Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[ZeeSoh]

15 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Even Maoyan had it as such (or relatively close) I believe. I want to say the initial projection was about 125/360?

Btw in mentioning those posts, I was referring to the predictions of 150-200m OW in China when Dom predictions were in the 150-175 range. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, ZeeSoh said:

Btw in mentioning those posts, I was referring to the predictions of 150-200m OW in China when Dom predictions were in the 150-175 range. 

 

Ahh yea I mean when PS started and was double F9 at the same time after a few days (F9 opened to $136M) then there was a lot of hype and calls for upwards of $220M 5-day even from non-fanboy prognosticators. 

 

[TheDude391]

Saw this last night and WOW. I like the original a lot but I think was much stronger. The final battle was significantly smaller in scale compared to 1 BUT it was so much more intense and the stakes felt much higher since I was so emotionally invested this time around. God Cameron, flexing on all of his contemporaries to a baffling degree. Oppenheimer and MI7 aside, if I was a director id feel embarrassed having my CGI laden blockbusters play trailers beforehand ha.

 

My only complaints were the runtime and Variable Frame Rate. 

Runtime: too short, movie felt a bit rushed at the beginning and I could've watched an extended cut, those 3 hours flew by.

VFR: while alternating seemed like the perfect ideal...I wish the whole thing was 48fps, when it switched to 24 it looked like slowdown. I dont know how Cameron did it but the 48fps sequences were insane, looked amazing. 

Edited December 18, 2022 by TheDude391

[Deep Wang]

21 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

Rogue One had $29M thursday and also it’s a star wars movie, eg more frontloaded by devoted fans.

Avatar fans can wait for better seat (or yet better format)

 

Let's do some math, shall we?

 

If it manages the same drop that TGM had from Fri-Fri, then it's going to gross about $25m. 

 

Now let's give it Rogue One's drops over the weekend and here's what you get. 

 

Fri - 25m

Sat(-33%) - 17m

Sun(+69%) - 29m

Weekend - $71m 

 

We don't know this weekend yet, but if it comes in low and makes $130-135m that is a 45-47% drop.  Which would be a fantastic number, lol. 

 

However, the problem I am having now, is that how does it get to $25m on Friday??  Rogue One increased 36% from Thurs>Fri.   

 

For Avatar to get to a 25m Friday with a 36% increase it needs to be at about 18.4 on Thursday, right?

 

Now that's just for a 45% drop.  Anything better and it has to have a better Friday number.  A better Friday number means we gotta have better weekday numbers.  

 

[stuart360]

I'm calling a 40% or under drop on Christmas weekend.

I just have that feeling that people are willing to wait for the best seats and screens, and 2nd weekend will show that imo.

Also 10% tops drop on New Years weekend.

Now bring on the smilies!.😆

Edited December 18, 2022 by stuart360

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Another thing that's going to hurt A2 about CE falling on Saturday more than it hurts a typical film is that due to the length of the movie, Saturday will have over-indexing strength in the comparison to the Friday/Sunday. Rogue One dropped 33% on CE. I think A2 could be closer to 40%. 

[Sophia Jane]

PostTrak score 5/5

[Sheldon Cr]

1 hour ago, Nikostar said:

Good luck with those numbers 

I'm always lucky with Cameron. This is Kal-El of Bom. Didn't you get the memo brother .

 

You'll need all the luck imaginable hoping for your flop wishes to happen to this movie.

My 140-150+ m OW can definitely  happen. As will most predicts of 5.8-7x multiplier off this massive OW

 

" Let's Get it.Done!

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, Sheldon Cr said:

My 140-150+ m OW can definitely  happen

 

Your numbers keep going down lol

 

 

[Sheldon Cr]

51 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I'm calling a 40% or under drop on Christmas weekend.

I just have that feeling that people are willing to wait for the best seats and screens, and 2nd weekend will show that imo.

Also 10% tops drop on New Years weekend.

Now bring on the smilies!.😆

Yep my brother and family were the part of the wait for Imax Pandorians.

 

 

And the son of gun got.lucky 😄😄

Got in with his kids to Laser Imax on Wed or Thurs. Dang.

.

Shoot we wound up with a still awesome 2d showing. I'm heading back for my full experience 4dx Avatar 2 visit to Pandora soon though. 

Edited December 18, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Update

[Sheldon Cr]

2 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Your numbers keep going down lol

 

 

So have yours lol.

 

My end tally is still the same

 Highend 1.09b, low end

 

850m domestic

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

So have yours lol.

 

My end tally is still the same

 Highend 1.09b, low end

 

850m domestic

It's not making a billion domestic lol

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, Sheldon Cr said:

So have yours lol.

 

My end tally is still the same

 Highend 1.09b, low end

 

850m domestic

 

Yep, mine have because the film doesn't have the interest I thought it would.

128-135M OW

550-600M DOM 

 

[Sheldon Cr]

5 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Your numbers keep going down lol

 

 

You went from 160 to 130m OW.

 

Heh

[Sheldon Cr]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

It's not making a billion domestic lol

I rem folks said avatar isn't going to do 500- 600m domestic. And that Titanic would flop after a 28m ow. That didn't work out for the haters then either.

 

😄

[Sheldon Cr]

2 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Yep, mine have because the film doesn't have the interest I thought it would.

128-135M OW

550-600M DOM 

 

That's still good , but

I feel at least 750-800.

 

900--1.09 B on the highend

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Sheldon Cr said:

I rem folks said avatar isn't going to do 500- 600m domestic. And that Titanic would flop after a 28m ow. That didn't work out for the haters then either.

 

😄

I thought Avatar 2 was good, there is no way in this current climate in the US box office wise that Avatar 2 could get above a 5x multiplier.

[Sophia Jane]

This time the history of Titanic and Avatar doesn’t work

The movie is not that good as those too,although is good

Anyway we need to wait the third weekend end,after that everything will be clear

Edited December 18, 2022 by Bruce

[Shanks]

Saw the Movie last night. And, I agree with What most other Reviews are saying - A:WoW is a spectacularly beautiful, but that's it.

 

The Problem is - I had watched Original Movie - 5 times over period of 2 months.  The 1st Movie had felt so incredible at that time with 3D, that We had watched it twice just within two days. 

 

And, I can't say  -  I will be watching AWoW 2nd time any time soon... and that maybe the difference we will see down the road between this and last one.

 

 

Edited December 18, 2022 by Shanks

[Verrows]

1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Let's do some math, shall we?

 

If it manages the same drop that TGM had from Fri-Fri, then it's going to gross about $25m. 

 

Now let's give it Rogue One's drops over the weekend and here's what you get. 

 

Fri - 25m

Sat(-33%) - 17m

Sun(+69%) - 29m

Weekend - $71m 

 

We don't know this weekend yet, but if it comes in low and makes $130-135m that is a 45-47% drop.  Which would be a fantastic number, lol. 

 

However, the problem I am having now, is that how does it get to $25m on Friday??  Rogue One increased 36% from Thurs>Fri.   

 

For Avatar to get to a 25m Friday with a 36% increase it needs to be at about 18.4 on Thursday, right?

 

Now that's just for a 45% drop.  Anything better and it has to have a better Friday number.  A better Friday number means we gotta have better weekday numbers.  

 

Good post. People are throwing around numbers but you have to consider how it gets to those numbers. A huge 2nd weekend doesn't just happen out of thin air.