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grim22

Weekend Estimates: Thor TDW 86.1M, Ender 10.25, Free Birds 11.2, Grav 8.4, BG 11.3, Last Vegas 11.1

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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iceroll Global Phenomenon

iceroll

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BO.com is putting in friday numbers.

 

 

EG is down 70%.... ouch

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

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I respect your opinion on film here more than most, but I disagree with your outlook on the new SW film.  When Menace came out it did massive numbers.  Without looking at what it adjusts to now, it has to be over 500 mill.  And with the interest there will be with SW this time, simply because of the returning cast, the opening weekend will have to be high.  How could it not?  Sith, which came out after the ostensibly hated Clones, managed a 50 million dollar opening day.  That, at the time, was unprecedented. What reason would it have this time around, to not do well opening weekend?  I agree that perhaps some of the massive predictions will not come true, but why would it open to under 100 mill like some are suggesting?  This is the apex franchise and it has enough loonies to come out in droves opening weekend and with the next weekend being Christmas weekend, it's bound to have a great hold.  

 

600 mill?  Doubtful.  500 mill?  Difficult to see the future is.  But 400, 450?  That seems very reasonable and if the film is better liked than EP 1 and 2, it should have a shot at 500 mill.

 

I hope I am wrong. But at this point I want to set my expectations low. Prequels have brought down the aura of SW movies and I am not sure the teens today will be that that crazy about the franchise as teens of late 90's were. Plus we have not seen any big blockbuster movie retaining admissions of decade back. Its extremely difficult.

 

Let us wait for trailer. I might still change my mind but for now I will stick with around Sith numbers for SW7 and around 1/1.1B WW.

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iceroll Global Phenomenon

iceroll

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I respect your opinion on film here more than most, but I disagree with your outlook on the new SW film.  When Menace came out it did massive numbers.  Without looking at what it adjusts to now, it has to be over 500 mill.  And with the interest there will be with SW this time, simply because of the returning cast, the opening weekend will have to be high.  How could it not?  Sith, which came out after the ostensibly hated Clones, managed a 50 million dollar opening day.  That, at the time, was unprecedented. What reason would it have this time around, to not do well opening weekend?  I agree that perhaps some of the massive predictions will not come true, but why would it open to under 100 mill like some are suggesting?  This is the apex franchise and it has enough loonies to come out in droves opening weekend and with the next weekend being Christmas weekend, it's bound to have a great hold.  

 

600 mill?  Doubtful.  500 mill?  Difficult to see the future is.  But 400, 450?  That seems very reasonable and if the film is better liked than EP 1 and 2, it should have a shot at 500 mill.

400m is never a given for anything.  People were predicting that for The Hobbit, which failed and Toy Story 3 which barely made it over.

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lab276 Global Phenomenon

lab276

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400m is never a given for anything.  People were predicting that for The Hobbit, which failed and Toy Story 3 which barely made it over.

I disagree, sure it's only 15m, but when you say "barely made it" it conjures images of crawling at an agonising pace. When it crossed 400m, it was still making over 1m a week.
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Shawn Robbins Global Phenomenon

Shawn Robbins

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400m is never a given for anything.  People were predicting that for The Hobbit, which failed and Toy Story 3 which barely made it over.

 

Exactly. But at the same time, there was definitely precedence for those kinds of predictions. There's a big difference between someone saying something is locked and guaranteed to happen (which I don't think Baumer is doing) and those who are merely making a prediction. The line between the two tends to be forgotten a lot of the time, and I'm sure it won't be any different with Star Wars. It's not that big predictions for it don't make sense; just that there's always an argument for the opposite result (and everything in between).

Edited by ShawnMR
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Ajde Indie Sensation

Ajde

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Came in hoping for a good hold for Gravity.....

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice 13m

GRAVITY: $2.30M Friday (est) / $225.01M Domestic Total / 2,720 Locations / $846 Location Avg. #Gravity

 

Nice!

And YASSSS :circles: :circles: :worthy:
Go Cuaron, space, shuttles and Sandra's legs !!!

Thor doing around what I had expected. Not a great number imo, but still nothing to sneez at, it's a decent number for it.

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Neo Global Phenomenon

Neo

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Similary Avatar/Avengers sequel will also drop. Its inevitable as the 1st flicks are too big.

If the OW are big enough I don't think they will. A 250M OW for AOU would need slightly under a 2.5X and with no competition as of now 2.6X could be lowballing it. 

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