5.5 = 99). 

 

So then the question is:  How likely is 18m-ish previews? Or better yet what would need to happen for 18m-ish in previews?  

 

I personally wouldn't call it a lock.  But at the same time, someone would probably have to give me very favorable odds to bet on a sub-100m 3day OW.

[GOGODanca]

100m 3 day is locked unless this pulls a last week like avatar 2 did 

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Wellll, while others are much more confident we are still three weeks out, so there is still time for Shenanigans to occur.   Say, MoM style frontloading in pre-sales, unexpectedly bad reviews, Random Unforeseen Shit.

 

Pretty damn likely though, sure. 

 

For instance, 19m x 5.27 does it.  Probably need to get down to 18m or so for sub 100m 3day to happen (18 x 5.5 = 99). 

 

So then the question is:  How likely is 18m-ish previews? Or better yet what would need to happen for 18m-ish in previews?  

 

I personally wouldn't call it a lock.  But at the same time, someone would probably have to give me very favorable odds to bet on a sub-100m 3day OW.

Unless the 18 was caused by really bad reception like Eternals, I would probably take the over on 100 with 18. If 18 was caused by a notable slowdown due to extreme GA/fan asymmetry, but reception was solid, I would expect IM over 5.5. Even on high-end previews I think IM will be closer to 6 as weekend sales so far are healthy. 

Edited January 27, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

100m 3 day is locked unless this pulls a last week like avatar 2 did 

 

But, like, this is kinda my point.  We really shouldn't throw around the "l word" unless something is truly locked.  If we start adding provisos, and not Act of God level ones, then it's really not locked, but "very likely".

 

Do I think it's likely at all that this has a pre-sale pattern like Multiverse of Madness?  I don't think it's likely at all.  I'm in XXR's club and I haven't seen any reason at all to change my mind.

 

Is it possible that I'm reading it wrong and that this peters out with the GA going "Nah, still Ant-Man"?  Man, it's three weeks out, iz all I iz sayin'.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Unless the 18 was caused by really bad reception like Eternals, I would probably take the over on 100 with 18. If 18 was caused by a notable slowdown due to extreme GA/fan asymmetry, but reception was solid, I would expect IM over 5.5. Even on high-end previews I think IM will be closer to 6 as weekend sales so far are healthy. 

 

There is that, at the same time this is a 2 hour film which means more showtimes on Thursday and thus more demand burnt off.

 

Also, part of a mooted low multi was "bad reception".  Have to consider the outlier possibilities when talking about locked/in the bag.  At least, IMO.

 

(this is something of a pet peeve of mine, I must admit — but it's also my innate cautiousness/conservatism when talking about absolutes)

((something something only Sith something something))

[Eric the Minion]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

We really shouldn't throw around the "l word"

Love?

[Issac Newton]

Rank	Film (Distributor)	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century)	$15.7 M	$620.5 M	-22%	7
2	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal / DreamWorks Animation)	$10.5 M	$140.7 M	-11%	6
3	A Man Called Otto (Sony / Columbia)	$6.5 M	$45.7 M	-26%	5
4	M3GAN (Universal)	$6.0 M	$81.8 M	-38%	4
5	Missing (Sony / Screen Gems)	$5.3 M	$17.1 M	-42%	2
6	Pathaan (Yash Raj Films)	$4.6 M	$7.2 M	NEW	1
7	Plane (Lionsgate)	$3.5 M	$25.0 M	-34%	3
8	Infinity Pool (NEON)	$2.7 M	$2.7 M	NEW	1
9	Left Behind: Rise of the Antichrist (Fathom Events)	$2.2 M	$3.0 M	NEW	1
10	Fear (Hidden Empire Film Group)	$1.8 M	$1.8 M	NEW	1