2015: Top 10 Opening Weekend Predicitons

[Noctis]

$190m is not happening for MJ2. $180m is the absolute best it can hope for.

[DAJK]

$190m is not happening for MJ2. $180m is the absolute best it can hope for.

Maybe you're right, but I'm going to keep my hopes up

[Juby]

$180 mln is not happening for MJ2 also.

 

 

Terminator: Genishit - $32,5 mln OW ($54 mln 5-day).

[Lordmandeep]

It also decimated all the other openers OS.I can play this game, too.

 

That time shall come when DH2 will be beaten Overseas, very very soon. 

[Ethan Hunt]

Top 5 December:

 

1. Star Wars VII - 128.6 million (this IS very high for December, but the hype will be through the roof, and the legs will also be great, making this one of the top earning films of the year)

2. Kung Fu Panda 3 - 48.4 million (opening against Star Wars will be tough, but Po and friends will manage)

3. Mission Impossible 5 - 43.9 million (it will be difficult for this to be huge on OW, but the film will have typical December legs, if not better) 

4. Untitled Seth Rogen Comedy - 31.2 million (Seth Rogen is popular right now, that's all there is to it  )

5. Joy (David O Russel film) - 21.7 million (David O Russel is on a roll right now box office wise, and critically)

 I like that number for KFP3 but I need M:I 5 to open to at least 60M

[James]

That time shall come when DH2 will be beaten Overseas, very very soon. 

Yes, and unfortunately it will be beaten by a Marvel movie.  I mean, come on!

[Noctis]

That time shall come when DH2 will be beaten Overseas, very very soon.

Sure. But it took 4 years for a film to do it despite expanding markets.

[Ethan Hunt]

That time shall come when DH2 will be beaten Overseas, very very soon. 

OK, the question is when will something touch Avatar overseas. Avatar 2 looking like the only real possiblity in the near future

Edited August 15, 2014 by Ethan Hunt

[James]

OK, the question is when will something touch Avatar overseas. Avatar 2 looking like the only real possiblity in the near futere 

No movie will touch Avatar OS in the next 20 years. And please correct that word. It made me laugh automatically. You can google translate it but it won't tell you exactly what it means... But just write it correctly  

[The Panda]

I like that number for KFP3 but I need M:I 5 to open to at least 60M

Mission Impossible V will be lucky and extremely successful to have 35-40m opening. It won't get much over that given the franchise, the spot, and being in Star Wars' second weekend.

[The Panda]

OK, the question is when will something touch Avatar overseas. Avatar 2 looking like the only real possiblity in the near future

Let's see how Avengers 2 does, but no Avatar 2 won't touch the first.

[mahnamahna]

 I like that number for KFP3 but I need M:I 5 to open to at least 60M

M:I 5 is going to be overshadowed by Star Wars Episode VII. $40-45 million is great considering that. I could see $50-55 million, but more than $60 million seems unlikely for the 5th installment of a generally meh series (aside from the last one). 

 

KFP3 seems a little high to me... $35-40 million is my guess since Star Wars is getting the family audience for December and KFP2 disappointed. Expecting $130-140 million DOM finish for it. 

[Neo]

Mission Impossible V will be lucky and extremely successful to have 35-40m opening. It won't get much over that given the franchise, the spot, and being in Star Wars' second weekend.

It won't be competition that prevents it from doing more on OW, must be people are tired of the franchise.

[mahnamahna]

It won't be competition that prevents it from doing more on OW, must be people are tired of the franchise.

Star Wars Episode VII is slightly bigger competition than Sherlock Holmes 2  so a $60 million+ OW right after a $150 million OW for Star Wars Episode VII would be nuts. Wouldn't be against it, but I can't see M:I 5 doing it. $45 million is great for it and the legs can be relatively strong. 

[Neo]

Star Wars Episode VII is slightly bigger competition than Sherlock Holmes 2  so a $60 million+ OW right after a $150 million OW for Star Wars Episode VII would be nuts. Wouldn't be against it, but I can't see M:I 5 doing it. $45 million is great for it and the legs can be relatively strong. 

Missed the analogy. Avatar's 2nd weekend vs SH1. SH1 OW would be a good fit for Mi5.

[mahnamahna]

Missed the analogy. Avatar's 2nd weekend vs SH1. SH1 OW would be a good fit for Mi5.

But Avatar only made $77 million the weekend before. Star Wars Episode VII should make $120-160 million over its OW - more than double what Avatar. The Christmas Day being on Friday effect basically locks a drop less than 40% for the weekend - say 30-35%

 

So $98-105 million for the 2nd weekend with a $150 million OW.

