Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Deep Wang]

57 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Funny thought.

Avatar fandom on this site will be like how Star Wars was, theres going to be 100-500+ new accounts over 2023 who got interested in seeing how much money it made and following its box office run.

 

It will be so nice to not be the outcast for a change because I'm not following the current online nerd meta (even tho i am one).

This isn't fandom wars by the way, I'm not saying anything bad of star wars, just pointing out how popular it was on here.

 

22 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I can't see it out opening the $180m that Incredibles 2 managed

 

Sounds like a good idea for a club when the time comes?

[YM!]

I think $140m opening is a good low end benchmark for Avatar 2 opening weekend. Thinking around 150m-165m for the OW with a very strong multiple to get it to say 600m-750mish. Depends on marketing if 200m+ opening and more is attainable.

[marveldcfox]

10 hours ago, Joel M said:

For Titanic the doom and gloom I think went all the way up to the weekend of the release. I was too young to know this from memory but the articles from the time give a general sigh of relief "Not a flop" feeling. It probably won't be a bust, it has good wom so it'll recoup it's budget over the holidays etc.

 

With Avatar and because it was more modern times where online hype was something more quantifiable I think the negative buzz flipped a bit sooner than that but I don't remember exactly when. August 2009 the consensus was "lol what are these smurfs? is Cameron crazy?" and by mid December no one really was holding their breath that this might flop. But I'm drawing a blank on when exactly the switch happened. Was it the full 3min trailer? the early reviews? somewhere in between? 

IMAX previews held worldwide in August changed the perception to some degree. Then some amazing pics were released in September/October. 3 minute trailer with finished effects and the excellent TV spots on major sports channels/networks changed the tide. The cast and JC promoted the movie heavily on talk shows and attended premieres. Finally, the reviews came.  Boom. 75+ OW and Christmas legs.

[eddyxx]

150/600 before seeing the trailer

[Porthos]

Is this where I point out that, at the time, Avatar's OW was the second largest OW of all time for a December release domestically?  Or third or fourth if you want to count/adjust TTT's and RotK's five day into a hypothetical three day?

 

This is where it stood when it debuted in 2009:

 

