2015: Top 10 Opening Weekend Predicitons

[Jessie]

and the fact he died.

[Jessie]

Ledger's death affected the BO (how much we'll never know), but let's not forget that he was also playing the most popular comic book villain of all time.

 

Yeah but since when has popularity of characters effected a CBM's gross? Iron Man 3 was bigger than all Batman movies lol.

[peludo]

So, we should wait some unexpected and astronomical openings because of Robin Williams since he has left some movies to release? or a severe increase for Mockingjay because of Philip Seymour Hoffman? And let's remember these actors were quite more well known than Ledger when they died. And if the main reason to see TDK was Ledger's death, how do you explain TDKR opening since the increase in opening from BB to TDK is given mainly to Ledger's death? Even although the enormous quality of TDK and many people wanted more of Batman, many people should have not returned so massively to see TDKR. However they did.

 

IMHO, there is not a certain truth. We can speculate forever, but we will never know what would have happened if Ledger had not died or if Aurora shooting had not happened.

[Juby]

BKB predicted 600m. Again, IMDB results mean nothing, its Nolan after all, he's basically worshiped on that site. I also misread your multiplier, that's my bad. Still I find it very convenient that you pull numbers out of your ass just to prove to me that it would have crossed 400m. You wont find any 200m grossers that had a 100% increase with the sequel, so no, I (like most) don't think it would have hit 400m without the death of Ledger, and you're arguing it would make 404m lol, so not even you seem that confident about it.

 

BKB is a world-class Marvel Cinematic Universe fanboy, he doesn't count. Besides, TDK forecasts even after the Ledger's death weren't higher then $350 mln. Meny people underestimated this Batman vs Joker clash and focus on Indy 4 that year.

The point is - predictions do not mean anything. A lot of people here predicts over $300 mln for HTTYD2!

 

Nolan wasn't 'worshiped' on IMDb before 2008. And Ledger wasn't so famous actor to attract attention of millions of people. But he's Joker was.

 

There's is no other $200m grosser whose sequel earn over $400 mln, but also there's no any other first comicbookmovie in the franchise as good as Batman Begins which earned so little money! BB was a reboot (!) after horrible B&R, and it was realesed between Star Wars III (huge hit) and War of the Worlds (big hit) in 2005 - one of the worst box offce year ever! In other circumstances Begins could gross much more then $205 mln. And again - it had great legs. People love that movie and wanna see a sequel, especially after final scene with the Joker card. TDK had great (one of the best ever) promotional campaign and was highly anticipated for 3 years. If Terminator 2 could gross $204 mln after first Terminator's $38 mln i don't see why TDK couldn't gross over 100% more then it's predecessor.

 

Good example - Pirates of the Carribean OW was $46,6 mln ($70,6 mln five days). Dead Man's Chest OW was $135,6 mln (+92% more then five days opening of the first film). If Pirates could up 92% on opening weekend, why TDK couldn't? Begins OW was $48,7 ($72,9 mln in five days). That number +92% means that TDK even without Ledger's death could earn $140 mln on it's opening weekend! With it's actual x3,37 multiplayer TDK's final gross could be $470 mln! I believe this could happened.

 

We will never know how big effect Ledger's death was, but you can't say that TDK definitely wasn't able to cross $400 mln!

 

Iron Man 3 was bigger then any Batman movies because "Avengers effect" + 3D. Without shooting during TDKR midnight shows and if the movie was in 3D, then it could easly finished with over $500 mln DOM and $800 mln overseas (Europe and Asia love 3D).

[mahnamahna]

Yeah but since when has popularity of characters effected a CBM's gross? Iron Man 3 was bigger than all Batman movies lol.

None of the Batman films had 3D. And none of the Batman films came off of a crowd-pleasing team-up film. 

 

And domestically, the 1989 Batman, TDK and TDKR sold more tickets than Iron Man 3. 

 

Iron Man 3's gross is 3D + Avengers effect. Would have probably done $275-300 million if it came out before Avengers without 3D. 

