The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Menor the Destroyer]

13 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Demos will not be the same for BPWF and Ant Man - Reminder from Deadline - "Wakanda Forever pulled in a Black audience of 43% and Latino and Hispanic of 22%, per PostTrak, which combined at 65% is greater than the first 2018 movie’s respective demos, which counted a 58% turnout."

 

Between the widly different demos and the holiday weekend (which spurred sales for Friday over Thursday night), BPWF is an awful Thursday presale comp for this movie.  The on point comp should be Dr Strange + 15% ticket inflation - no skew on Dr Strange from a normal MCU demo (which Ant Man should also have), it is the most recent non-summer/non-holiday open, etc...

 

And to balance Dr Strange, if you think it was too much of an event and too humorless, the 2nd closest is Thor is you think this is a walkup humor/more family skewing MCU...

 

So, for me, I add both and divide by 2 and then add 15%:)...

 

If I'm wrong, it won't be the 1st time...but I don't think I'm wrong - I don't see a 65% Black/Hispanic overall demo turnout for this movie.

 

PS - And to continue how awful the BPWF comp is, this is one more Deadline nugget that will not repeat here..."Even more amazing is that this time around, women over 25 repped the biggest crowd for Wakanda Forever at 32%",

 

https://deadline.com/2022/11/black-panther-wakanda-forever-box-office-marketing-campaign-nba-lexus-adidas-target-1235171140/

I'm well aware of the demographic difference. BPWF is still a good comp as of now because it was at a similar point at the U bottom of the sales period and a more similar sales volume than MoM. It's late surges were nothing really special either, so I don't think it really skews much to look at the pace as of now. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

22 minutes ago, M37 said:

I’m looking at growth rates and the trajectory vs comps, it’s been very flat-ish for the past week

 

I’m not sure from where you got $23-$25, as the average of the BPWF comps has been in $19-$20 range since T-24, Thor in $22-23 range since T-22 (keeping in mind Thor had a later sales start and had only recently reached the bottom of the U-curve). 

 

It’s probably a lot easier to see than explain; I hope to have the chart set up by tomorrow

I see that you meant growth rate. Even there, looking at Sacto, pace was around 81% of BPWF for the past week (this is even with a couple of really bad days on Fri/Sat). Continuation of that pace will lead to a final BPWF comp of about 21.67 million and a final Thor comp of 22.2 million. And looking at Zack's comps ATP for Quantumania seems to be fairly high, so I would say 23m even from those numbers, as looking at Zack's numbers ATP seems to be around 5% higher for Quantumania. 

 

Now what I had interpreted your post as was pacing on par with BPWF in absolute sales from here on, and that would lead to ~25-26. That is a much tougher ask, but I don't think it's out of the picture either.  

Edited January 30, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[efialtes76]

27 minutes ago, ky02121 said:

When are the reviews for Knock at the Cabin coming out? 

Wednesday.

[el sid]

Knock at the Cabin, counted today for Thursday, Feb 2:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 52 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 53 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 9 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 1 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 18 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 101 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 122 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 356.

Comps (all counted on Monday for Thursday):

The Invitation (775k) had 97 sold tickets,

Barbarian (850k) had 156 sold tickets,

The Forever Purge (1.3M) had 104 sold tickets,

Smile (2M) had 213 sold tickets

M3gan (2.75M) had 274 sold tickets

and Nope (6.4M) had 1.544 sold tickets.

Knock at the Cabin, counted today for Friday, Feb 3:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 82 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 39 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 2 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 3 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 5 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 91 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 63 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 285.

Comps (all counted on Monday for Friday): The Invitation (6.8M) had 87 sold tickets,

Barbarian (10.5M) had 70 sold tickets,

Old (16.9M) had 150 sold tickets,

Smile (22.6M) had 229 sold tickets,

M3gan (30.4M) had 247 sold tickets

and Nope (44.4M) had 1.616 sold tickets.

 

Especially the Thursday presales look good. Under 20M OW would surprise me (unless its jumps and reviews are terrible).
 

80 for Brady presales tomorrow.

[M37]

19 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I see that you meant growth rate. Even there, looking at Sacto, pace was around 81% of BPWF for the past week (this is even with a couple of really bad days on Fri/Sat). Continuation of that pace will lead to a final BPWF comp of about 21.67 million and a final Thor comp of 22.2 million. And looking at Zack's comps ATP for Quantumania seems to be fairly high, so I would say 23m even from those numbers, as looking at Zack's numbers ATP seems to be around 5% higher for Quantumania. 