Considering KFP should get $35-40 million, Joy should get $15-20 million, Inferno and The Nest getting $10-15 million each, with Seth Rogen's Christmas movie getting $10-15 million as well (most of it on Christmas Day) - that's almost $200 million worth of box office without any other Oscar bait releases or Mockingjay 2 and Good Dinosaur (both should get $3-5 million each over the weekend).

 

So $215-220 million without taking M: I 5 into account.

 

Considering Christmas 2009 did $270 million overall for that weekend, and 6 years of inflation, a $60-70 million OW COULD happen... but M: I 5 has to overcome no Brad Bird and the fact that it is the fifth installment in an average spy series (Bond and pre-Renner Bourne have always been a lot more interesting). So $45 million is a reasonably conservative prediction right now considering there's nothing to go off of at the moment. 

[Neo]

But Avatar only made $77 million the weekend before. Star Wars Episode VII should make $120-160 million over its OW - more than double what Avatar. The Christmas Day being on Friday effect basically locks a drop less than 40% for the weekend - say 30-35%

 

So $98-105 million for the 2nd weekend with a $150 million OW.

Considering KFP should get $35-40 million, Joy should get $15-20 million, Inferno and The Nest getting $10-15 million each, with Seth Rogen's Christmas movie getting $10-15 million as well (most of it on Christmas Day) - that's almost $200 million worth of box office without any other Oscar bait releases or Mockingjay 2 and Good Dinosaur (both should get $3-5 million each over the weekend).

 

So $215-220 million without taking M: I 5 into account.

 

Considering Christmas 2009 did $270 million overall for that weekend, and 6 years of inflation, a $60-70 million OW COULD happen... but M: I 5 has to overcome no Brad Bird and the fact that it is the fifth installment in an average spy series (Bond and pre-Renner Bourne have always been a lot more interesting). So $45 million is a reasonably conservative prediction right now considering there's nothing to go off of at the moment. 

I don't think you get it. Doesn't matter what VII's OW is, with a 120M will it be better than Avatar's 2nd wknd? Thats do able but we have no real idea how a 150M opener in December 2nd wknd will play out. Might be -40% we just don't know. I see those numbers are there to prove your point I could do the same and lower them all by 10M and make Mi5 higher. Average? Last one made 209M and 640M WW (trying to remember), looks to be on the rise (ala Fast). In your view maybe. My prediction is just as reasonable as yours.

[mahnamahna]

I don't think you get it. Doesn't matter what VII's OW is, with a 120M will it be better than Avatar's 2nd wknd? Thats do able but we have no real idea how a 150M opener in December 2nd wknd will play out. Might be -40% we just don't know. I see those numbers are there to prove your point I could do the same and lower them all by 10M and make Mi5 higher. Average? Last one made 209M and 640M WW (trying to remember), looks to be on the rise (ala Fast). In your view maybe. My prediction is just as reasonable as yours.

Fair enough.. but M:I 5 isn't like Fast and Furious... it's risen for three consecutive installments. M: I 4 is the only one that's risen so far and that was IMAX, Brad Bird and the fact that it was a great tentpole for the most part. Unless M: I 5 gets to $220-230 million, I just don't see the Fast and Furious comparison holding any weight. 

 

All of the predictions I made for the other December are reasonable - no reason to lower them. They weren't that high to begin with. 

 

And Star Wars Episode VII is probably going to be closer to $150 million than $120 million over OW. ROTK adjusts to $167 million over its 5 day without 3D or IMAX. Something similar ($140-160 million) is feasible for Star Wars unless Disney gives it a Thursday release. Then $110-130 mililon OW would be reasonable. 

 

But M: I 5 isn't going to have a top 10 OW with $60 million. Way too many bigger films before it 

 

[*]50 Shades of Grey

[*]Cinderella 

[*]Insurgent 

[*]Fast and Furious 7 

[*]Avengers 2

[*]Tomorrowland 

[*]Jurassic World 

[*]Inside Out

[*]Ted 2

[*]Minions 

[*]Ant-Man 

[*]The Jungle Book 

[*]The Conjuring 2 

[*]Bond 24

[*]Mockingjay Part 2

[*]The Good Dinosaur 

[*]Star Wars Episode VII 

All of those have a shot at $60 million+ OW. M: I 5 would have to beat out 8 out of these in order to make the top 10 OW 

 

The easiest 8 to jump:

[*]The Conjuring 2 

[*]Insurgent 

[*]The Jungle Book 

[*]Tomorrowland

[*]Cinderella 

[*]Ted 2

[*]The Good Dinosaur 

[*]50 Shades of Grey 

None of those are locked for a $60 million+ OW so M: I 5 would have the best chance at topping these. Say 3-4 of them are topped. Still only 14th or 15th. 

