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keysersoze123

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Everything posted by keysersoze123

  1. keysersoze123
    Let burst for Terminator is really good. Really bodes well for solid walk ins this weekend. I would ignore the bunch of usual suspects who come to this thread only as Debbie Downers ready to pile in on some movie. As I said its PS was meh until couple of days ago. It sold more tickets today than rest of its PS run and PS for tomorrow is already well ahead of today's finish. I will post final numbers in couple of hours but at this point I would not rule out 40m weekend based on the data I see.
  2. keysersoze123
    I on the other hand think 40m is possible. PS for tomorrow is rock solid. Definitely hitting low teens friday and with better walk ins I can see this hit 40m. but 35m is a good conservative prediction at this point. PS for 2 chains crossed 650K for previews, So 2m+ previews is happening. How much higher it can go I will update at night. If Final number goes to 850K then you are looking at 2.3-2.5m range.
  3. keysersoze123
    super. Strong weekdays in several markets. As I said to @RJ 95 this will beat expectations for sure.
  4. keysersoze123
    Terminator Dark Fate (Mid day thursday Update) AMC Prev - 24647/202414 $402686 +5340 Cin Prev - 9976/200627 $128276 + 2406 Its ramping up. I am thinking it should hit 45-50K finish. That should be enough for > 2m previews.
  5. keysersoze123
    Thursday/Friday are holidays(friday not for everyone). Schools are generally off entire week. So 28th and 29th are holidays.
  6. keysersoze123
    It should beat Cap Marvel in Brazil. That had a very impressive run much bigger than any other Solo MCU movies.
  7. keysersoze123
    China is one market where we will know the OD before release with real time tickets sales data available. I dont know how that handle is predicting this far ahead. Have they done thie before and are they accurate. @Olive @Gavin Feng
  8. keysersoze123
    Empire 25 has 1st set of shows listed for F2. 2 imax, 2 dolby and 2 digital shows are listed. No 3d and no prime. I dont have comparison with TS4 as I did not track theaters but TLK had lot more shows from the beginning. But we still have time. I think PS should go live either this evening or tomorow at worst. Still nothing at Metreon 16(2nd largest Imax Screen after Lincoln Square) at SF.
  9. keysersoze123
    on SW previews/OD sold about 1400+ tickets at AMC while at Cinemark I saw 2516 tickets sold today !!!! Also for LOLs I ran the 1046 shows for F2 like I did for SW9 before PS started. After all inside sales and sales at box office can happen. SW9 was at 18424/723615 before the PS start !!!! F2 is at 435/217658(data for 1027 shows). So if SW9 Previews would be say 50m that would mean F2 previews would be YUGE 1.18m Now if F2 previews end up say 20m as some are predicting what would be extrapolated SW9 previews. On a serious note these numbers are irrelevant.
  10. keysersoze123
    Joker is down 14% from Monday while Mal 2 is down 11-12%. This is just one chain.
  11. keysersoze123
    I am not talking today. You have data when the PS starts. I dont agree with Endgame comparisons. That had 11 years and 20 odd movies of build up. This is a sequel to a big WOM blockbuster. So movies like I2 or TS4 will be good comparison. TLK should be good as well as both were family movies thought that had more than a generation of audience build up vs 7 years for Frozen. We will see how Endgame for girls work out. Generally women driven movies tend to have strong PS. But Family movies have limited PS though I2 and TS4 did very well. TLK was uber strong but it played more than family movie.
  12. keysersoze123
    I scraped across AMC and found 1046 shows. That is 1/5th of current SW9 PS count and 1/3rd of final Joker count(95% were there from day 1 from anecdotal checks). But I agree Joker started PS so late that it started with almost final show count. I will wait for PS to start before passing judgement. I dont have any data for TS4(it was good old days of Pulse data). But I have month of tracking 2 chains and I did do Previews for TLK at Empire 25(and Spider-man Midnights and few other movies after that like Once Upon, H&S, IT2). TLK should be very good movie to compare with. That started around similar time as well.
  13. keysersoze123
    I am curious why you think so. That had 13-14 years of anticipation and was superhero based animation. This is female driven movie with a talking snowman. Not sure it will play as much 4 quad like I2. I could be wrong. Its PS has not even started and so I will compare this to TLK when it starts. That had higher previews than I2 and so would be good comparison. @captainwondyful I am sure has more data to compare. At least shows have started to appear at plexes but so far its limited(1/5th of current SW preview show count and 1/3rd of Joker final show count) . Nothing screams uber previews. But I will wait for PS to start before providing better perspective. I have a month of data across 2 chains and I do have TLK previews data for Empire 25.