 

Now what I had interpreted your post as was pacing on par with BPWF in absolute sales from here on, and that would lead to ~25-26. That is a much tougher ask, but I don't think it's out of the picture either.  

Keep in mind with the Thor comp the absurd final couple of days, thanks to the July 4th week opening, pushing up from ~$24M to ~$29M actual

 

And even BPWF, had a decent hook at the very end (except vs Thor) due to some combination of the Fri holiday and demo skew

 

I just don't know if a film opening in mid-February on like a quarter-holiday Friday can have the same kind of last minute walk-up benefit, which is why to me its notable that Ant-Man isn't really gaining much ground now; would like to see it running ahead of those paces, because the best case may be just matching the final day pace, if not falling short, despite starting from a lower base value and in theory having a higher expected growth rate

 

Again, still plenty of time to go, absolutely can change, but in response to a question about the current pace, its ... mostly just fine

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

Keep in mind with the Thor comp the absurd final couple of days, thanks to the July 4th week opening, pushing up from ~$24M to ~$29M actual

 

And even BPWF, had a decent hook at the very end (except vs Thor) due to some combination of the Fri holiday and demo skew

 

I just don't know if a film opening in mid-February on like a quarter-holiday Friday can have the same kind of last minute walk-up benefit, which is why to me its notable that Ant-Man isn't really gaining much ground now; would like to see it running ahead of those paces, because the best case may be just matching the final day pace, if not falling short, despite starting from a lower base value and in theory having a higher expected growth rate

 

Again, still plenty of time to go, absolutely can change, but in response to a question about the current pace, its ... mostly just fine

The thing with bottom of the U though is that the pace is low for all films, so comps generally will change less. If I had to target a time for Quantumania to catch up with BPWF, it would be the T-10 to T-1 period after its social reactions, particularly T-4 to T-1 where BPWF's gains were largely unimpressive. T-0 for WF was pretty strong, yes, but if Quantumania has a stronger trend on Tues and Wed, it won't need that kind of bump. 

Edited January 30, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[M37]

39 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

The thing with bottom of the U though is that the pace is low for all films, so comps generally will change less. If I had to target a time for Quantumania to catch up with BPWF, it would be the T-10 to T-1 period after its social reactions, particularly T-4 to T-1 where BPWF's gains were largely unimpressive. T-0 for WF was pretty strong, yes, but if Quantumania has a stronger trend on Tues and Wed, it won't need that kind of bump. 

This is why I focus on the growth rates and less on raw tickets or comps 🙃 (But also there is a lot of noise/imprecision until like T-14/T-11 when trajectory becomes more clear).

 

 

[thajdikt]

Anything from 18-20M would be fantastic for Ant-Man imo.

[Eric Loves Rey]

80 for Brady Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	46	440	5932	7.42%

 

Comp - T-3

2.973x of Death on the Nile (3.27M)

2.256x of Dog (2.84M)

0.849x of The Lost City (2.76M)

1.084x of Downton Abbey 2 (2.06M)

0.813x of Elvis (2.85M)

2.268x of Where the Crawdads Sing (5.22M)

8.627x of Ticket to Paradise (9.49M)

 

For those wondering, the early access shows make up about 362 of the tickets sold. Will be interesting to see if these comps are steady, move down, and so on.

[Eric Loves Rey]

On 1/30/2023 at 12:25 AM, Eric Crowe said:

Knock at the Cabin Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	208	7393	2.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 23

 

Comp - T-4

1.677x of M3GAN (4.61M)

Knock at the Cabin Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	256	7393	3.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 48

 

Comp - T-3

0.668x of The Black Phone (2.06M)

0.805x of Smile (1.61M)

1.320x of M3GAN (3.63M)

[Eric Loves Rey]

On 1/30/2023 at 12:38 AM, Eric Crowe said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	162	3841	31384	12.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 85

 

Comp T-18

2.442x of Black Widow (32.23M)

3.151x of Eternals (29.93M)

0.881x of The Batman (19.03M)

0.429x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.46M)

0.800x of Thor 4 (23.2M)

0.613x of Black Panther 2 (17.17M)

2.486x of Avatar 2 (42.26M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	162	3923	31384	12.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 82

 

Comp - T-17

2.410x of Black Widow (31.81M)

7.692x of Shang-Chi (67.69M)

3.091x of Eternals (29.37M)

