REVISED Weekend Estimates 6/14--6/16: Man of Steel OW $116.7M($128.7M including WM)

[MrPink]

If he's using AWE as a template then that would mean 130M  thu-sun and not the 139M-148M he is projecting.

 

The model makes no sense since it came out on Memorial Day weekend, didn't it? Won't play out much like it.

[kayumanggi]

We should be celebrating guys. This summer, despite some bumps, has been phenomenal. May it continue for the rest of the year.

[ecstasy]

Ray Numbers:

139-148    

 

139:               148:

 

12                   12

+                     +

44                    44

+                      +

46 (+5%)          50 (+14%)

+                      +

37 (-20%)       42 (- 16%)

=                     =

139                148

 

 

(will do the others later)

 

So he is including increases from Friday's gross with midnights.  I'm not sure that's happening.

[redfirebird2008]

Ray is being silly..Mega openers only perform like that on Saturday outsidee of June July.

 

Yeah, I'm thinking more like $110-115m for the 3.5 day total.

[#ED]

If the argument is that Walmart didn't sell all the tickets, them 12M proves it.Walmart had 1M tickets to sell.$9 2D$11 3DAssuming they were 50/50(2D/3D), if Walmart sold all tickets it would be more than 12M...Am I correct? Or has this forum lowered my intelligence in the last 24 hours?

[Lordmandeep]

So he expects to pull a im3 style Saturday and much more?The thing is ed if all the wall mart tickets were sold that's a big but pretty frontloaded opening day then.

Edited June 15, 2013 by Lordmandeep

[The Stingray]

Anyway, enough with the Walmart. The movie will make +100m OW, which I didn't think would happen, so here's to Man of Steel and swimming with bow-legged women.

[kayumanggi]

 

If they included the Walmart showings, Opening Day would've beaten POTC: DMC. Superman has his revenge!

 

 

The revenge happens in July 2015. MOS ll vs POTC V. lol

[baumer]

Bullshit. It's not gonna increase from OD incl. midnights on saturday.

 

If it follows AWE, it will have a small decrease.

 

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=piratesofthecaribbean3.htm

[MrPink]

But they don't have to make anything look good.  Every dollar they made this weekend is legit.

 

Half joking. The 44m number is great. Even better once you throw in Wal Mart. I was hoping for 110 million as a best case scenario and it's going to exceed that.

[riczhang]

We should be celebrating guys. This summer, despite some bumps, has been phenomenal. May it continue for the rest of the year.

Kinda hard to when there's delusion everywhere. much more fun attacking ray's lack of BO projection skills and etc.

[baumer]

If he's using AWE as a template then that would mean 130M  thu-sun and not the 139M-148M he is projecting.

 

Yes, his calculator is not working.

[baumer]

Yeah, I'm thinking more like $110-115m for the 3.5 day total.

 

I'm thinking 125-127

[ecstasy]

But in this case, the tickets were sold.  Walmart had to buy those tickets and then sell them.  WB gets paid whether or not WM sells them all.

 

I don't think may are arguing against this though. They have every right to include in the opening weekend. But it does skew things when trying to predict the run.

[Shawn Robbins]

The model makes no sense since it came out on Memorial Day weekend, didn't it? Won't play out much like it.

 

It'll be more similar than you might think. The biggest difference is the Sunday drop, which with Father's Day tomorrow, will basically act like the Sunday before Memorial Day.

[Spidey Freak]

But that is not WB's fault.  There are 100's of empty seats at sporting events and the game is still called a sellout.  This is because corporations buy the tickets, give them to their clients or use them as a tax write off.  Not everyone shows up to the game but those sales count.  It's the same scenario here.

 

But is that analogy really right when talking about box office sales? I mean, applying this logic, we may have future blockbusters selling 200M dollars worth of tickets to various corporations to claim record destroying Thursdays and ODs/OWs!! Even if only 5% of those tickets are actually sold to customers/employees etc.

Edited June 15, 2013 by Spidey Freak

[riczhang]

If the argument is that Walmart didn't sell all the tickets, them 12M proves it.Walmart had 1M tickets to sell.$9 2D$11 3DAssuming they were 50/50(2D/3D), if Walmart sold all tickets it would be more than 12M...Am I correct? Or has this forum lowered my intelligence in the last 24 hours?

That doesn't seem right...... A million tickets for 12 million dollars means that each ticket was $12. A huge premium on the average ticket price but slightly cheaper than what the price is in big cities.

[Biggestgeekever]

Bit of a come down from from the $50+m estimates last night, but I'm not upset about that.  It's not impossible it'll have a Saturday increase, but I think BO.com's estimate looks good.

[jse]

8 and 11 with all shows at 7 PM so I just don't understand the bitching regarding the previews. It's no different than IM3's previews so stop whining because this topic is becoming very tedious. 

 

I was curious because somebody from reddit claimed to have bought tickets for iirc $2 at walmart. I dunno if that's true, and if it is, if there are regional differences in the Walmart prices as well.

[baumer]

Anyway, enough with the Walmart. The movie will make +100m OW, which I didn't think would happen, so here's to Man of Steel and swimming with bow-legged women.