Weekend Estimates: Thor TDW 86.1M, Ender 10.25, Free Birds 11.2, Grav 8.4, BG 11.3, Last Vegas 11.1

[ddddeeee]

What the hell is YA???

Young adult.

[John Marston]

 

http://variety.com/2013/film/box-office/box-office-thor-the-dark-world-strong-with-estimated-85-million-opening-1200812597/

 

Box Office: ‘Thor: The Dark World’ Strong With Estimated $85 Million Opening

 

 

 

85m a bit too optimistic

[keysersoze123]

to do the kinds of huge numbers many are predicting for Hunger Games. It would have to explode in pretty much every country. Do you really think the books and movie have this kind of gigantic popularity in every country? 

 

I think so. Look at below article and that is 15 months ago. The series has potential to grow OS for sure. We will know once you see CF's OS numbers.

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngaudiosi/2012/08/17/hunger-games-trilogy-beats-harry-potter-series-to-become-all-time-bestselling-book-series/

[Lordmandeep]

So, 60% drop next week?

 

 

I highly doubt it.

 

Next weekend is wide open for young kid crowd and even IM3 did not drop 60% with such a massive opening. 

[K1stpierre]

Why does this not apply to THG franchis? 

My point is that it seems marvel fanboys predict the THG series to drop all the time because they make the argument "the first acted like a sequel and thus everything else will fall and not reach it". But then they predict their sequels to do better than the first film that acted like a sequel. I don't get why marvel fanboys think their films will always increase vs. THG where it couldn't possibly increase.

[spizzer]

So with 31.6M, if it follows Thor's IM of 2.86 (again, without midnights, I've been doing this for years), it will hit 77.2M for the weekend.

[Impact]

I highly doubt it.

 

Next weekend is wide open for young kid crowd and even IM3 did not drop 60% with such a massive opening. 

Wide open for every type of movie really.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

I think a 58% drop next weekend is in order.

Edited November 9, 2013 by CaptainAmerica

[keysersoze123]

Why does this not apply to THG franchis? 

 

it can. But it has an advantage that the books can bring in new audience to make up for those who may skip.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

So with 31.6M, if it follows Thor's IM of 2.86 (again, without midnights, I've been doing this for years), it will hit 77.2M for the weekend.

That is beautiful for Thor. Edited November 9, 2013 by CaptainAmerica

[Lordmandeep]

Its hard to tell how films like Thor 2 behave in Nov. 

[Lordmandeep]

My point is that it seems marvel fanboys predict the THG series to drop all the time because they make the argument "the first acted like a sequel and thus everything else will fall and not reach it". But then they predict their sequels to do better than the first film that acted like a sequel. I don't get why marvel fanboys think their films will always increase vs. THG where it couldn't possibly increase.

 

 

I think TA 2 will drop domestic for sure.

 

I think they sometimes see overseas numbers increasingly like crazy and think the same will happen domestic. 

[Impact]

For CF I am seeing 175/400 right now-oddly I never saw the trailer till yesterday.

[LonePirate]

Those Friday Thor numbers must be painful for all the film's fans, especially those who were predicting $250M or more, let alone anything above that. It would seem plenty of people who attended The Avengers and Iron Man 3 on their opening weekends saw the trailers and commercials for this film and they went "meh."

 

Ender's Game crashed as expected. 

 

That expansion for 12 Years a Slave is underwhelming but not too unexpected. For all of the raves the film has been receiving, its grosses have disappointed every single weekend so far.

[Impact]

I don't see anything wrong with Thor 2's OW really, it is kind of hard to compare it as there are no other Marvel films in the month of November.

[Lordmandeep]

I think everyone agrees if it opened in May next year it would open higher I think no doubt. 

[John Marston]

I highly doubt it.

 

Next weekend is wide open for young kid crowd and even IM3 did not drop 60% with such a massive opening. 

 

 

yeah but it will still be over 50% likely. And the third weekend will likely see a larger drop than usual thanks to Catching Fire

[stuart360]

For CF I am seeing 175/400 right now-oddly I never saw the trailer till yesterday.

 

I think both numbers will be almost exactly that, maybe within 10m on BOTH numbers.

[druv10]

So, 60% drop next week?

 

Much worse, it's pulled from theaters. 

Edited November 9, 2013 by druv10

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Much worse, it's pulled from theaters.

And they put the First Avenger back in there's to have it pass Thor's gross.