[Jessie]

BKB is a world-class Marvel Cinematic Universe fanboy, he doesn't count. Besides, TDK forecasts even after the Ledger's death weren't higher then $350 mln. Meny people underestimated this Batman vs Joker clash and focus on Indy 4 that year.The point is - predictions do not mean anything. A lot of people here predicts over $300 mln for HTTYD2!Nolan wasn't 'worshiped' on IMDb before 2008. And Ledger wasn't so famous actor to attract attention of millions of people. But he's Joker was.There's is no other $200m grosser whose sequel earn over $400 mln, but also there's no any other first comicbookmovie in the franchise as good as Batman Begins which earned so little money! BB was a reboot (!) after horrible B&R, and it was realesed between Star Wars III (huge hit) and War of the Worlds (big hit) in 2005 - one of the worst box offce year ever! In other circumstances Begins could gross much more then $205 mln. And again - it had great legs. People love that movie and wanna see a sequel, especially after final scene with the Joker card. TDK had great (one of the best ever) promotional campaign and was highly anticipated for 3 years. If Terminator 2 could gross $204 mln after first Terminator's $38 mln i don't see why TDK couldn't gross over 100% more then it's predecessor.Good example - Pirates of the Carribean OW was $46,6 mln ($70,6 mln five days). Dead Man's Chest OW was $135,6 mln (+92% more then five days opening of the first film). If Pirates could up 92% on opening weekend, why TDK couldn't? Begins OW was $48,7 ($72,9 mln in five days). That number +92% means that TDK even without Ledger's death could earn $140 mln on it's opening weekend! With it's actual x3,37 multiplayer TDK's final gross could be $470 mln! I believe this could happened.We will never know how big effect Ledger's death was, but you can't say that TDK definitely wasn't able to cross $400 mln!Iron Man 3 was bigger then any Batman movies because "Avengers effect" + 3D. Without shooting during TDKR midnight shows and if the movie was in 3D, then it could easly finished with over $500 mln DOM and $800 mln overseas (Europe and Asia love 3D).

By comparing Pirates to BB you're assuming they had similar WOM, they did not. Pirates 1 was adored by the GA, hence it opened to roughly the same as BB yet ended with 100m more in the bank so that along kind of disqualifies that example (and this is coming from someone who loved BB). If anything, TDK out grossing DMC on OW just shows how large of an impact his death had.I remember working in a busy office before TDK come out, no - one would mention TDK without mentioning the death of Heath first. It had free advertising for half a year prior to the films released and when the release came nearer we all knew it was going to be the 'event' off the year fueled by the death of a young rising star in which his preparation and commitment to the role was known to be one of the reasons he died. He literally killed himself creating that awesome character and that alone was a big enough reason for non - batman fans to come check this out.We aren't going to agree on this, so how about we just call it a draw? Edited August 14, 2014 by jessie

[Juby]

We'll call a draw when you agree it was possible (not sure but possible) that TDK could cross $400 mln DOM without Ledger's death.

 

I'm not assuming that Pirates and Batman had similar WOM but Batman had very good WOM (with stronger competition I think). Begins also had much better reviews and scores on IMDb. And Batman (and Joker) are more iconic characters then Jack Sparrow ever be. Remember summer 2005 was weak compared with summer 2003.

[Lordmandeep]

I just find it amusing that the TA is an anomaly that cannot be compared to as its a "team up film" when many dismissed it as Iron man and Z list friends before it opened. 

[The Panda]

January

 

9th

Taken 3 - 34.7m

Selma - 17.6m

 

16th 

The Wedding Ringer - 42.3m

American Sniper - 24.5m

blackhat - 17.6m

 

23rd

The Boy Next Door - 15.4m

Black Sea - 12.1m

 

30th

Project Almanac - 14.2m

Lazarus - 8.4m

Max - 7.8m

 

6th

Jupiter Ascending - 31.4m

The Seventh Son - 17.8m

Mortdecai - 7.4m

 

13th

Fifty Shades of Grey - 115.4m

SpongeBob: Sponge Out of Water - 37.8m

Kingsman: The Secret Service - 15.2m

 

20th

Jane Got a Gun - 14.7m

The DUFF - 12.4m

The Gunman - 7.2m

 

27th

Focus - 25.4m

Hitman: Agent 47 - 18.7m

The Vatican Tapes - 15.2m

Little Boy - 12.4m

 

March

 

6th

Chappie - 28.4m

The Transporter Legacy - 24.7m

Business or Pleasure - 17.4m

 

13th

Cinderella - 65.7m

In the Heart of the Sea - 15.7m

Scouts vs Zombies - 12.8m

 

20th

The Divergent Series: Insurgent - 60.5m

Desert Dancer - 7.2m

 

27th

Get Hard - 43.2m

Home - 24.3m

 

April

 

3rd

Fast and Furious 7 - 125.7m

 

10th

The Longest Ride - 17.2m

 

17th

Paul Blart: Mall Cop - 24.2m

Child 44 - 17.8m

Monkey Kingdom - 5.4m

 

May

 

1st

The Avengers: Age of Ultron - 217.4m

 

8th

Don't Mess With Texas - 12.4m

 

15th

Pitch Perfect 2 - 54.3m

Mad Max: Fury Road - 23.4m

 

