Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[honeycookiez]

17 hours ago, NCsoft said:

Although I know the "most viewed trailer within 24 hours" reported by studio is a very flawed metric to gauge interest, I still want to see what that number would be for Avatar 2.

 

But with the teaser being leaked almost two weeks before online release, that view count is probably going to be dampened a bit, most who are curious would have seen it one way or another.

 

imo I don't think Avatar needs to show up in that chart to attract the audience, and yes it's a flawed metric but in fairness, most of the films in that chart (Spiderman NWH, Avengers team-up films) had box office records to prove somehow that metric is worth the deal.  

[SLAM!]

14 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

There doesn't need to be any fanboy-driven fever, just general curiosity driven by the success and impact of Avatar, the past work of James Cameron, and the production schedule of Avatar 2 — how long it's taken to develop, and all the delays. Avatar 2 has become a minor myth at this point, and a lot of people who aren't necessarily convinced that they want to watch Avatar 2 in December will be tuning in to see what the teaser has to offer. That, and as Charlie mentions, Avatar and James Cameron are powerhouses in the most populous countries in the world, India and China, both of which will help to massively propel trailer views.

 

Not saying it's necessarily going to break any records, but the trailer views will definitely be very good.

Indian audiences being a fan of Avatar is significant because I don’t think the country’s audiences are as interested in Hollywood movies. Indian audiences usually get the most excited about films from their own industries. So if Avatar can market to them whereas a film like Uncharted opens to just $600k, that’s pretty darn good!

[SnokesLegs]

52 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

 

the trailer won't beat any 24 hours record. Leak or not, release with Doctor Strange or not. I'm not saying the movie can't be a huge success when it's coming on theaters on Christmans but right now just there isn't that kind of fever. 

The trailer will have depressed views compared to what it would have had if it hadn’t been attached to DS2, there’s no doubt about that, so it’ll almost be a pointless metric trying to use those figures to gauge how interested people are in the film. It’ll be similar to how the first DS2 trailer wasn’t setting the world on fire with its online debut after it’d already been seen by everyone who stayed to the end of NWH.

[AniNate]

I am thinking this won't have the immense upfront demand of a Marvel or Star Wars movie. Much as I will defend it as having cultural influence, it has been awhile and I think it will need to earn its audience again (and JC has admitted as much)

[Deuce66]

John Campea discusses Avatar from the perspective of theatre owners and the industry.

 

Go to 28:00 in the video.

 

 

 

 

[Deuce66]

I don't understand why people continue to compare a standalone movie like Avatar to massive franchises like Marvel/DC/Star Wars/Star Trek etc....the franchise building for Avatar is in its infancy. I think by the time the third movie has rolled out in 2024 then we'll be able to start with some meaningful comparisons. 

[Deuce66]

If the IMDB popularity chart means anything, the weekly update shows that Way of Water has jumped 66 spots to #24 versus the prior week, that would indicate a significant increase in activity. Even the first movie jumped 80 spots. 

[vale9001]

17 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I am thinking this won't have the immense upfront demand of a Marvel or Star Wars movie. Much as I will defend it as having cultural influence, it has been awhile and I think it will need to earn its audience again (and JC has admitted as much)

 

yes this. I can see people going to watch it on christmas as "fantasy" movie of the holidays, so it's gonna make money when it's time to make money but right now 7 months before a big part of its potential audience still doesn't care. Months ago Empire magazine released a first pic from the movie and i didn't see any buzz or discussion in my feed on social networks, same for the images of some days ago. 

 

 

[Valonqar]

Unlike big franchise movies, Avatar didn't start off with a record-breaking OW, not even close. It was legs/WOM sensation but 69 or 70M OW is what the biggest MCU movies make in a little more than half a day now. So I don't expect it to open with 200-300M OW. It isn't Avatar pattern so no one should panic. I also don't expect it to break trailer records or come close. Its power was bringing into theaters audience that rarely went to the cinema. So unlike franchises with really big built in fandom that always watches trailers 100 times on different platforms, Avatar is more of a casual audience thing. 

Edited May 2, 2022 by Valonqar

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

Unlike big franchise movies, Avatar didn't start off with a record-breaking OW, not even close. It was legs/WOM sensation but 69 or 70M OW is what the biggest MCU movies make in a little more than half a day now. So I don't expect it to open with 200-300M OW. It isn't Avatar pattern so no one should panic. I also don't expect it to break trailer records or come close. Its power was bringing into theaters audience that rarely went to the cinema. So unlike franchises with really big built in fandom that always watches trailers 100 times on different platforms, Avatar is more of a casual audience thing. 

70 back then was a pretty strong opening though.

[Deuce66]

The history of Cameron directed feature films.

 

Title/Year/Domestic Gross/Domestic Rank in year

 

Terminator - 1984 - $38.4 M - Ranked 21st

Aliens - 1986 - $85.2 M - #7

The Abyss - 1989 - $54.5 M - #24

T2 - 1991 - $205.9 M - #1

True Lies - 1994 - $146.3 M - #3

Titanic - 1997 - $659.4 M - #1

Avatar - 2009 - $760.1 M - #1 

 

Three number 1's out of 7, the only one that would be considered close to a disappointment was The Abyss although it eventually broke even.

