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2014 Best Picture Prediction thread!

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If Birdman doesn't win BP, then something is wrong. Just saw it. It's an amazing film. No way does it miss a nom.

 

Boyhood is more deserving than Birdman, but Birdman should definitely be a contender.

 

Besides, the Oscars aren't always about which film is actually better.

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selma trailer out. looks great. going to be a contender for sure

 

the contenders will be

 

1. unbroken*

2. birdman

3. selma

4. boyhood

5. gone girl

6. imitation game

7. american sniper

8. nightcrawler

9. whiplash

10. a most violent year

 

*  = my predicted winner, unbroken is perfect oscar bait.

Edited by Halba
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selma trailer out. looks great. going to be a contender for sure

 

the contenders will be

 

1. unbroken*

2. birdman

3. selma

4. boyhood

5. gone girl

6. imitation game

7. american sniper

8. nightcrawler

9. whiplash

10. a most violent year

 

*  = my predicted winner, unbroken is perfect oscar bait.

I'd swap Nightcrawler for Into the Woods. It's the token musical

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I have always thought that an MLK biopic would be huge Oscar bait and stand a strong chance winning BP. The only thing against it is that 12YAS won last year, and the Academy rarely awards two movies of similar subject matter. Yah, I know slavery is different than black rights, but really it is a historical progression. You go from slavery to the civil rights movement.

 

Birdman is a great movie, but I think it is to avant-garde to really pull a BP win. Boyhood is an interesting concept. But, Selma has the mainstream appeal. It seems like we might be in for another year without a clear front runner.

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Right now...

 

Almost sure

1. BIRDMAN (though it still has to reach bigger audiences)

2. BOYHOOD (though it opened too early)

 

Strong chances

3. GONE GIRL (though it has some detractors)

4. THE IMITATION GAME (though it's too early)

5. FOXCATCHER (though the hype started too early)

 

Healthy possition

6. SELMA (though it will have to fight against so many quality Christmas contenders)

7. THEORY OF EVERYTHING (though it barely has strong names attached to it)

8. WHIPLASH (though it's too little and the hype can disappear as time passes)

 

Unsure possition

9. UNBROKEN (many things on its side, but remains to be seen)

10. INTERSTELLAR (can Nolan's name carry this to a nom?)

 

Possible surge

11. INTO THE WOODS (they love musicals and huge casting efforts)

12. AMERICAN SNIPER (they love war dramas)

13. WILD (they love inspiring stories carried by a stand-alone actor)

14. A MOST VIOLENT YEAR (they love December pics)

15. MR TURNER (they love biopics and brits)

16. BIG EYES (they love biopics and to recognize established directors)

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I have always thought that an MLK biopic would be huge Oscar bait and stand a strong chance winning BP. The only thing against it is that 12YAS won last year, and the Academy rarely awards two movies of similar subject matter. Yah, I know slavery is different than black rights, but really it is a historical progression. You go from slavery to the civil rights movement.

 

Birdman is a great movie, but I think it is to avant-garde to really pull a BP win. Boyhood is an interesting concept. But, Selma has the mainstream appeal. It seems like we might be in for another year without a clear front runner.

 

Too early to even call a lock in the nominees list. How can we start to discuss which film will be honoured with the Oscar?

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Right now...

 

Almost sure

1. BIRDMAN (though it still has to reach bigger audiences)

2. BOYHOOD (though it opened too early)

 

Strong chances

3. GONE GIRL (though it has some detractors)

4. THE IMITATION GAME (though it's too early)

5. FOXCATCHER (though the hype started too early)

 

Healthy possition

6. SELMA (though it will have to fight against so many quality Christmas contenders)

7. THEORY OF EVERYTHING (though it barely has strong names attached to it)

8. WHIPLASH (though it's too little and the hype can disappear as time passes)

 

Unsure possition

9. UNBROKEN (many things on its side, but remains to be seen)

10. INTERSTELLAR (can Nolan's name carry this to a nom?)

 

Possible surge

11. INTO THE WOODS (they love musicals and huge casting efforts)

12. AMERICAN SNIPER (they love war dramas)

13. WILD (they love inspiring stories carried by a stand-alone actor)

14. A MOST VIOLENT YEAR (they love December pics)

15. MR TURNER (they love biopics and brits)

16. BIG EYES (they love biopics and to recognize established directors)

interstellar wont even get a nomination. foxcatcher is too dark for oscar voters. theory of everything is a good but not great movie.  mr turner looks brilliant, should go up a few levels. also nightcrawler deserves mention.

 

once selma gets more RT reviews around Dec 25th, it'll go to top place.

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interstellar wont even get a nomination. foxcatcher is too dark for oscar voters. theory of everything is a good but not great movie.  mr turner looks brilliant, should go up a few levels. also nightcrawler deserves mention.

 

once selma gets more RT reviews around Dec 25th, it'll go to top place.

 

As usual, keep telling yourself just that.

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interstellar wont even get a nomination. foxcatcher is too dark for oscar voters. theory of everything is a good but not great movie.  mr turner looks brilliant, should go up a few levels. also nightcrawler deserves mention.

 

once selma gets more RT reviews around Dec 25th, it'll go to top place.

 

Interstellar's chances depend on the reception of films yet to be tested. BO legs could help.

Foxcatcher, too dark? There are a lot of dark films nommed in the past!

Your personal opinion regarding a movie has nothing to do with the chances of that film to be rewarded. Theory of everything has a solid early WOM, no matter what I think about it. And the theme is really Oscar friendly.

Mr Turner have been already showed in the UK but the hype isn't strong enough, IMO. It can still gain traction

Nightcrawler is like Drive, but in a minor scale. Praised, but barely seen once the Oscars are announced. Gone girl is already overshadowing it

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I have always thought that an MLK biopic would be huge Oscar bait and stand a strong chance winning BP. The only thing against it is that 12YAS won last year, and the Academy rarely awards two movies of similar subject matter. Yah, I know slavery is different than black rights, but really it is a historical progression. You go from slavery to the civil rights movement.

 

Birdman is a great movie, but I think it is to avant-garde to really pull a BP win. Boyhood is an interesting concept. But, Selma has the mainstream appeal. It seems like we might be in for another year without a clear front runner.

 

If Selma is as great as early reviews say it is then I think it's the winner.

 

MLK is such an immense and important public figure, whose words and voice are known even to school children.  Much of the Academy which skews older also lived during his era, this isn't just history to them but part of their lives.  If Selma manages to successfully portray and evoke the man and the Civil Rights movement I don't see what movie will beat it.

Edited by TalismanRing
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If Selma is as great as early reviews say it is then I think it's the winner.

 

MLK is such an immense and important public figure, whose words and voice are known even to school children.  Much of the Academy which skews older also lived during his era, this isn't just history to them but part of their lives.  If Selma manages to successfully portray and evoke the man and the Civil Rights movement I don't see what movie will beat it.

 

agree. theres enuff reviews i posted in the selma bo forum, that suggest its the winner. many have attended the AFI screening. selma is considered to be the best picture screened so far in 2014. boyhood is too indie for oscar voters. imitation game has a gay protagonist- no no for conservative oscar voters. only one that can really topple selma is unbroken. 

 

who cares theory of everything. it aint going to win any awards. movie is only RT ave rating 7.4/10. nomination aint a big deal- this is a category with up to 10 nominees.

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