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Dementeleus

Nov 22-24 #s CF: $158,074,286 actual | Dark Knight triumphant after all

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Catching Fire will hold well next weekend since it's Thanksgiving and THG's fanbase skews much more towards adults than HP or Twilight. I'd predict a $65-$75 million 2nd weekend which would be about $288 million, with about $30-$35 million the following since CF isn't a kids movie so it'll hold a little better, bringing... $337 million. Against Hobbit 2, it'll get $17-$19 million since the Hobbit fanbase doesn't really contain teenage girls or older women (both key demos for HG), earning $364 million. Losing theaters will cause it to drop to $8-$10 million the following weekend, $379 million. Christmas will help it hold, earning $8.5 million over the next weekend. This gives it $400 million. Another $7 million the following weekend brings it total to $419 million. 

 

I'd say $425 million is the ceiling for CF with $375 million as the floor 

 

I think that's a bit optimistic for next weekend.  I think it falls between 60-65 mill next weekend.

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