Dragon Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 (edited) With EoT barely making 30 m, I have a feeling JA would've opened in the teens.Crisis averted?I think early 20s I believe. That's another one Wb failed to give a good trailer too. Marketing is everything. The movie could be shit but if that trailer made it look like event movie of the year the GA would flock to it like there is no tomorrow. Trailer back in the days made everything like event especially sci but now it's like eh. "You can watch it if you want" only comic movies seems to get them Edited June 7, 2014 by Dragon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 So I guess we have the answer to "How much can social media buzz help a movie?". To a decent amount, but not to an overwhelming amount. It will get the target audience in theaters on opening day for sure, beyond that the movie needs to sustain by itself. 23-24M is a good opening, but after a 8.2 midnights, the actual Friday number is lower than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 i don't think it can get 16m unless it goes up on friday. x3 made 16m with 4.96m on fri. even with better saturday, i see dofp at 4.5 + 6.53(+45%) + 4.44(-32%) = 15.47m Deadline's multiplier looks generous to me as well - last weeks was 3.46 which would mean $15.57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 (edited) X-Men EDIT:: Oh, it's Deadline. Fucking hell I was scared. Well, I still am, but glad to know it's probably greatly inaccurate. Edited June 7, 2014 by Mango Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Frankly the only reason I will watch EoT is how much praise it has received here and both the user and critic score on RT being too high. Before folks here mentioned how good it was and had good humor, I was going to skip it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 I think early 20s I believe. That's another one Wb failed to give a good trailer too.Marketing is everything. The movie could be shit but if that trailer made it look like event movie of the year the GA would flock to it like there is no tomorrow.Trailer back in the days made everything like event especially sci but now it's like eh. "You can watch it if you want" only comic movies seems to get them The "Into the storm" trailer looked really good on the big screen. If WB can string together a really good marketing campaign for it with plenty of money shots, I think it can open well, maybe even 30-40M if they get the marketing right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 (edited) I figured FIOS would end up around 25m for Friday. As I said, it's gonna be ultra frontloaded. A 45%+ drop tomorrow wouldn't surprise me. Too bad for EOT, but hardly surprising. That marketing was just atrocious. The movie will live or die by its legs. Don't even wanna talk about DOFP holds anymore. So damn disappointing. Edited June 7, 2014 by MovieMan89 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Remember, a lot of people will only go and see 10-12 movies a year. And EOT just isn't on their list. (Yet. Good WOM might help a tiny bit.) Since he has an older core audience hopefully it will have some legs to go along with the good WOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 The big stars of the 90's (Cruise, Will) have barely any of their former star power.And remakes from the 80's /90's mostly flop.Is nostalgia over-valued by Hollywood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Frankly the only reason I will watch EoT is how much praise it has received here and both the user and critic score on RT being too high. Before folks here mentioned how good it was and had good humor, I was going to skip it. You won't regret it. The humor really couldn't have been shown in the trailer to be fair, a lot of it is situational. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackout Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 X-Men EDIT:: Oh, it's Deadline. Fucking hell I was scared. Well, I still am, but glad to know it's probably greatly inaccurate. Are they usually inaccurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Are they usually inaccurate? Deadline typically lands in a close-ish range but are very rarely spot on. Honestly I'm pretty sure Deadline is mainly guesstimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Are they usually inaccurate? no, they are pretty good with numbers. at least the daily estimates if not the multipliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 (edited) The big stars of the 90's (Cruise, Will) have barely any of their former star power.And remakes from the 80's /90's mostly flop.Is nostalgia over-valued by Hollywood? Star power is no longer the main driver for 90+% of films - it's all about the concept - and the concepts that seem to sell are well known brands. Angelina's star persona as an actress matched up with Maleficent and Disney knows how to sell live action fairy tell re imaginations (pity they aren't as good at making them as they are animated one) and the trailers looked great = $$$ Cruise showed with MI4 he can still sell in the right brand. And as star he gives a floor - the movie is going to under perform but it won't be an outright bomb like Jupiter might have been. Overseas though still buys into established star power more than the U.S. - even Stateside bombs by Arnold and Sly make decent money overseas for the most part. Edited June 7, 2014 by TalismanRing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 no, they are pretty good with numbers. at least the daily estimates if not the multipliers. It's a bit more of a crap shoot the further you get away from the top 3 though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmnerdjamie Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Are they usually inaccurate? Deadline guesstimates and Finke the Hutt sucks at her multipliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 So what range will DOFP end up in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 It's a bit more of a crap shoot the further you get away from the top 3 though. Exactly. Deadline is typically passable with the bigger numbers, but the further down on the list you get, the more off they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 So what range will DOFP end up in? 225m ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecstasy Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 225m ish That will be enough to get it WW title for comic book movie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
