Official Weekend Estimates: Maleficent - 70M, X-Men - 32.6M, A Million Ways - 17.1M, Godzilla - 12.2M

[Jake Gittes]

Great start for Maleficent. With strong family appeal and early signs of strong WOM, this looks poised to sail north of 200m. I didn't see that happening a couple weeks ago.

 

Man, what a hard hit for X-Men. The franchise is doomed to be frontloaded no matter what kind of WOM it gets. Let's not forget that X2 only managed a 2.5 multiplier way back in '03. Let's hope it can stabilize after the post-Memorial drop.

I said this before, but X2's legs got destroyed by Matrix Reloaded. Its 53% second weekend drop wasn't bad at all.

[#ED]

So DOFP is still going to make just enough for 700M WW.

[bballman24]

GODZILLA's WOM was mixed. Absolutely. I'm just saying, for the purposes of our predictions and expectations and analysis, WOM (applied across the board) isn't everything.

 

Down the road, it's probably worth it to plan a low-multiplier into predictions for movies in this genre (and certainly for a Godzilla sequel).

[a2k]

I said this before, but X2's legs got destroyed by Matrix Reloaded. Its 53% second weekend drop wasn't bad at all.

was bad for 2003. also going against just daddy day care.

[Chewy]

Agreed. I think it's good practice to plan for low multipliers in general (with only occasional exceptions).

 

True. But Godzilla was supposed to be one of those exceptions! Great trailers, very good cast, awesome effects, "next Spielberg" talk from people who'd seen it

 

Most people thought this was gonna have a pretty good OW and great legs. Instead it had a great opening and crap legs

[Dementeleus]

Early positive WOM?  Really?  I thought the initial reaction to it was quite poor.  

 

There are clearly a number of fans (perhaps even a significant number) who really, really loved it. This ties into what I'm saying about WOM taken as a general concept across the board. MAL may play great for big Jolie and/or Maleficent fans, but not for a broader audience. So, like X-MEN and GODZILLA (and others) it may be hard to claim a consensus.

[Dementeleus]

True. But Godzilla was supposed to be one of those exceptions! Great trailers, very good cast, awesome effects, "next Spielberg" talk from people who'd seen it

 

Most people thought this was gonna have a pretty good OW and great legs. Instead it had a great opening and crap legs

 

But that just points to how hype (of various sorts) can completely mislead in the final days before release. Obviously GODZILLA wasn't an exception.

[Shawn Robbins]

I said this before, but X2's legs got destroyed by Matrix Reloaded. Its 53% second weekend drop wasn't bad at all.

 

On top of that, as great of a movie X2 is (IMO), it always felt a little mature (i.e., fewer kids/families) compared to leggier superhero movies. I think DOFP is more appealing across the board.

 

Maybe its nature as the third comic book movie in less than two months could be the biggest hindrance to its legs. There's always been a risk of superhero burnout, and we might be seeing it right now.

Edited May 31, 2014 by ShawnMR

[reddevil18]

So DOFP is still going to make just enough for 700M WW.

Depends on OS. 500 is nowhere near assured. 450 is the safest I'd say right now.

[baumer]

I remember at the beginning of the BSG, I commented (and many others chimed in as well) that this summer was going to be very hard to predict as there wasn't one film that stood out as the one must see film of the summer.  Godzilla, ASM2, DOFP will all finish with about 200 mill and Neighbors with about 150.  The Neighbors number is fantastic and the one true breakout thus far.  

 

Three films that came out in April perhaps have the box office stories of the year so far.  Captain America 2, Heaven is For Real and The Other Woman.  All very successful and all exceeded expectations.

 

There are some big films coming out still so the summer is still up in the air but it is proving to be difficult to predict. 

[redfirebird2008]

MAL may play great for big Jolie and/or Maleficent fans

 

Wait...there are big Maleficent fans?

[Shawn Robbins]

True. But Godzilla was supposed to be one of those exceptions! Great trailers, very good cast, awesome effects, "next Spielberg" talk from people who'd seen it

 

Most people thought this was gonna have a pretty good OW and great legs. Instead it had a great opening and crap legs

 

 

Agreed. $220-225m looked very do-able after opening weekend.

[Dementeleus]

I said this before, but X2's legs got destroyed by Matrix Reloaded. Its 53% second weekend drop wasn't bad at all.

 

But if it was truly breaking out past its initial fanbase, wouldn't it be able to weather that a bit more? It never did, especially when you compare it to movies that generally did manage to appeal to a broader demo (like the Raimi Spideys).

[blackspider]

Early positive WOM?  Really?  I thought the initial reaction to it was quite poor.  

 

It got an "A" CinemaScore, for what it's worth. I think it's gonna have a nice little run. Disney is on a roll right now.

[grim22]

So DOFP is still going to make just enough for 700M WW.

 

Looks very likely. The week to week holds seem to be pretty good based on the numbers being given out in the International BO forum. Seems like we could have a number above 500M WW when the numbers are released tomorrow (would love it if it was around 550M WW). China still has around 30-35M left to give for DOFP before it gets pulled, and the holds in SK, UK, Russia etc. are pretty good.

[Jake Gittes]

was bad for 2003. also going against just daddy day care.

Two things to consider: the original X-Men had a noticeably worse 57% drop, and X2 was at the time the fourth biggest opener in history. The 53% drop might look bad compared to Spider-Man's 37% hold a year earlier, but that film was a phenomenon that X2 could never have been. 

Edited May 31, 2014 by Jake Gittes

[Chewy]

But that just points to how hype (of various sorts) can completely mislead in the final days before release. Obviously GODZILLA wasn't an exception.

 

It wasn't just the final days, it was months. Those trailers were genuinely great. Looked like it might be the best movie of the summer. Buzz was huge. All of that led to its breakout OW.

 

It's fallacious to now claim that the performance is fine because "most franchise pics perform like this". Most sequels do, franchise starters don't often break out with enormous OWs and follow that up with really pathetic legs

 

It's Man of Steel redux, basically. Except Man of Steel held better, against harsher competition

[grim22]

It got an "A" CinemaScore, for what it's worth. I think it's gonna have a nice little run. Disney is on a roll right now.

 

So 50 people across 5 theaters in NY and DC liked it. Cool.

[baumer]

It got an "A" CinemaScore, for what it's worth. I think it's gonna have a nice little run. Disney is on a roll right now.

 

I'm not invested in it one way or the other but not many here liked it and apparently the score from viewers is dropping hard on Rotten Tomatoes.

[reddevil18]

Three films that came out in April perhaps have the box office stories of the year so far.  Captain America 2, Heaven is For Real and The Other Woman. 

The Lego Movie trumps them.