Quote

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Opening*	% of Total	Theaters	Average	Total Gross^	Date**
1	I Am Legend	WB	$77,211,321	30.1%	3,606	$21,411	$256,393,010	12/14/07
2	Avatar	Fox	$77,025,481	27.1%	3,452	$22,313	$283,811,000	12/18/09
3	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	NL	$72,629,713	19.3%	3,703	$19,613	$377,027,325	12/17/03
4	The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe	BV	$65,556,312	22.5%	3,616	$18,129	$291,710,957	12/9/05
5	Sherlock Holmes	WB	$62,390,000	61.0%	3,626	$17,206	$102,290,000	12/25/09
6	The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers	NL	$62,007,528	18.2%	3,622	$17,119	$339,789,881	12/18/02
7	King Kong	Uni.	$50,130,145	23.0%	3,568	$14,049	$218,080,025	12/14/05
8	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel	Fox	$48,875,415	40.5%	3,700	$13,210	$120,745,000	12/23/09
9	The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring	NL	$47,211,490	15.1%	3,359	$14,055	$313,364,114	12/19/01
10	Meet the Fockers	Uni.	$46,120,980	16.5%	3,518	$13,110	$279,261,160	12/22/04
11	National Treasure: Book of Secrets	BV	$44,783,772	20.4%	3,832	$11,686	$219,964,115	12/21/07
12	Alvin and the Chipmunks	Fox	$44,307,417	20.4%	3,475	$12,750	$217,326,974	12/14/07
13	Ocean's Twelve	WB	$39,153,380	31.2%	3,290	$11,900	$125,544,280	12/10/04
14	Ocean's Eleven	WB	$38,107,822	20.8%	3,075	$12,392	$183,417,150	12/7/01
15	Marley and Me	Fox	$36,357,586	25.4%	3,480	$10,448	$143,153,751	12/25/08
16	What Women Want	Par.	$33,614,543	18.4%	3,012	$11,160	$182,811,707	12/15/00
17	Scream 2	Dim.	$32,926,342	32.5%	2,663	$12,364	$101,363,301	12/12/97
18	The Day the Earth Stood Still (2008)	Fox	$30,480,153	38.4%	3,560	$8,562	$79,366,978	12/12/08
19	Night at the Museum	Fox	$30,433,781	12.1%	3,685	$8,258	$250,863,268	12/22/06
20	Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events	Par.	$30,061,756	25.3%	3,620	$8,304	$118,634,549	12/17/04
21	Catch Me If You Can	DW	$30,053,627	18.3%	3,156	$9,522	$164,615,351	12/25/02
22	Cast Away	Fox	$28,883,406	12.4%	2,774	$10,412	$233,632,142	12/22/00
23	Titanic	Par.	$28,638,131	4.8%	2,674	$10,710	$600,788,188	12/19/97
24	Cheaper by the Dozen	Fox	$27,557,647	19.9%	3,298	$8,355	$138,614,544	12/25/03
25	Bedtime Stories	BV	$27,450,296	24.9%	3,681	$7,457	$110,101,975	12/25/08
26	The Curious Case of Benjamin Button	Par.	$26,853,816	21.1%	2,988	$8,987	$127,509,326	12/25/08
27	The Pursuit of Happyness	Sony	$26,541,709	16.2%	2,852	$9,306	$163,566,459	12/15/06
28	The Golden Compass	NL	$25,783,232	36.8%	3,528	$7,308	$70,107,728	12/7/07
29	Patch Adams	Uni.	$25,262,280	18.7%	2,712	$9,315	$135,026,902	12/25/98
30	Tomorrow Never Dies	MGM	$25,143,007	20.1%	2,807	$8,957	$125,304,276	12/19/9

 

Look at those numbers and then look at Avatar's near-miss of I am Legend (just 200k short).  Avatar was already massively successful from the get-go.  That it got super legs is the real story.

 

(once again, the idea of uber-blockbusters at Xmas time having massive OWs was unheard of until TFA hit the stage, though as always RotK was just sitting there as an example of "What If" if people just bothered to look at the five day instead of the three)

 

I know now, here in 2022 post-SW and post-Marvel, 77m OW looks downright pedestrian in December.  But at the time, it was anything but.  Not a sign of the behemoth it would become, no.  But already a massive success?  Oh yes.

 

Context matters.  And looking at Avatar's run in the context of being before TFA upended the apple cart really shouldn't be forgotten.

 

===

 

Now this doesn't mean A2 is destined to be 200m OW come this Dec (my personal over/under line is somewhere in the 160s IIRC).  But looking at A1's OW back in 2009 and trying to extrapolate from that has... "issues" is the word I think I would use.  And ones that shouldn't be set aside.

Edited May 3, 2022 by Porthos
Finally tracked down the 2009 chart

[interiorgatordecorator]

Hope 2 doesn't have a ridiculously big opening

Avatar 2 is a 3d movie, everyone who sees it in 2d will have an inferior experience, and im convinced that you can't go much higher than the mid 100's without forcing some people who were interested in watching it in 3d to watch it in 2d

Sure there might theoretically be enough 3d screens for a 200+ ow, but some theaters will sell out and some silly people (my term for people who care about spoilers) will feel pressured into watching it in 2d just to not be spoiled

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[marveldcfox]

12 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

Hope 2 doesn't have a ridiculously big opening

Avatar 2 is a 3d movie, everyone who sees it in 2d will have an inferior experience, and im convinced that you can't go much higher than the mid 100's without forcing some people who were interested in watching it in 3d to watch it in 2d

Sure there might theoretically be enough 3d screens for a 200+ ow, but some theaters will sell out and some silly people (my term for people who care about spoilers) will feel pressured into watching it in 2d just to not be spoiled

 

It will look just fine in a 2D IMAX 4k showing..

