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2015: Top 10 Opening Weekend Predicitons

By Neo, in Box Office Discussion

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

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the Avengers:AOU would be lucky if it made 20 million OW/total:45mil at mostand overseas it might crack 70-80milthe first one was horribly received..remember the D- cinemascore?

I even remember people booing during that godawful "puny god" scene...
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mahnamahna Box Office Gold

mahnamahna

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No MI has risen for the past 3 installments need to look again. but M:I 5 isn't like Fast and Furious... it's risen for three consecutive installments. M: I 4 is the only one that's risen This is contradictory. Yes 230M is in play why wouldn't it be.

 

    [*]50 Shades of Grey - NO

    [*]Cinderella - NO

    [*]Insurgent - Maybe

    [*]Fast and Furious 7 - Yes

    [*]Avengers 2 - Yes

    [*]Tomorrowland - Yes

    [*]Jurassic World - Yes

    [*]Inside Out - Yes

    [*]Ted 2 - Maybe

    [*]Minions - Yes

    [*]Ant-Man - Yes

    [*]The Jungle Book - No

    [*]The Conjuring 2 - No

    [*]Bond 24 - Yes

    [*]Mockingjay Part 2 - Yes

    [*]The Good Dinosaur - Iffy

    [*]Star Wars Episode VII - Yes

I will make a bet that MI5 will have a bigger OW/DOM than the Conjuring 2. Also Over 60M I win and Under 40M OW you win for OW. You really think that with 8-10 previous 60M+ OW will hinder MI5 chances of making 60M+ OW, no way, no way.

    [*]50 Shades of Grey sold 60 million copies. It's a romance movie being released Valentine's Day weekend. It's not Fault in Our Stars. This thing is opening to $60 million 3 day minimum. Considering how frontloaded it should be, not difficult at all

    [*]Cinderella has Maleficent, Oz and AiW all opening above $70 million in its favor. SpongeBob 2 shouldn't be that huge at the BO. $60-65 million OW isn't that hard looking at March 2015's lineup. 

    [*]Ted 2 is opening in the heart of summer. The first had a 4x multi from a $54 million OW. After May 22nd, the comedy lineup looks meh. $65-75 million OW shouldn't be that hard to get (Million Ways had ridiculous amounts of competition - Neighbors and Blended the weeks before, 22JS, Think Like a Man Too and Tammy within a month of its release) 

    [*]The Jungle Book has Oz, Maleficent and AiW's OWs (plus Cinderella) in its favor, plus Gravity proved an event film can open big in that month. Plus one of the best casts yet for a live action fairy tale adaption. 

    [*]The Conjuring 2 is one where I agree with you. Crimson Peak the week before and PA3 being the biggest horror opening in October ($52 million). I just said it had a chance at $60 million+ OW. 

    [*]The Good Dinosaur is Pixar and a Thanksgiving release. Something close to Frozen's 3 day ($60-65 million. $85-95 million 5 day) is pretty feasible if Peanuts isn't too huge. 

M: I didn't increase 3 times. I'm going by domestic numbers.

 

The streak ended with M: I 3. So it's increased on a past installment once (M: I to M: I 2) 

 

Fast and Furious

Fast Five

Fast and Furious 6

Fast and Furious 7 (almost a lock if it's remotely good - franchise peak, though) 

 

Fast will have increased with four consecutive installments domestically by December 2015. M: I will have done 1 by M: I 5. 

 

There's going to be more than 10 films above $60 million OW. And right now, $45-50 million is reasonable for M: I 5 considering how there's no Brad Bird, no guarentee the film will be good, no trailer, last one didn't have a Star Wars sized tentpole to deal with, it's a fifth installment of a mid-level franchise, etc. $60 million+ OW is possible, but I'd need more to go off of than "M: I 4 was great. And Sherlock Holmes 1 broke out despite Avatar". 

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Neo Global Phenomenon

Neo

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    [*]50 Shades of Grey sold 60 million copies. It's a romance movie being released Valentine's Day weekend. It's not Fault in Our Stars. This thing is opening to $60 million 3 day minimum. Considering how frontloaded it should be, not difficult at all So every copy sold = $1 at the box office? I don't think so.

    [*]Cinderella has Maleficent, Oz and AiW all opening above $70 million in its favor. SpongeBob 2 shouldn't be that huge at the BO. $60-65 million OW isn't that hard looking at March 2015's lineup. LOL at SB predict. SB open to 32M 10 years ago.

    [*]Ted 2 is opening in the heart of summer. Heart I guess we should pencil in 300M OW and 1B DOM right? Ted made 54M and unlike the Hangover 2 that switched dates its staying the same. The first had a 4x multi from a $54 million OW. After May 22nd, the comedy lineup looks meh. $65-75 million OW shouldn't be that hard to get (Million Ways had ridiculous amounts of competition - Neighbors and Blended the weeks before, 22JS, Think Like a Man Too and Tammy within a month of its release) 

    [*]The Jungle Book has Oz, Maleficent and AiW's OWs (plus Cinderella) in its favor, plus Gravity proved an event film can open big in that month. Plus one of the best casts yet for a live action fairy tale adaption. Bet on its OW? So you are thinking 114M+?  Difference those are fairy tales and have had epic runs in previous installments.

    [*]The Conjuring 2 is one where I agree with you. Crimson Peak the week before and PA3 being the biggest horror opening in October ($52 million). I just said it had a chance at $60 million+ OW. 