 

12 films opened above $60 million in 2013, 2014 is on track for 13-15(Interstellar, Big Hero 6, Mockingjay 1, Exodus and Hobbit 3 being the likely candidates. Penguins of Madagscar is a dark horse candidate but the 5 day opening will hurt its chances) 

 

Just looking at the 17 candidates (and M: I 5), 13-14 seem likely for $60 million+. The rest will probably get $45-60 million OW - still solid but not enough for top 10 unless 2015 disappoints epically. 

 

I'd say M: I 5's chances at top 10 OW are 50/50... all depends on what the bottom 2 do (has to be less than $70 million) 

[Neo]

Fair enough.. but M:I 5 isn't like Fast and Furious... it's risen for three consecutive installments. M: I 4 is the only one that's risen so far and that was IMAX, Brad Bird and the fact that it was a great tentpole for the most part. Unless M: I 5 gets to $220-230 million, I just don't see the Fast and Furious comparison holding any weight. 

 

All of the predictions I made for the other December are reasonable - no reason to lower them. They weren't that high to begin with. 

 

And Star Wars Episode VII is probably going to be closer to $150 million than $120 million over OW. ROTK adjusts to $167 million over its 5 day without 3D or IMAX. Something similar ($140-160 million) is feasible for Star Wars unless Disney gives it a Thursday release. Then $110-130 mililon OW would be reasonable. 

 

But M: I 5 isn't going to have a top 10 OW with $60 million. Way too many bigger films before it 

 

[*]50 Shades of Grey

[*]Cinderella 

[*]Insurgent 

[*]Fast and Furious 7 

[*]Avengers 2

[*]Tomorrowland 

[*]Jurassic World 

[*]Inside Out

[*]Ted 2

[*]Minions 

[*]Ant-Man 

[*]The Jungle Book 

[*]The Conjuring 2 

[*]Bond 24

[*]Mockingjay Part 2

[*]The Good Dinosaur 

[*]Star Wars Episode VII 

All of those have a shot at $60 million+ OW. M: I 5 would have to beat out 8 out of these in order to make the top 10 OW 

 

The easiest 8 to jump:

[*]The Conjuring 2 

[*]Insurgent 

[*]The Jungle Book 

[*]Tomorrowland

[*]Cinderella 

[*]Ted 2

[*]The Good Dinosaur 

[*]50 Shades of Grey 

None of those are locked for a $60 million+ OW so M: I 5 would have the best chance at topping these. Say 3-4 of them are topped. Still only 14th or 15th. This reasoning of not making 60M+ OW is the worst reasoning I have ever seen. Doesn't make any sense.

 

12 films opened above $60 million in 2013, 2014 is on track for 13-15(Interstellar, Big Hero 6, Mockingjay 1, Exodus and Hobbit 3 being the likely candidates. Penguins of Madagscar is a dark horse candidate but the 5 day opening will hurt its chances) 

 

Just looking at the 17 candidates (and M: I 5), 13-14 seem likely for $60 million+. The rest will probably get $45-60 million OW - still solid but not enough for top 10 unless 2015 disappoints epically. 

 

I'd say M: I 5's chances at top 10 OW are 50/50... all depends on what the bottom 2 do (has to be less than $70 million)

No MI has risen for the past 3 installments need to look again. but M:I 5 isn't like Fast and Furious... it's risen for three consecutive installments. M: I 4 is the only one that's risen This is contradictory. Yes 230M is in play why wouldn't it be.

 

[*]50 Shades of Grey - NO

[*]Cinderella - NO

[*]Insurgent - Maybe

[*]Fast and Furious 7 - Yes

[*]Avengers 2 - Yes

[*]Tomorrowland - Yes

[*]Jurassic World - Yes

[*]Inside Out - Yes

[*]Ted 2 - Maybe

[*]Minions - Yes

[*]Ant-Man - Yes

[*]The Jungle Book - No

[*]The Conjuring 2 - No

[*]Bond 24 - Yes

[*]Mockingjay Part 2 - Yes

[*]The Good Dinosaur - Iffy

[*]Star Wars Episode VII - Yes

I will make a bet that MI5 will have a bigger OW/DOM than the Conjuring 2. Also Over 60M I win and Under 40M OW you win for OW. You really think that with 8-10 previous 60M+ OW will hinder MI5 chances of making 60M+ OW, no way, no way.

[Johnny Wiseau]

the Avengers:AOU would be lucky if it made 20 million OW/total:45mil at most

and overseas it might crack 70-80mil

 

the first one was horribly received..remember the D- cinemascore?