 

No way I'm betting against the history.  

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

13 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

70 back then was a pretty strong opening though.

#5 OW of 2009, I believe. Matching that this year would likely require over $190M. FWIW, it’s opening was 28th all-time (at the time) and an equivalent today is $143M so that is my target.

Edited May 2, 2022 by MultiverseXXR

[Deep Wang]

6 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

70 back then was a pretty strong opening though.

 

$77m is especially huge for an truly original IP.  There weren't any books, tv shows, comics or anything this was based on. 

 

 

[Deuce66]

7 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Unlike big franchise movies, Avatar didn't start off with a record-breaking OW, not even close. It was legs/WOM sensation but 69 or 70M OW is what the biggest MCU movies make in a little more than half a day now. So I don't expect it to open with 200-300M OW. It isn't Avatar pattern so no one should panic. I also don't expect it to break trailer records or come close. Its power was bringing into theaters audience that rarely went to the cinema. So unlike franchises with really big built in fandom that always watches trailers 100 times on different platforms, Avatar is more of a casual audience thing. 

 

Titanic was the same way, there was so much "negativity" towards both these movies before release that they opened soft but then when word came back the floodgates opened. They actually did better in week#2!!! which is unheard of with almost all blockbusters. 

 

Titanic - Domestic

Dec 19-25 $52.969 Million

Dec 26-Jan 1: $71.183

Jan 2-8: $45.012

 

etc....and it just kept going it didn't drop out of #1 until Apr 3-9

 

Avatar - Domestic

Dec 18-24 $137.1 Million

Dec 25-31 $146.5 

 

stayed at #1 t'il Feb 5-11 

 

SW - The Force Awakens

Dec 18-24 $390.9 Million

Dec 25-31 $261.1 

Jan 1-7 $118.4 

 

stayed #1 for the first three weeks only 

[Valonqar]

Thanks for the numbers! 

 

I'm not saying that sequel will perform in the same way cause sequels behave differently from originals (sequelitis) but if a sequel really clicks than it can have formidable legs in its own right. I'm just saying that we shouldn't expect MCU pattern of gigantic OWs.

[Joel M]

For Titanic the doom and gloom I think went all the way up to the weekend of the release. I was too young to know this from memory but the articles from the time give a general sigh of relief "Not a flop" feeling. It probably won't be a bust, it has good wom so it'll recoup it's budget over the holidays etc.

 

With Avatar and because it was more modern times where online hype was something more quantifiable I think the negative buzz flipped a bit sooner than that but I don't remember exactly when. August 2009 the consensus was "lol what are these smurfs? is Cameron crazy?" and by mid December no one really was holding their breath that this might flop. But I'm drawing a blank on when exactly the switch happened. Was it the full 3min trailer? the early reviews? somewhere in between? 

[ThomasNicole]

Adjusted Avatar OW was around 100M 

 

While it's evident this can't be compared with a typical huge franchises movie, the sequel should get some bump because it's a sequel and i'm sure marketing will be huge 

 

I think 150M OW is happening. Legs will be smaller tho, but i think it still can try 5-6x multiplier if it's a crowdpleaser like the last one, there's no reason to expect this to be frontloaded.

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, Joel M said:

For Titanic the doom and gloom I think went all the way up to the weekend of the release. I was too young to know this from memory but the articles from the time give a general sigh of relief "Not a flop" feeling. It probably won't be a bust, it has good wom so it'll recoup it's budget over the holidays etc.

 

With Avatar and because it was more modern times where online hype was something more quantifiable I think the negative buzz flipped a bit sooner than that but I don't remember exactly when. August 2009 the consensus was "lol what are these smurfs? is Cameron crazy?" and by mid December no one really was holding their breath that this might flop. But I'm drawing a blank on when exactly the switch happened. Was it the full 3min trailer? the early reviews? somewhere in between? 

The Avatar Day when they let anyone who wants watch 15-20 minutes of the movie in 3D for free, from there all the buzz was about "this is a movie to be seeing in theaters and the experience is nothing like you ever saw". 

 

There was doubts etc but it starts the wom that it's actually something special. 

 

I really hope they repeat the strategy with this movie, people really like what they saw on social media so far but i think another 15-20 minutes free previews close to release will lock the success for this too.

[Deep Wang]

10 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Thanks for the numbers! 

 

I'm not saying that sequel will perform in the same way cause sequels behave differently from originals (sequelitis) but if a sequel really clicks than it can have formidable legs in its own right. I'm just saying that we shouldn't expect MCU pattern of gigantic OWs.

 

Why shouldn't we expect an MCU pattern of opening weekends?  This is the sequel to the highest grossing movie OF ALL TIME!

 

Before I see the trailer and all the online reactions to go with it, I'm still thinking something like Rogue One domestically - 150/530-550m or so.  

 

That's completely in the MCU upper tier of opening weekends and domestic totals.

[AniNate]

Nah, the negative Avatar buzz went up to the release too

https://slate.com/culture/2009/12/is-avatar-destined-to-flop.html

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/national-international/avatar-might-be-the-longest-biggest-flop-ever/1863772/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1235154/Has-James-Cameron-Hollywoods-scariest-man-blown-200-million-biggest-movie-flop-ever.html

Edited May 2, 2022 by AniNate