    [*]The Good Dinosaur is Pixar and a Thanksgiving release. Something close to Frozen's 3 day ($60-65 million. $85-95 million 5 day) is pretty feasible if Peanuts isn't too huge. 

M: I didn't increase 3 times. I'm going by domestic numbers.

 

The streak ended with M: I 3. So it's increased on a past installment once (M: I to M: I 2) and from MI3 to MI4.

 

Fast and Furious

Fast Five

Fast and Furious 6

Fast and Furious 7 (almost a lock if it's remotely good - franchise peak, though) 

 

Fast will have increased with four consecutive installments domestically by December 2015. M: I will have done 1 by M: I 5. 

 

There's going to be more than 10 films above $60 million OW. And right now, $45-50 million is reasonable for M: I 5 considering how there's no Brad Bird, no guarentee the film will be good, no trailer, Really if this is a reason for not hitting 60M its the worst reason ever, I mean ever.  last one didn't have a Star Wars sized tentpole to deal with, Must have missed SH in 2009. it's a fifth installment of a mid-level franchise, Say that to the Fast franchise at the time after Fast 3's release etc. $60 million+ OW is possible, but I'd need more to go off of than "M: I 4 was great. And Sherlock Holmes 1 broke out despite Avatar". What? You use things only to your advantage for one-minded.

 

Answer me this which you failed to answer do you think previous 60M movies will hinder Mi5 from making 60M+ Do you take my bet?

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Kvikk Lunsj Global Phenomenon

Kvikk Lunsj

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And? Doesn't mean anything.

That it has a big fan base and it be a big date movie. If only 5m people who read the book go and see a movie. If half those bring a date with 8.25 being the average ticket price it would make 61m.  Plus there be people who did not read the book that will want to see what all the fuss is about. Plus it was first female target demo film in months.  I have not read the book but I want to see the movie. 

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James Summer Tentpole

James

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LOL Neo, be serious. The 60M copies sold update for the book is over two years old (the update was made in august 2012). It is still in the top 10 best selling books in the US even now (take a look at the New York Times Best Seller list). It most likely surpassed 70M copies. And the trailer is one of the most watched ever. The reactions to it seem to be very positive and the buzz for this is sky high. It won't miss 60M. Period.

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Neo Global Phenomenon

Neo

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That it has a big fan base and it be a big date movie. If only 5m people who read the book go and see a movie. If half those bring a date with 8.25 being the average ticket price it would make 61m.  Plus there be people who did not read the book that will want to see what all the fuss is about. Plus it was first female target demo film in months.  I have not read the book but I want to see the movie. 

Where were Twilght's, TLTWW, DaVinici Codes all of the Bond 100M+ OW's? Also had a lot of date movies that weekend in the past where were the monstrous OW's.

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Neo Global Phenomenon

Neo

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LOL Neo, be serious. The 60M copies sold update for the book is over two years old (the update was made in august 2012). It is still in the top 10 best selling books in the US even now (take a look at the New York Times Best Seller list). It most likely surpassed 70M copies. And the trailer is one of the most watched ever. The reactions to it seem to be very positive and the buzz for this is sky high. It won't miss 60M. Period.

18 http://www.usatoday.com/life/books/best-selling/week/2014/33/page/2/?ajax=true

 

2 http://www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books/2014-08-24/trade-fiction-paperback/list.html So with your theory Gone Girl should open to 200M, right? Miss or not

 

65 http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-books-Amazon/zgbs/books#4

 

Reacher?

Cross?

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James Summer Tentpole

James

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1. Avengers 2 - 222m

2. Mockingjay 2 - 185m

3. SW7 - 115m

4. Fast 7 - 107m

5. Bond - 98m

6. Minions - 85m

7. Fifty Shades - 77m

8. Jurassic World - 75m

9. Ted 2 - 72m

10.Insurgent - 68m

This is one of the most resonable lists I've seen this far.

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James Summer Tentpole

James

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What are you talking about? Look at the list: Gone Girl was in that top for 16 weeks and it's higher because the film is a few weeks away. 50 Shades was in the top for 119 weeks. Also, Gone Girl sold around 5M copies, compared to 70M for Shades. And why are you giving me links to Amazon and USA Today? NYT Best Seller List is easily the most recognizable authority when talking book sales. It compiles most US book sellers and it is quoted absolutely everywhere. And I said nothing about an 100M OW. I was talking over 60.  

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Neo Global Phenomenon

Neo

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What are you talking about? Look at the list: Gone Girl was in that top for 16 weeks and it's higher because the film is a few weeks away. 50 Shades was in the top for 119 weeks. Also, Gone Girl sold around 5M copies, compared to 70M for Shades. And why are you giving me links to Amazon and USA Today. NYT Best Seller List is easily the most recognizable authority when talking book sales. It compiles most US book sellers and it is quoted absolutely everywhere. And I said nothing about an 100M OW. I was talking over 60.  

Don't know when to give up. A lot of members like you here. Not in the only one you know. USA Today and Amazon are pretty big. Everywhere. LOL. Where did I say anything to you about 100M OW.

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Neo Global Phenomenon

Neo

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I don't know why people still bother with Neo. Anything that's nerdy and male-oriented he overpredicts like crazy. Anything that appeals to females at all, he basically denies that it has any appeal to anyone.

And that is why you fail. Thats why I had the 2nd highest Gravity predict and over predicted Tammy. Good Divergent predict and a great BDII (probably best on board), so before you make claims know all the facts.

Edited by Neo
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