2nd

Tomorrowland - 72.5m

Spy - 35.4m

 

29th

Insidious Chapter 3 - 27.4m

Monster Trucks - 15.7m

 

June

 

5th

B.O.O; Bureau of Otherworld Operation - 32.5m

San Andreas 3D - 24.1m

 

12th

Jurassic World - 95.6m

Entourage - 5.7m

 

19th

Inside Out - 67.3m

The Fantastic Four - 50.4m

 

26th

Ted 2 - 69m

Ricky and the Flash - 13.2m

 

July

 

3rd

Magic Mike XXL - 46.3m

Terminator Genisys - 27.4m

 

10th

Minions - 112.4m

 

17th

Ant-Man - 87.4m

Pan - 14.2m

 

24th

Pixels - 32.1m

Trainwreck - 25.4m

Poltergeist - 18.7m

 

31st

Paper Towns - 40.8m

Point Break - 15.4m

Grimsby - 10.7m

 

7th

Goosebumps - 52.3m

 

14th

The Man From U.N.C.L.E - 25.4m

 

21st

Sinister 2 - 24.8m

Me Before You - 17.2m

 

28th

Regression - 7.4m

 

September

 

18th

Everest - 17.8m

Black Mass - 15.2m

 

25th

Hotel Transylvania 2 - 45.7m

The Intern - 15.2m

 

October

 

2nd

London Has Fallen - 30.2m

Frankenstein - 21.4m

 

9th

The Jungle Book - 53.8m

 

16th

Crimson Peak - 27.9m

 

23rd

The Conjuring 2 - 51.4m

 

November

 

6th

James Bond 28 - 105.4m

The Peanuts - 36.2m

 

13th

Friday the 13th - 31.9m

 

20th

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 - 172.4m

 

27th

The Good Dinosaur - 42.5m

The Martian - 21.6m

Midnight Special - 15.2m

 

December

 

18th

Star Wars: Episode VII - 152.7m

Inferno - 18.3m

 

25th

Mission Impossible V - 35.2m

Kung Fu Panda 3 - 27.8m

 

Weekend Rankings

1.The Avengers: Age of Ultron - 217.4m

2.The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 - 172.4m

3.Star Wars: Episode VII - 152.7m

4.Fast and Furious 7 - 125.7m

5.Fifty Shades of Grey - 115.4m

6.Minions - 112.4m

7.James Bond 28 - 105.4m

8.Jurassic World - 95.6m

9.Ant-Man - 87.4m

10.Tomorrowland - 72.5m

11.Ted 2 - 69m

12.Inside Out - 67.3m

13.Cinderella - 65.7m

14.The Divergent Series: Insurgent - 60.5m

15.Pitch Perfect 2 - 54.3m

16.The Jungle Book - 53.8m

17.Goosebumps - 52.3m

18.The Conjuring 2 - 51.4m

19.The Fantastic Four - 50.4m

20.Magic Mike XXL - 46.3m

21.Hotel Transylvania - 45.7m

22.Get Hard - 43.2m

23.The Good Dinosaur - 42.5m

24.The Wedding Ringer - 42.3m

25.Paper Towns - 40.8m

[DAJK]

I really like your list, I'm going to try something relatively similar...

 

lol another time I guess, I'm half done but I have to leave 

Edited August 15, 2014 by DAJK

[Neo]

 

Weekend Rankings

1.The Avengers: Age of Ultron - 217.4m

2.The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 - 172.4m

3.Star Wars: Episode VII - 152.7m

4.Fast and Furious 7 - 125.7m

5.Fifty Shades of Grey - 115.4m

6.Minions - 112.4m

7.James Bond 28 - 105.4m

8.Jurassic World - 95.6m

9.Ant-Man - 87.4m

10.Tomorrowland - 72.5m

11.Ted 2 - 69m

12.Inside Out - 67.3m

13.Cinderella - 65.7m

14.The Divergent Series: Insurgent - 60.5m

15.Pitch Perfect 2 - 54.3m

16.The Jungle Book - 53.8m

17.Goosebumps - 52.3m

18.The Conjuring 2 - 51.4m

19.The Fantastic Four - 50.4m

20.Magic Mike XXL - 46.3m

21.Hotel Transylvania - 45.7m

22.Get Hard - 43.2m

23.The Good Dinosaur - 42.5m

24.The Wedding Ringer - 42.3m

25.Paper Towns - 40.8m

What is the last Pixar movie to open in the 40s? C2 seems way high. 50 Shades in the 100s?

[The Panda]

What is the last Pixar movie to open in the 40s? C2 seems way high. 50 Shades in the 100s?