0.348x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (17.41M)

0.863x of The Batman (18.65M)

0.427x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.36M)

0.801x of Thor 4 (23.23M)

0.614x of Black Panther 2 (17.2M)

2.434x of Avatar 2 (41.37M)

[Porthos]

46 minutes ago, Eric Crowe said:

80 for Brady Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	46	440	5932	7.42%

 

Comp - T-3

2.973x of Death on the Nile (3.27M)

2.256x of Dog (2.84M)

0.849x of The Lost City (2.76M)

1.084x of Downton Abbey 2 (2.06M)

0.813x of Elvis (2.85M)

2.268x of Where the Crawdads Sing (5.22M)

8.627x of Ticket to Paradise (9.49M)

 

For those wondering, the early access shows make up about 362 of the tickets sold. Will be interesting to see if these comps are steady, move down, and so on.

 

Glad to see you're using the The Lost City comp as that one had three themed special preview events as well.  Genre is different, but perhaps not the target audience?  Gut instinct says that might be a pretty decent comp and I'm curious to see if anyone else is thinking similarly.

Edited January 31, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	235	28265	32556	4291	13.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

119

 

T-18 Comps

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	44.54		176	9635		0/329	31273/40908	23.55%		21117	20.32%		16.03m
L&T	73.03		196	5876		0/228	25724/31600	18.59%		16962	25.30%		21.18m
BP2	66.75		114	6428		1/294	30596/37024	17.36%		16800	25.54%		18.69m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     854/12953  [6.59% sold]
Matinee:    133/3317  [4.01% | 3.10% of all tickets sold]
3D:            491/6479  [7.58% | 11.44% of all tickets sold]

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	235	28166	32556	4390	13.48%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

99

 

T-17 Comps

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	44.52		226	9861		0/329	31047/40908	24.11%		21117	20.79%		16.03m
L&T	72.75		158	6034		0/228	25566/31600	19.09%		16962	25.88%		21.10m
BP2	66.78		146	6574		1/294	30450/37024	17.76%		16800	26.13%		18.70m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     878/12953  [6.78% sold]
Matinee:    140/3317  [4.22% | 3.19% of all tickets sold]
3D:            512/6479  [7.90% | 11.66% of all tickets sold]

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
80 for Brady	T-3	Jax	5	15	11	56	1,926	2.91%
		Phx	5	12	2	31	1,360	2.28%
		Ral	7	22	3	70	1,887	3.71%
	Total		17	49	16	157	5,173	3.03%
Ant-Man 3	T-17	Jax	6	91	51	1,121	15,860	7.07%
		Phx	6	85	36	1,171	15,027	7.79%
		Ral	8	102	26	1,142	13,657	8.36%
	Total		20	278	113	3,434	44,544	7.71%
Brady EA (1/31)	T-1	Jax	3	3	6	65	446	14.57%
		Phx	1	1	3	50	106	47.17%
		Ral	1	1	4	9	139	6.47%
	Total		5	5	13	124	691	17.95%
Brady EA (2/1)	T-2	Jax	3	3	1	20	446	4.48%
		Phx	1	1	1	19	106	17.92%
		Ral	1	1	0	2	73	2.74%
	Total		5	5	2	41	625	6.56%
Chosen 3 Finale	T-3	Jax	5	12	302	302	1,677	18.01%
		Phx	4	10	518	518	1,813	28.57%
		Ral	7	16	518	518	1,827	28.35%
	Total		16	38	1,338	1,338	5,317	25.16%
Knock at Cabin	T-3	Jax	6	19	13	70	3,674	1.91%
		Phx	4	9	1	43	1,400	3.07%
		Ral	7	18	10	56	2,812	1.99%
	Total		17	46	24	169	7,886	2.14%
Magic Mike 3	T-10	Jax	4	20	6	39	2,295	1.70%
		Phx	4	9	0	4	1,567	0.26%
		Ral	7	16	11	41	2,018	2.03%
	Total		15	45	17	84	5,880	1.43%
Titanic	T-10	Jax	5	13	17	17	1,950	0.87%
		Phx	4	8	16	16	1,086	1.47%
		Ral	6	12	19	19	1,372	1.38%
	Total		15	33	52	52	4,408	1.18%

 

80 for Brady T-3 comps (excluding EA)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.453x (1.23m)

 - Menu - 1.04x (1.04m)

 - Violent Night - 1.377x (1.51m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - missed

 

