Weekend Estimates: Thor TDW 86.1M, Ender 10.25, Free Birds 11.2, Grav 8.4, BG 11.3, Last Vegas 11.1

[ChD]

I predicted 85. Ain't even mad.

[The Stingray]

I predicted 97m. I'm happy.

[Fancyarcher]

Disappointing opening is disappointing and with this being an average film with CF around the corner...I am slightly worried for Thor 2. Of course, it will still increase over Thor 1 DOM, but this shows on a domestic level anyway that the Avengers effect is wearing off. However, I still expect this to do fairly well OS like around 650M OS.

 

Good opening weekend is good.

[Fancyarcher]

Seems will be around same on IMDB as well or better

 

7.7 with near 50k votes 

 

IMDB ratings are not a good judge of how well liked a movie is.

[ecstasy]

I predicted 85. Ain't even mad.

 

 

Yeah I was right there with you. But I got greedy.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

I am singing "Happy Happy Joy Joy" right now.

[ecstasy]

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice 27s

Oh, how the mighty have fallen--2 1/2 years ago, 3D accounted for 60% of the domestic debut for THOR, while THOR 2 hit just 39%.

[keysersoze123]

IMDB ratings are not a good judge of how well liked a movie is.

 

IMDB Is by far the most popular movie website in the world. Its 47th most visited website in the world(including googles,facebook,youtube etc). As a comparison rottentomatoes is 633 and mojo is 2597. One interesting fact is deadline.com is more popular than boxofficemojo.com in US.

 

So I would take imdb over RT or flixster for sure. yahoo movies used to be very popular few years back(Xiayun and couple of others used to guess friday numbers with yahoo rating numbers) but currently way down.

[ecstasy]

IMDB Is by far the most popular movie website in the world. Its 47th most visited website in the world(including googles,facebook,youtube etc). As a comparison rottentomatoes is 633 and mojo is 2597. One interesting fact is deadline.com is more popular than boxofficemojo.com in US.

 

So I would take imdb over RT or flixster for sure. yahoo movies used to be very popular few years back(Xiayun and couple of others used to guess friday numbers with yahoo rating numbers) but currently way down.

 

It's popular but its full of trolls. It takes a while for the real rating to settle in. I'd wait until after a few weeks from opening.

[Fancyarcher]

IMDB Is by far the most popular movie website in the world. Its 47th most visited website in the world(including googles,facebook,youtube etc). As a comparison rottentomatoes is 633 and mojo is 2597. One interesting fact is deadline.com is more popular than boxofficemojo.com in US.

 

So I would take imdb over RT or flixster for sure. yahoo movies used to be very popular few years back(Xiayun and couple of others used to guess friday numbers with yahoo rating numbers) but currently way down.

 

IMDB ratings tend to be voted by people who don't actually see the film (at least the early votes), that's why they’re not very reliable.

 

I remember Captain Phillips started out with a 5.4, and 12 Years a Slave was in the 6's.

[ecstasy]

IMDB ratings tend to be voted by people who don't actually see the film (at least the early votes), that's why they’re not very reliable.

 

I remember Captain Phillips started out with a 5.4, and 12 Years a Slave was in the 6's.

 

 

Exactly right.

[Moviefanatic]

Guessing this will squeak pass 200 million. Wonder how much CF will hurt it?

[keysersoze123]

IMDB ratings tend to be voted by people who don't actually see the film (at least the early votes), that's why they’re not very reliable.

 

I remember Captain Phillips started out with a 5.4, and 12 Years a Slave was in the 6's.

 

Ratings are skewed when the numbers are low. Once number of ratings increase it kind of averages out. ALso you would see bunch of fanboys voting 10 before even seeing the movie. That is always an issue with any rating site. Since imdb gets tons of vote ultimately its better than other sources by sheer number.

[ecstasy]

Guessing this will squeak pass 200 million. Wonder how much CF will hurt it?

 

 

Guessing a lot.

 

A behemoth like catching fire takes no prisoners on opening weekend.

[keysersoze123]

Anyway ratings for CP and 12YoS are where it should be now(over 8/10). Movies which are truly liked will be able to recover from initial low ratings.

[Fancyarcher]

Ratings are skewed when the numbers are low. Once number of ratings increase it kind of averages out. ALso you would see bunch of fanboys voting 10 before even seeing the movie. That is always an issue with any rating site. Since imdb gets tons of vote ultimately its better than other sources by sheer number.

 

 

Weird logic, doesn't really work.

[ecstasy]

So is Guru the only one reporting estimates? I didn't see any others.

[redfirebird2008]

IMDB is still a drop in the bucket compared to everyone who sees these movies. Avatar only has 623k votes even though something like 300m people have seen it around the world.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

IMDB is still a drop in the bucket compared to everyone who sees these movies. Avatar only has 623k votes even though something like 300m people have seen it around the world.

When consider margin of error. having 623 votes is pretty good amount. 

[redfirebird2008]

When consider margin of error. having 623 votes is pretty good amount. 

 

0.2% or less of the people who have seen the film actually voted on it at IMDB. That's an extremely small sample.