Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[CaptNathanBrittles]

8 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

I feel like second weekend drop will be in low 30s (because low thur number and general backloadedness) and third weekend (around NYE) under 10%. That would mean (with beefed weekdays 26-30.12.) around 500M DOM at the end of the year

 

A 30% drop would be incredible due to the 24th being a Saturday.

 

The last three times Christmas Eve fell on a Saturday:

 

ROGUE ONE - 59% drop

SHERLOCK HOLMES 2 - 49% drop

KING KONG - 58% drop

 

I would say anything in or around 40% would be very, very good for AVATAR 2.

 

3rd weekend though it could see single digit decrease or even an increase.

 

[ZeeSoh]

22 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Hopefully a 45-50mil Sarurday, and a 35-40mil Sunday.

 

I dont see why thats so impossible when the tracking thread have been saying how backloaded the pre-sakes were for the weekend.

If you look at the tracking thread, projections for Friday were around 35m which were very close to the 36 million estimates that we got. Right now projections for Sunday from the tracking thread are 43, 46 and 50m by InceptionQz and Katniss. IF it follows The Batman then Saturday should be around 40-41m. I think Saturday should be closer to 43-35m. But tracking for Sat-Sun is not as comprehensive as those of Thursday so numbers can swing a bit.

 

17 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

In regards to China, a tiny piece of good news is that the first film 'only' made 200mil there on its initial releasre, and even with the covid problems, i'm expecting more than that with this film.

 

Also who knows what the situation will be in China 3 or 4 weeks from now. I'm sure the film wont be going to streaming for a few months yet.

Current projection from Maoyan is around 145m. 200 million will be difficult from current OW estimate of around 60 million. As for the covid situation, that is up in the air. We cannot tell how things will progress but for now situation seems to be getting worse by the day and I doubt it will subside in a few weeks time. Plus with the Chinese New Year around in a months time, big local movies will be releasing which will take away screens and money from the movie. 

 

3 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

I feel like second weekend drop will be in low 30s (because low thur number and general backloadedness) and third weekend (around NYE) under 10%. That would mean (with beefed weekdays 26-30.12.) around 500M DOM at the end of the year

low 30's seem optimistic given that Saturday is Christmas Eve. Last time Christmas Eve was in this calendar configuration was in 2016 I think and Rogue One dropped more than 55%. I don't think Avatar will drop that much but its 3 hours plus run time will have an effect

[Nikostar]

Look on the bright side. Atleast Avatar 3 won't have these ridiculous high boxoffice prediction and won't be looked at as a disappointment weekend

[Deep Wang]

7 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

Look on the bright side. Atleast Avatar 3 won't have these ridiculous high boxoffice prediction and won't be looked at as a disappointment weekend

 

[JimiQ]

16 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

If you look at the tracking thread, projections for Friday were around 35m which were very close to the 36 million estimates that we got. Right now projections for Sunday from the tracking thread are 43, 46 and 50m by InceptionQz and Katniss. IF it follows The Batman then Saturday should be around 40-41m. I think Saturday should be closer to 43-35m. But tracking for Sat-Sun is not as comprehensive as those of Thursday so numbers can swing a bit.

 

Current projection from Maoyan is around 145m. 200 million will be difficult from current OW estimate of around 60 million. As for the covid situation, that is up in the air. We cannot tell how things will progress but for now situation seems to be getting worse by the day and I doubt it will subside in a few weeks time. Plus with the Chinese New Year around in a months time, big local movies will be releasing which will take away screens and money from the movie. 

 

low 30's seem optimistic given that Saturday is Christmas Eve. Last time Christmas Eve was in this calendar configuration was in 2016 I think and Rogue One dropped more than 55%. I don't think Avatar will drop that much but its 3 hours plus run time will have an effect

Rogue One had $29M thursday and also it’s a star wars movie, eg more frontloaded by devoted fans.

Avatar fans can wait for better seat (or yet better format)

[Sheldon Cr]

1 hour ago, stuart360 said:

In regards to China, a tiny piece of good news is that the first film 'only' made 200mil there on its initial releasre, and even with the covid problems, i'm expecting more than that with this film.

 

Also who knows what the situation will be in China 3 or 4 weeks from now. I'm sure the film wont be going to streaming for a few months yet.

Exactly. They may also re-release it like kayom said at better time. But I too think things may get better. Friends in china also believe things will get better brother Stewart  and 300-400m  in china. So don't rule out China just yet. Indeed we got lots of weeks to go 

[Sheldon Cr]

1 hour ago, dignam said:

 

 

I cant imagine someone als for the roll of jake sully. He is perfect for that roll.