80 for Brady including EA

 - Lost City + EA - .974x (3.16m)

 - Downton + EA - .497x (895k)

 - Ticket to Paradise + EA - missed

 

Knock at the Cabin T-3 comps

 - Nope - .207x (1.32m)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - missed

 - Halloween Ends - missed

 - Northman - .587x (792k)

 - Crawdads - .388x (775k)

 - Old - 1.69x (2.54m)

 - Smile - missed

 

Chosen Season 3 Finale T-3 comps

 - Chosen 3 ep 1-2 - .653x (2.45m)

 - I Heard the Bells - 3.224x (2.49m)

 - Left Behind - 5.107x (3.12m)

 

Magic Mike 3 T-10 comps

 - 80 for Brady - 1.183

 - Violent Night - 1.355x (1.49m)

 

Titanic T-10 comps

 - Elvis - .205x (655k)

 

Ant-Man 3 T-17 comps

 - NWH - .44x (21.98m)

 - Black Widow - 2.08x (27.51m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .372x (13.38m)

 - Thor 4 - missed

 - Eternals - 2.9x (27.55m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
80 for Brady	T-2	Jax	5	21	8	64	2,637	2.43%
		Phx	5	12	5	36	1,360	2.65%
		Ral	7	27	11	81	2,828	2.86%
	Total		17	60	24	181	6,825	2.65%
Ant-Man 3	T-16	Jax	6	91	20	1,141	15,860	7.19%
		Phx	6	85	18	1,189	15,027	7.91%
		Ral	8	102	33	1,175	13,657	8.60%
	Total		20	278	71	3,505	44,544	7.87%
Brady EA (1/31)	T-0	Jax	3	3	12	77	446	17.26%
		Phx	1	1	9	59	106	55.66%
		Ral	1	1	6	15	139	10.79%
	Total		5	5	27	151	691	21.85%
Brady EA (2/1)	T-1	Jax	3	3	2	22	446	4.93%
		Phx	1	1	2	21	106	19.81%
		Ral	1	1	1	3	73	4.11%
	Total		5	5	5	46	625	7.36%
Chosen 3 Finale	T-2	Jax	5	12	19	321	1,677	19.14%
		Phx	4	10	26	544	1,813	30.01%
		Ral	7	18	24	542	1,957	27.70%
	Total		16	40	69	1,407	5,447	25.83%
Knock at Cabin	T-2	Jax	6	21	9	79	3,958	2.00%
		Phx	4	9	7	50	1,400	3.57%
		Ral	7	24	18	74	3,400	2.18%
	Total		17	54	34	203	8,758	2.32%
Magic Mike 3	T-9	Jax	4	20	-6	33	2,295	1.44%
		Phx	4	9	1	5	1,567	0.32%
		Ral	7	16	5	46	2,018	2.28%
	Total		15	45	0	84	5,880	1.43%

Titanic (Re)	T-9	Jax	5	13	1	18	1,950	0.92%
		Phx	4	8	2	18	1,086	1.66%
		Ral	6	12	3	22	1,372	1.60%
	Total		15	33	6	58	4,408	1.32%

 

 

80 for Brady T-2 comps (excluding EA)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.011x (1.01m)

 - Menu - 1.017x (1.02m)

 - Violent Night - 1.183x (1.3m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - 1.257x (1.19m)

 - Lost City - .519x (1.3m)

 

80 for Brady including EA

 - Lost City + EA - .886x (2.88m)

 - Downton + EA - .491x (884k)

 - Ticket to Paradise + EA - 2.478x (2.73m)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-2 comps

 - Nope - .197x (1.26m)

 - M3GAN - .927x (2.55m)

 - Black Phone - .634x (1.65m)

 - Halloween Ends - missed

 - Northman - .575x (776k)

 - Crawdads - .357x (715k)

 - Old - 1.538x (2.31m)

 - Smile - missed

 

Chosen Season 3 Finale T-2 comps

 - Chosen 3 ep 1-2 - .651x (2.44m)

 - I Heard the Bells - 3.148x0 (2.43m)

 - Left Behind - 4.453x (2.72m)

 

Magic Mike 3 T-9 comps

 - 80 for Brady - .923x

 - Violent Night - 1.167x (1.28m)

 - Lost City - .475x (1.19m)

 

Titanic T-9 comps

 - Elvis - .204x (651k)

 

Ant-Man 3 T-16 comps

 - NWH - .25x (12.42m)