  14. keysersoze123
    Terminator Dark Fate(T-1) AMC Prev - 19307/200955 $320787 1007 shows +2468 AMC OD - 27652/615205 $454447 2953 shows + 3790 Cin Prev - 7570/205205 $97916 1273 shows +1440 Cin OD - 14163/494905 $164849 2953 shows +1958 Good increase in just under 9 hours. As someone said Halloween could depress previews but OD should be solid. I am thinking it could hit 12-13m friday with just under 2m previews.
  15. keysersoze123
    There are very few theaters listing shows. I am not sure it will start tomorrow. SW9 shows were listed friday/saturday and sales opened on Monday. I am expecting something similar. So either friday start or Monday like SW9. Among AMC's I checked only AMC Lincoln Square has listed shows and that too just for Imax(2 of them). Does not feel like how they do it for blockbusters(example lion king). Even Joker started with crazy amount of shows.
  16. keysersoze123
    One thing I have seen is Mal 2 is losing about 7% shows tomorrow while Joker is losing under 1%. But Mal 2 is having way more shows and so that makes sense. But that could mean Joker could stay flat while Mal 2 will drop from Wednesday. That is without taking any halloween impact/boost into effect.
  17. keysersoze123
    Ok for Frozen 2, I see few listings from Regal and some Indies. New York has 4 theaters listing 2 showtimes each for previews starting either at 6PM or 7PM. So will PS start sometime this week or will it be next Monday. Is there a forum where they can release a trailer and say tickets on sale?
  18. keysersoze123
    Terminator Dark Fate (wednesday mid morning update) Cin Prev - 6130/205225 $79576 1274 shows +1683 Cin OD - 12205/494905 $142613 2953 shows AMC Prev - 16839/197817 $282761 991 shows +1576 AMC OD - 23862/606699 $396927 2913 shows Didn’t @TalismanRing say this movie can have PS to OW multi of as high as 17-18? Any way looking at PS above, OD seem way better than Previews. So let us wait until friday before we doom this movie
  19. keysersoze123
    So something like 20m PS and 140m OD. I feel PS for last day will behave like it was already at 20m PS and so it can double that number. We will see how things go today(its already Thursday in Middle Kingdom).
  20. keysersoze123
    Animation flicks are not the most popular movie in expanding markets. That said Toy Story 4 did much better than TS3 in Latin America. It is also effected by $ strength this year. The fact that it squeaked by TS3 WW with 3D being dead and $ being so strong plus the fact that it was supposedly “not wanted” sequel made its run very impressive. Just look at Dory OS. It dropped in most markets from Nemo despite 13 years of inflation !!!!
  21. keysersoze123
    I would not extrapolate China with Wanda starting PS so late. It looks like starting with > 100K shows and I am thinking PS should hit 30m by end of Thursday as real action will happen today. With late PS 5x PS multi for 150m OD and 450-500m OW is possible(all number in rmb). Then its all on WOM and I am not predicting that in china. It could be anywhere from 800-1B yuan. @POTUS 2020 please confirm if I am way off.
  22. keysersoze123
    I did not track last tuesday and so dont have any reference. Joker tickets sales at AMC was just under double monday while Mal 2 increased like 180% !!!! Discount tuesday is huge.
  23. keysersoze123
    Dark Fate PS is at 6.11m at Maoyan(7m at cbooo if that matters). Still crazy low. but it has 85K shows at this point and so Wanda should have started PS. Let us hope it explodes to 30-35m tomorrow and go for 5x PS for OD.
  24. keysersoze123
    Quick update on SW9 AMC Previews - 257363/839118 $3848094.61 5009 shows AMC OD - 151404/1073361 $2436777.51 5242 shows Cin Prev - 159636/437819 $2072819 3161 shows OD is increasing slightly better than previews(1554 to 1363) over 24 hours(similar to yesterday). That makes sense as better show/seat combo is available for OD than previews. At some point the OD PS will exceed Previews but that wont happen until December. Cinemark is also doing slightly better than AMC. Another interesting thing about Cinemark is just over 50% of tickets is sold in Texas(no: 1 market) and California with CA having better from %sold and average ticket price. Cinemark is almost non existent in NYC area(only one theater in NY and 4-5 in NJ region). After these 2 states Ohio is the next biggest. Show count increase is also quite slow with few shows being added every day. That will also continue until December.
  25. keysersoze123
    Terminator Dark Fate (T-2) AMC Prev - 15263/180635 $257505 892 shows +2016 Cin Prev - 5564/188109 $72598 1123 shows +1117 Another Meh day. I am thinking previews close to 2m at this point.
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