[SchumacherFTW]

1 hour ago, marveldcfox said:

It will look just fine in a 2D IMAX 4k showing..

I'd be pretty surprised if IMAX have any 2D showings in the opening weeks

[TomCruiseTop]

 

I am blinded by its majesty.

[IronJimbo]

9 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

Sounds like a good idea for a club when the time comes?

 

Just seen Spider-Man: No Way Home made $260m on it's opening weekend in Dec 17 2021. It made $800m total? That movie was a small-scale spiderflick, there's zero way I can envision where Avarar doesn't make more cash.

Avatar: The Way of Water is going to be the first 1 billion dollar domestic movie, and the first 4 billion dollar worldwide movie.

 

 

 

 

[SchumacherFTW]

12 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Just seen Spider-Man: No Way Home made $260m on it's opening weekend in Dec 17 2021. It made $800m total? That movie was a small-scale spiderflick, there's zero way I can envision where Avarar doesn't make more cash.

Avatar: The Way of Water is going to be the first 1 billion dollar domestic movie, and the first 4 billion dollar worldwide movie.

 

 

 

 

Underestimate Marvel fans at your peril 

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Underestimate Marvel fans at your peril 

Underestimate the general audience at yours.

[SchumacherFTW]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

Underestimate the general audience at yours.

Pretty sure the general audience is the marvel audience these days. How disappointing of them 😅

[JustLurking]

Think Avatar 2 will shine more OS than domestically (though this is pretty much trivial if China releases it...). DOM will probably be still be strong but I don't think it's beating spidey much less TFA if I had to guess right now. We'll see though.

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Pretty sure the general audience is the marvel audience these days. How disappointing of them 😅

That's simply not true and you know it. Marvel fandom is male dominated and younger person dominated.

[SchumacherFTW]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

That's simply not true and you know it. Marvel fandom is male dominated and younger person dominated.

Movies don't make the numbers no way home did unless the general audience is invested and you know it 😂 imma bounce now before this goes any further

[TomCruiseTop]

36 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

That's simply not true and you know it. Marvel fandom is male dominated and younger person dominated.

Hypergonadal male fantasies appeal to males. It's not rocket science. Jim is all about true four quadrant making and I think you're right to think it's gonna make big money by hitting families and females too.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Hypergonadal male fantasies appeal to males. It's not rocket science. Jim is all about true four quadrant making and I think you're right to think it's gonna make big money by hitting families and females too.

I didn't say it was, it's very obvious to me!

Both my parents are saw the first and will be watching the second. My siblings too, I asked them. I don't ifluence them by the way. It just feels like a movie everyone can see.

 

Avatar was so much more than a regular movie, it truly was an experience that I fully believe will be made again in A:TWOW.

 

[TomCruiseTop]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

I didn't say it was, it's very obvious to me!

Both my parents are saw the first and will be watching the second. My siblings too, I asked them. I don't ifluence them by the way. It just feels like a movie everyone can see.

 

Avatar was so much more than a regular movie, it truly was an experience that I fully believe will be made again in A:TWOW.

 

The truest billie makers are those that TRULY hit those quadrants hard. Females and families came out in droves for Titanic and Avatar multiple times. That's how you make billies. A lot of the success of NWH was also the ridiculous levels of inflation we are seeing.

 

TWOW can do 6 billion.

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

The truest billie makers are those that TRULY hit those quadrants hard. Females and families came out in droves for Titanic and Avatar multiple times. That's how you make billies. A lot of the success of NWH was also the ridiculous levels of inflation we are seeing.

 

TWOW can do 6 billion.

 

Yeah, I'm actually really damn suprised at how much Spiderman made. I thought Cinema was kinda doomed after Covid so it's good to see a non Epic blockbuster can do so well.

 

I'm actually feeling 1 billie dom more than ever