 - Black Widow - 2.04x (26.99m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .37x (13.31m)

 - Thor 4 - .715x (20.73m)

 - Eternals - 2.87x (27.25m)

 - BP2 - .622x (17.43m)

[ZackM]

On 1/28/2023 at 11:53 PM, ZackM said:

 

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	6	1	3	6
Seats Added	0	460	318	533	753
Seats Sold	1,807	1,873	2,818	2,277	2,295
1/28/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	434	4,616	129,750	866,739	14.97%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	6	32	146	290
ATP
$18.03

 

Last couple days and comps:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	6	1	3
Seats Added	0	0	460	318	533
Seats Sold	2,695	1,807	1,873	2,818	2,277
1/29/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	434	4,616	132,445	866,739	15.28%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	34	149	301
ATP
$18.01

 

 

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	0	6	1
Seats Added	0	0	0	460	318
Seats Sold	2,061	2,695	1,807	1,873	2,818
1/30/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	434	4,616	134,506	866,739	15.52%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	34	149	309
ATP
$17.98

 

 

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Comps
	Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11
T-12
T-13
T-14
T-15
T-16
T-17	$21.8	$22.8	$21.0	$21.8	$16.5	$17.6
T-18	$21.8	$22.8	$21.2	$22.1	$16.7	$17.8

 

[vafrow]

I can see that per the official tracking people are doing that Knock at the Cabin appears to be doing well, but, in my region, sales are sparse.

 

I checked ticket sales in my area for Thursday (as nothing beyond that is available) and for the half dozen theatres i checked, there's a total of 7 tickets sold.

 

This is west end of the Toronto area (Halton, Mississauga). I'm not sure if others are tracking this in Canada more comprehensively. I can't think of any reasons why this movie would be performing differently in Canada compared to the US.

 

[M37]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Glad to see you're using the The Lost City comp as that one had three themed special preview events as well.  Genre is different, but perhaps not the target audience?  Gut instinct says that might be a pretty decent comp and I'm curious to see if anyone else is thinking similarly.

Maybe, but just don't think it will be nearly the GA draw of Lost City without Bullock and Tatum - much more niche and older woman skewing (the earliest ticket buying audience), far less walk-up friendly. Honestly wondering if it goes more the way of Downton Abbey, with higher volume sneaks/EA but weaker true Thursday (though the 3pm preview start is going to help push up that Thursday number given the audience skew)

 

TTP had a $1.1M Thursday, $6.4M OD, $16.5M weekend

Death on Nile was $1.1M/$5.1/$12.9M (Super Bowl weekend)

Downtown was $1.0M (true Thu?)/$7.4M/$16.0

Lost City was $2.5M true Thur / $11.5M OD / $30.4M

 

Still pretty clearly a double digit opening, but I'm really hesitant to set expectations higher than "teens" for the weekend

[M37]

33 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

80 for Brady T-2 comps (excluding EA)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.011x (1.01m)

 - Menu - 1.017x (1.02m)

 - Violent Night - 1.183x (1.3m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - 1.257x (1.19m)

 - Lost City - .519x (1.3m)

 

80 for Brady including EA

 - Lost City + EA - .886x (2.88m)

 - Downton + EA - .491x (884k)

 - Ticket to Paradise + EA - 2.478x (2.73m)

Yeah these numbers seem more likely to me
 

34 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Chosen Season 3 Finale T-2 comps

 - Chosen 3 ep 1-2 - .651x (2.44m)

 - I Heard the Bells - 3.148x0 (2.43m)

 - Left Behind - 4.453x (2.72m)

Sleeper Thursday winner here 

[keysersoze123]

On 1/29/2023 at 10:28 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Knock at the Cabin MTC1 previews - 10146/195291 184109.58 1081 shows. 

 

Excellent number at this point. Thinking it will do 3m+ previews and 20m+ OW. 

Knock at the Cabin MTC1 previews - 13379/209231 239765.45 1178 shows

 

This is as of this morning. i must admit its slightly  lower than what I expected. hopefully its at 20K+ before end of wednesday and finish around 50-60K with great walkups. That should ensure 3m+ previews. 

[keysersoze123]

On 1/28/2023 at 8:07 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania MTC2 previews - 74577/640636 1094385.00 4115 shows.

 

Another 2 days of data. 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania MTC2 previews - 78204/642066 1145696.00 4120 shows. 

 

This is again as of yesterday later afternoon and so another 2 days of data.