 

The Good Dinosaur opens on a Wednesday during Thanksgiving, a 40s opening is very good for that frame.  (5 day would be in the high 50s to low 60s)

 

The Conjuring had fantastic reception for a horror movie, put it in October where they historically have huge openings and it can get a Paranormal Activity effect.

 

Don't doubt how hyped 50 Shades is, it'll have a huge OD and then with Valentines Day on Saturday it'll keep up the demand, it'll then follow with a spectacularly large Sunday drop.

[Neo]

The Good Dinosaur opens on a Wednesday during Thanksgiving, a 40s opening is very good for that frame.  (5 day would be in the high 50s to low 60s)

 

The Conjuring had fantastic reception for a horror movie, put it in October where they historically have huge openings and it can get a Paranormal Activity effect.

 

Don't doubt how hyped 50 Shades is, it'll have a huge OD and then with Valentines Day on Saturday it'll keep up the demand, it'll then follow with a spectacularly large Sunday drop.

100M+ in February, not happening.

[James]

100M+ in February, not happening.

Nor does 150M in December

[Neo]

Nor does 150M in December

[The Panda]

100M+ in February, not happening.

 

I thought it's been pretty much proven this year big openings can happen anywhere as long as you have the right movie.

 

Besides Passion of the Christ adjusts to 110m, 50 Shades is opening on an inflated Valentines Day weekend and is an extremely popular book that's going to be frontloaded and has gotten tons of coverage already.  100m seems very likely.

 

Star Wars is a wild card, I personally think a lot of people are undershooting it, but it could open anywhere.

[Neo]

I thought it's been pretty much proven this year big openings can happen anywhere as long as you have the right movie.

 

Besides Passion of the Christ adjusts to 110m, 50 Shades is opening on an inflated Valentines Day weekend and is an extremely popular book that's going to be frontloaded and has gotten tons of coverage already.  100m seems very likely.

 

Star Wars is a wild card, I personally think a lot of people are undershooting it, but it could open anywhere.

Guardians/TWS Marvel are you talking about Lego/TMNT because thats 30M more.

[The Panda]

Guardians/TWS Marvel are you talking about Lego/TMNT because thats 30M more.

 

Fifty Shades of Grey has much more OW potential than LEGO and TMNT

[DAJK]

Top 5 January:

 

1. Taken 3 - 38.1 million  (franchise reliability, albeit with a drop from the second installment)

2. The Wedding Ringer - 30.2 million (interesting looking comedy with Kevin Hart)

3. American Sniper (expanding) 27.9 million (will probably generate some buzz over Christmas, like Lone Survivor on a smaller scale)

4. Blackhat - 23.8 million (I expect this to be quite good compared to most January films)

5. Lazarus - 18.3 million (I say this performs better than Amityville as "THE horror" of January)

 

 

Top 5 February:

 

1. Fifty Shades of Grey - 84.8 million (popular book, will have huge crowds going to see it)

2. Jupiter Ascending - 36.2 million (I expect that we will see a lot of marketing in the future that may intrigue audiences)

3. Focus - 31.3 million (rom-com with Will Smith should at least do decent numbers)

4. SpongeBob Square Pants: Sponge Out Of Water - 29.6 million (it's still SpongeBob... it'll have an audience)

5. Kingsman: The Secret Service - 22.4 million (will hopefully provide counter programming to Fifty Shades...)

 

 

Top 5 March:

 

1. Cinderella - 78.7 million (will probably play like another Maleficent or Oz)

2. Insurgent - 61.1 million (won't increase big, could be over/under 60M)

3. Home - 36.9 million (better than Peabody numbers, but not as high as Croods)

4. Get Hard - 33.5 million (comedy with Will Ferrel/Kevin Hart should be good)

5. Chappie - 27.8 million (this won't drop too big from Elysium)

 

 

Top 5 April:

 

1. Fast and Furious 7 - 108.3 million (this could very likely hit 110-120, but unless the marketing is perfect, I'm saying sub-110)

2. Run All Night - 32.2 million (Liam Neeson action movies have their own loyal fan-base)

3. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 - 27.9 million (this will still make money, but decrease)

4. Selfless - 25.8 million

5. Child 44 - 19.7 million (this is a wide release right? I think it has a lot of potential...)

 

 

Top 5 May:

 

1. Monster Tru-... NO OBVIOUSLY AVENGERS - 221.6 million

2. Tomorrowland - 61.9 million (around 70-71M for 4-day, with great legs afterwards)

3. Mad Max - 48.5 million (this is a bit of a wild card, but I think it can post decent numbers)

4. Spy - 39.8 million (45 4-day, this could be the Hangover 3 of the weekend)

5. Hmm... Either Pitch Perfect 2 or "Untitled Cameron Crowe" at 35 million

 

