The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies OS Thread | 700M OS passed

[peludo]

Just a mistake, but my new prediction is 285 DOM and 745 OS, for a worldwide total for 1.030B.

Anyways, Obviously, it will reach over 200 DOM.

My most realistic and most optimistic guess is therefore 1.090B. (295 DOM+795 OS)

That seems more realistic

[Asyulus]

RT score is at 74%, which was similar to DOS but just 23 reviews.

High enough to regain confidence on audiences so i say 750-799 OS, for now.

[Leyla]

 

 

The widest release in the coming frame is reserved for Bilbo, Thorin, Legolas and the rest of the Middle Earth gang. Warner Bros is sending The Hobbit: The Battle Of The Five Armies into 40+ markets including the major grabs of the UK, France, Germany, Russia, Mexico, Brazil and Japan. Peter Jackson’s 3rd installment in the Hobbit trilogy began to bid a bittersweet farewell when it world premiered in London last week, in what the director reiterated was a film, “for the fans.” Reviews were largely positive for the finale, which, in a twist these days, is not split into two parts – even if the decision to stretch three films out of JRR Tolkien’s original 310-page novel was met with controversy. The last episode of Jackson’s $3B grossing Lord Of The Rings in 2003 won the blockbuster series some serious Oscar love when Return Of The King scored 11 trophies including Best Picture. The Hobbit series has thus far been nominated for six, with no wins. Its cume to date is $1.96B after two movies. Battle Of The Five Armies is potentially looking at a $1B worldwide take given the finality surrounding it – and the consistently growing Chinese box office where the film is expected to expand on The Desolation Of Smaug’s fiery $75M ride. Smaug’s other biggest overseas markets were Germany ($88M) and the UK ($70M).

http://deadline.com/2014/12/exodus-gods-and-kings-interstellar-mockingjay-paddington-international-box-office-results-1201313759/

 

 

My evening IMAX screening on Dec 11 is more than half sold   

[Asyulus]

It doesn't always happen. Matrix revolutions was the lowest grossing of the series, same with back to the future, the mummy series, the hangover, Jurassic park they all decreased in their third film.I get the feeling that generally people are losing interest in middle earth. the quality of the film and pre-release hype will be very important.

Because they lack marketing and theyre ripped into pieces by critics.

[Quigley]

I think the finale factor will have a big effect just like it did for Twilight, Harry Potter, The Dark Knight Rises, regardless of critics ratings. $820M

[ShouldIBeHere]

Calculating how many more tickets BotFA has to sell in order to not drop (especially in Russia and Europe) I think AUJ's OS number is the limit...

 

Euro and Rubel are way too weak right now.

Edited December 9, 2014 by ShouldIBeHere

[Leyla]

just checked some seat availability of theaters in diff cities & 2 HFR showings in 1 city are all sold out (while others are relatively emty now)   

either its a glitch or I underestimated the popularity of that format  

[ShouldIBeHere]

In Germany they again expanded HFR (after already expanding from AUJ to DoS) showing because last year HFR screenings were sold out first.

[Leyla]

I let my own bias get in the way it seems 

will never go to HFR showing

 

 

from the UK thread

 

Hobbit pre-sales looks good. First opened to £11.6m but had a 4 day opening. Fri-Sun would have been £9.5m.

 

DOS opened to £9.6m, three day.

 

Hobbit 3 opens Friday, so £10m is a reasonable expectation I'd say.

Edited December 9, 2014 by Tauriel

[peludo]

just checked some seat availability of theaters in diff cities & 2 HFR showings in 1 city are all sold out (while others are relatively emty now) 

either its a glitch or I underestimated the popularity of that format  

The HFR format is quite well beloved here too. The theater I am tracking has, for the moment, 3 daily HFR showtimes on Wednesday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The sum of all of them gives a 60% full. Adding the showtimes in the biggest screen (996 seats) and the marathon of Tuesday, you get 4,500 seats out 12,000 already sold. More showtimes will be added for sure by weekend.