Noctis just wants the film to flop. I'm glad not many share his opinion. Worthington definitely is perfectly cast here and likeable. Loved his work in both films. 

[ZeeSoh]

28 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

Rogue One had $29M thursday and also it’s a star wars movie, eg more frontloaded by devoted fans.

Avatar fans can wait for better seat (or yet better format)

Yeah I know, which is why I said Avatar won't drop as much as Rogue One did. But did you also ignore the other examples that CaptNAthan gave? I am not saying low 30% drop is impossible but based on past data it seems improbable. 

[Porthos]

45 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Current projection from Maoyan is around 145m. 200 million will be difficult from current OW estimate of around 60 million.

 

@Cap can back me up on this, but check out the timestamp from a post I made in a PM thread with her....

 

On 12/15/2022 at 1:18 AM, Porthos said:

 

DOM OW > China Total???   

 

 

(bolding and enlarging here for effect)

 

I was so so badly tempted to make that post in the WE thread on Thursday, but it would have been a shit post then, so I was a good boy.

 

Now???  Well, probably not happening, but it's much less of a shitpost now.

 

[jason1230]

2 hours ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Ignore button is your friend.

Where is the ignore button? Bc I been wanting to know for awhile lol

[Sheldon Cr]

So let's see.

55m Friday

48-60m + Sat and 38-48 m Sunday?

 

Would be funny if there are barely any drops and both Sat and Sunday go up higher. Would love 148-160.

 

Interested weekdays coming up and Ow2.

 

Edited December 17, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Editing post

[Nikostar]

3 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

So let's see.

55m Friday

54-60m + Sat and 37-48 m Sunday?

 

Would be funny if there are barely any drops and both Sat and Sunday go up higher. Would love 148-160

 

Good luck with those numbers 

[ZeeSoh]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

@Cap can back me up on this, but check out the timestamp from a post I made in a PM thread with her....

 

 

(bolding and enlarging here for effect)

 

I was so so badly tempted to make that post in the WE thread on Thursday, but it would have been a shit post then, so I was a good boy.

 

Now???  Well, probably not happening, but it's much less of a shitpost now.

 

There were posts in the China thread that were suggesting China OW could be higher than Dom OW. It has gone from that to this. In defence of those posters though, no one understood the situation nor foresaw that things in China could deteriorate this quickly. 

 

2 minutes ago, jason1230 said:

Where is the ignore button? Bc I been wanting to know for awhile lol

If on desktop, hover your mouse over a user's name and the pop up box will have an option to ignore user. If on mobile page then click on the 3 horizontal bars on top right, then go to accounts and then to ignored users section where you will have to manually enter the persons name

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, jason1230 said:

Where is the ignore button? Bc I been wanting to know for awhile lol

 

Hover your mouse over another user, like so:

 

 

Click on the Ignore button on the lower right corner and you're set.

 

You can also manage Ignored Users from your profile:

 

 

At the bottom where it says "Ignored Users", click on it and you can add/subtract members at will.

[Ronin46]

6 minutes ago, jason1230 said:

Where is the ignore button? Bc I been wanting to know for awhile lol

 

Scroll over the users name and then on the right hand side further down is the ignore button.

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said:

There were posts in the China thread that were suggesting China OW could be higher than Dom OW. It has gone from that to this. In defence of those posters though, no one understood the situation nor foresaw that things in China could deteriorate this quickly. 

 

 

Even Maoyan had it as such (or relatively close) I believe. I want to say the initial projection was about 125/360?

[Skim Beeble]

11 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

So let's see.

55m Friday

48-60m + Sat and 38-48 m Sunday?

 

Would be funny if there are barely any drops and both Sat and Sunday go up higher. Would love 148-160.

 

Interested weekdays coming up and Ow2.

 

Friday was 53m. It's not going up 2m from estimates

[Cap]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

@Cap can back me up on this,

 

Girl, you and me:

 

[jason1230]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Hover your mouse over another user, like so:

 

ooh I been using my iPad that’s why I didn’t see it haha, thanks 

[ZeeSoh]

13 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Even Maoyan had it as such (or relatively close) I believe. I want to say the initial projection was about 125/360?

Only thing I could find was Maoyan projections from Wed or Thursday and the OW projection was 836m Yuan (124m USD) and 2500m Yuan (358m USD) total.