 

Top 5 June:

 

1. Jurassic World - 87.3 million (this will probably be big, with giant OS #s as well)

2. Ted 2 - 71.1 million (capitalizing on the success of the first, it'll open big regardless of reviews *cough cough Hangover 2*)

3. Inside Out - 70.6 million (this could be close with Ted 2, but I think this will have great legs, ultimately reaching close to 270M)

4. The Fantastic 4 - 61.6 million (call me an optimist, despite opening against Inside Out, I say this will do well)

5. B.O.O - 40.5 million (I have a lot of hope for this one, and I'm sensing an OW close to the Croods...)

 

 

Top 5 July:

 

1. Minions - 115 million (I'm pretty sure this is opening on a Friday; anyways... the Minions are HUGE with kids!)

2. Ant-Man - 92.3 million (despite whatever problems it may or may not have, Marvel as a brand is a draw, and people will come see this on opening weekend)

3. Terminator Genisys - 63.6 million 3-day (the buzz will be there, and if this is better that Salvation, it will be seen as a success)

4. Pan - 56.2 million (really going out on a limb here, although Pixels could take this spot...)

5. Paper Towns - 37.7 million (Fault in our Stars was big, and while this book wasn't nearly as popular, a lot of the same audience should come out for this)

 

 

Top 5 August:

 

1. Goosebumps - 59.5 million (I think this will do well, very well! Kids will want to see it, and also older audiences who read the books)

2. Assassin's Creed - 39.8 million (I still don't think this will make the date, but it's schedules so I'm making a prediction)

3. Man From U.N.C.L.E - 30.4 million (being pushed back to August was a good move, this will have room to breathe)

4. Sinister 2 - 23.7 million (this could go either way, but I'm predicting a slight bump on OW and DOM)

5. Regression...? - 16.4 million (I really don't know much about this, but there isn't much else coming out. I'm guessing something from July might actually move to August however. Maybe Pan...?)

 

 

Top 5 (4) September:

 

1. Hotel Transylvania 2 - 44.1 million (I see this franchise staying flat)

2. Everest - 35.8 million (I think this will do very well, especially as September right now looks weak)

3. The Intern - 21.4 million (don't have much interest in seeing this personally)

4. Black Mass - 16.9 million (an action movie being released in September... however it could be a smart move as there will be little competition)

 

 

Top 5 October:

 

1. The Jungle Book - 58.6 million (this could take the October OW record from Gravity. I don't see Maleficent numbers happening, but this will most likely be a solid hit)

2. The Conjuring 2 - 47.9 million (the first was well-liked and made a lot of money. If Annabelle delivers, the demand will be even higher)

3. Spielberg Cold War Thriller - 28.1-38.1 million (Spielberg + Coen Brothers? I'm in! Not sure how big the OW will be, but I expect the legs to be phenomenal)

4. London Has Fallen - 27.6 million (the original did well, and the sequel seems to be going in a different direction...)

5. Victor Frankenstein - 21.4 million (not a break out hit, but will still do better than I Frankenstein)

 

 

Top 5 November:

 

1. Mockingjay Part 2 - 189.3 million (the final entry should have a MASSIVE opening weekend, then drop from there)

2. Bond 24 - 112.1 million (this may be a risky prediction, but the Bond brand is hot right now, so this new installment will capitalize on the popularity on OW)

3. The Good Dinosaur - 59.2 million (this IS opening on a Wednesday, but the Thanksgiving holiday will help boost this film's OW)

4. Peanuts - 51.4 million (I think this will do well. The Wreck-it-Ralph box office wise of November)

5. The Martian - 32.9 million (yes, it does open on a Wednesday, but the OW will still be respectable. Could approach 50M in its first 5 days)

 

 

Top 5 December:

 

1. Star Wars VII - 128.6 million (this IS very high for December, but the hype will be through the roof, and the legs will also be great, making this one of the top earning films of the year)

2. Kung Fu Panda 3 - 48.4 million (opening against Star Wars will be tough, but Po and friends will manage)

3. Mission Impossible 5 - 43.9 million (it will be difficult for this to be huge on OW, but the film will have typical December legs, if not better) 

4. Untitled Seth Rogen Comedy - 31.2 million (Seth Rogen is popular right now, that's all there is to it  )

5. Joy (David O Russel film) - 21.7 million (David O Russel is on a roll right now box office wise, and critically)

[Noctis]

It also had a very low Saturday and Sunday number compared to most massive openers

It also decimated all the other openers OS.I can play this game, too.