 

I do not have a AUJ or DOS reference to compare, but MJ1 had sold 4,200 tickets the day of release in the same theater, before the first Friday screening. Hobbit still has 8 days more. I will try to update later (it is a bit tedious  )

[James]

The pace at which the tickets are selling here for IMAX and ordinary 3D (the 3D/IMAX 3D version is the only one you can see) shows is just insane. It's already the biggest advance ticket seller ever and that's almost 2 weeks before it's release (opens on 19th here ). Also, it's crazy how the prices exploded for this. You have tickets selling at $10-20 when the ordinary 3D ticket price is $6.

[Rsyu]

The pace at which the tickets are selling here for IMAX and ordinary 3D (the 3D/IMAX 3D version is the only one you can see) shows is just insane. It's already the biggest advance ticket seller ever and that's almost 2 weeks before it's release (opens on 19th here ). Also, it's crazy how the prices exploded for this. You have tickets selling at $10-20 when the ordinary 3D ticket price is $6.

 

That's pretty great, hope it's an indicator that it will do well in Europe. 

 

So wait...ticket prices can change depending on the film?

[Leyla]

The HFR format is quite well beloved here too. The theater I am tracking has, for the moment, 3 daily HFR showtimes on Wednesday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The sum of all of them gives a 60% full. Adding the showtimes in the biggest screen (996 seats) and the marathon of Tuesday, you get 4,500 seats out 12,000 already sold. More showtimes will be added for sure by weekend.

 

I do not have a AUJ or DOS reference to compare, but MJ1 had sold 4,200 tickets the day of release in the same theater, before the first Friday screening. Hobbit still has 8 days more. I will try to update later (it is a bit tedious  )

great news! thanks for tracking!!!

I remember we talked abt that huge screen last year  

looked impressive! will there be a special design of the place dedicated to the film???

 

& ugh u lucky Spanish ppl have marathons too 

our distributor sucks big time btw

 

The pace at which the tickets are selling here for IMAX and ordinary 3D (the 3D/IMAX 3D version is the only one you can see) shows is just insane. It's already the biggest advance ticket seller ever and that's almost 2 weeks before it's release (opens on 19th here ). Also, it's crazy how the prices exploded for this. You have tickets selling at $10-20 when the ordinary 3D ticket price is $6.

I compared prices for my Bofa & DOS premiere tickets & they are surprisingly the same - 700 roubles

I thought they will be much higher (havent visited IMAX since DOS))))

 

As I mentioned earlier we will have more expensive tickets on holidays (& I was ready to pay!!) but too bad I doubt that BOFA will have that much screens by that time 

[James]

That's pretty great, hope it's an indicator that it will do well in Europe. 

 

So wait...ticket prices can change depending on the film?

No, that never happens. That's the thing. The first two Hobbit were enormous sellers here (no. 2 and 3 all time, after Avatar) and now the theatres seem to introduce a lot of things like premiers, special booking, select theatre rooms, crazy night hours - shows like these are very expensive. And even the ordinary shows are more expensive. Also, the biggest theatre chain is heavily marketing the movie and, above all, it suspended the booking for Exodus, that opens this week, and gave an insane number of shows to TH. I'm guessing the widest release ever easily. 

[peludo]

great news! thanks for tracking!!!

I remember we talked abt that huge screen last year  

looked impressive! will there be a special design of the place dedicated to the film???

 

& ugh u lucky Spanish ppl have marathons too 

our distributor sucks big time btw

It is not the same screen. The complex has 25 screens. The biggest is the 25th with 1,000 seats and it has 2D shows. The specially designed is small (about 200 seats) and it is the dedicated to 3D HFR. Here are some images of it:

 

 

 

 

The biggest screen is this:

 

Edited December 9, 2014 by peludo

[Leyla]

It is not the same screen. The complex has 25 screens. The biggest is the 25th with 1,000 seats and it has 2D shows. The specially designed is small (about 200 seats) and it is the dedicated to 3D HFR. Here are some images of it:

 

 

 

The biggest screen is this:

 

 

AH yep this images I remember

for some reason my emmory combined these 2 into 1 

 

 

No, that never happens. That's the thing. The first two Hobbit were enormous sellers here (no. 2 and 3 all time, after Avatar) and now the theatres seem to introduce a lot of things like premiers, special booking, select theatre rooms, crazy night hours - shows like these are very expensive. And even the ordinary shows are more expensive. Also, the biggest theatre chain is heavily marketing the movie and, above all, it suspended the booking for Exodus, that opens this week, and gave an insane number of shows to TH. I'm guessing the widest release ever easily. 

its great that at least ur distributor gets the job done!

 

 

checked some other HFR shows in some cities & they dont have that many seats taken

So it must be a glitch or some organization just bought the whole room for its workers  

[Rsyu]

No, that never happens. That's the thing. The first two Hobbit were enormous sellers here (no. 2 and 3 all time, after Avatar) and now the theatres seem to introduce a lot of things like premiers, special booking, select theatre rooms, crazy night hours - shows like these are very expensive. And even the ordinary shows are more expensive. Also, the biggest theatre chain is heavily marketing the movie and, above all, it suspended the booking for Exodus, that opens this week, and gave an insane number of shows to TH. I'm guessing the widest release ever easily. 

 

Cool. Any chance it becomes the #1 release of all time in Romania?

[James]

Cool. Any chance it becomes the #1 release of all time in Romania?

No. Not even a chance. Actually, because of the out of this world gross of Avatar compared to the size market, most analysts don't even mention it in they articles. Avatar made 6.35M. That alone represented 1/4 of the yearly box office back in 2010 (it would represent about 1/9 of 2014's market). Each of the Hobbits made 2.5M. That's why I said that TH is what Avatar is for US, because 2.5M is huge. Actually, aside from TH, there are only two movies (one Ice Age and one POTC) that ever made more than 2M. Now just think about what Avatar did. It would mean 2.5B at the US box office. It was more than abnormal. Nothing will touch it in the next 10 years, even with the continuous increase of the market.

As for what BotFA can do, I'm sure it will do more than 2.5M. With good WOM and bigger ticket prices there's a chance it makes 3M (and maybe around 450.000-500.000 admissions).

[Rsyu]

No. Not even a chance. Actually, because of the out of this world gross of Avatar compared to the size market, most analysts don't even mention it in they articles. Avatar made 6.35M. That alone represented 1/4 of the yearly box office back in 2010 (it would represent about 1/9 of 2014's market). Each of the Hobbits made 2.5M. That's why I said that TH is what Avatar is for US, because 2.5M is huge. Actually, aside from TH, there are only two movies (one Ice Age and one POTC) that ever made more than 2M. Now just think about what Avatar did. It would mean 2.5B at the US box office. It was more than abnormal. Nothing will touch it in the next 10 years, even with the continuous increase of the market.

As for what BotFA can do, I'm sure it will do more than 2.5M. With good WOM and bigger ticket prices there's a chance it makes 3M (and maybe around 450.000-500.000 admissions).

 

Yeah you're right, that is a crazy film gross to box office size ratio. Beyond huge. I can't imagine a film taking a quarter of the years box office earnings in any other country.

[Olive]

Hobbit 3 opens in these markets this week:

 

Austria	10 December 2014
Belgium	10 December 2014
Germany	10 December 2014
Denmark	10 December 2014
Finland	10 December 2014
France	10 December 2014
Kenya	10 December 2014
Luxembourg	10 December 2014
Netherlands	10 December 2014
Norway	10 December 2014
Sweden	10 December 2014
Albania	11 December 2014
Bosnia and Herzegovina	11 December 2014
Brazil	11 December 2014
Costa Rica	11 December 2014
Czech Republic	11 December 2014
Croatia	11 December 2014
Iraq	11 December 2014
Lebanon	11 December 2014
Republic of Macedonia	11 December 2014
Mexico	11 December 2014
New Zealand	11 December 2014
Peru	11 December 2014
Serbia	11 December 2014
Russia	11 December 2014
Slovenia	11 December 2014
Cyprus	12 December 2014
Estonia	12 December 2014
Egypt	12 December 2014
UK	12 December 2014
Ireland	12 December 2014
India	12 December 2014
Latvia	12 December 2014
Philippines	12 December 2014
Pakistan	12 December 2014
Slovakia	12 December 2014
South Africa	12 December 2014
Japan	13 December 2014