Weekend Estimates | TF4 - 100M (Paramount sticking to 100M for the Wknd Est)| More Numbers on Page 1

[Mango]

I love both How to Train Your Dragon movies but I can't help but believe Dreamworks kind of deserves this. Years and years of driving a "quantity over quality" mindset of pumping mediocre animated films out (aside from the occasional Panda or Dragon) and trying to recreate Shrek (also a series the ran into the ground) they finally get a film that is pretty much universally loved for being unique and unlike their other films. It opens modestly but great WOM brings it to a very good total. A big factor of what helped it was it's freshness and what does Dreamworks do? Immediately plan an onslaught of short films and a fucking TV show along with the inevitable sequel.

[grim22]

So after all the great reviewed movies this year and this summer, the only one will possibly hit 100M OW will be at 18% on RT. I kind of liked TF4 and the audience I was with applauded at the end, so the movie seems to be connecting with the GA a lot more than with critics.

[MrPink]

I love both How to Train Your Dragon movies but I can't help but believe Dreamworks kind of deserves this. Years and years of driving a "quantity over quality" mindset of pumping mediocre animated films out (aside from the occasional Panda or Dragon) and trying to recreate Shrek (also a series the ran into the ground) they finally get a film that is pretty much universally loved for being unique and unlike their other films. It opens modestly but great WOM brings it to a very good total. A big factor of what helped it was it's freshness and what does Dreamworks do? Immediately plan an onslaught of short films and a fucking TV show along with the inevitable sequel.

 

I think this is the biggest issue. Pixar maintains its brand by making one movie a year. It establishes a 'premium' connection of sorts with the audience. Dreamworks has started pumping out three movies a year, and it's no surprise that their troubles began right around the time they started shifting to that. And with other studios like Blue Sky, Sony, even WB jumping on board, that will only make it more difficult for Dreamworks to mark its territory among audiences

Edited June 28, 2014 by MrPink

[GiantCALBears]

I love both How to Train Your Dragon movies but I can't help but believe Dreamworks kind of deserves this. Years and years of driving a "quantity over quality" mindset of pumping mediocre animated films out (aside from the occasional Panda or Dragon) and trying to recreate Shrek (also a series the ran into the ground) they finally get a film that is pretty much universally loved for being unique and unlike their other films. It opens modestly but great WOM brings it to a very good total. A big factor of what helped it was it's freshness and what does Dreamworks do? Immediately plan an onslaught of short films and a fucking TV show along with the inevitable sequel.

They clearly need Michael Bay.

[Blackout]

So after all the great reviewed movies this year and this summer, the only one will possibly hit 100M OW will be at 18% on RT. I kind of liked TF4 and the audience I was with applauded at the end, so the movie seems to be connecting with the GA a lot more than with critics.

 

Did they applaud because the movie ended? 

[a2k]

Miserable total for HTTYD2. It should end the weekend with 122M and his DOM total should be something like 150-160M when all is said and done. 

 

It made 14m from mon-thu last week, so it will make about 22-25m in all the remaining weekdays combined.

Will make 13.5-14m this weekend, so again should make 22-25m in all the remaning weekends.

So I think it will end close to 170m.

But very disappointing. No doubt about that.

Multiplier will be around 3.4x. Par with June animations.

Edited June 28, 2014 by a2k

[grim22]

Did they applaud because the movie ended?

Nope, the group of teens right behind me went "That was awesome" and while walking out I heard that sentiment echoed by a lot of people. The movie is connecting with the GA very well regardless of how critics or the forum feels about it. It also has a clear 10 days ahead thanks to no big openers over the 4th of July weekend.

[Mango]

Let's go Apes!?

 

If it had Imagine Dragons doing a song for it, I'd say it would do $100 million.

 

Since it doesn't I'm going with $55-65.

[grim22]

In terms of trailers, TMNT, Equalizer and Into The Storm got the best reactions during my screening. Dracula Untold got an audible "what the hell was that?" Reaction from the guy behind me.

[MrPink]

Didn't get a TMNT trailer, Dracula Untold had people puzzled. Interstellar got a few whispers, Guardians got a couple laughs and such. Other than that, nada.

[druv10]

Certainly I don't think Transformers is locked to beat CA2 however I am saying we shouldn't close the door on the possibility of it actually having better legs than a lot of blockbusters, especially the ones in May which all ate each other save for Maleficent.

 

 You maybe right. Certainly 300M is off the table. First summer with no 300M grosser since 2001 when Shrek 1 made 267M. 

[RTX]

 

The breakdown is 64% male/36% female with 58% 25 and older.

 

What this tells us is that TF4 could benefit from a more prominent love story. Teenage girls did not turn out this time.

[Mango]

2014 has been a pretty shitty year but I think 2015 is going to be ridiculously huge so I think it will compensate. 

 

AoU for $90 million OD?

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

Franchise fatigue is definitely affecting the franchise but in this franchise case, it still allows a strong total

 

We're looking at day one.

[TalismanRing]

What this tells us is that TF4 could benefit from a more prominent love story. Teenage girls did not turn out this time.

 

Transformers movies could benefit from less embarrassing female characters.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

The reactions to TF4's number on this thread...

 

[Jawa]

Did anyone honestly think 2014 was going to be anything other than lackluster? I guarantee Mockingjay doesn't hit 400m either. Guarantee.

[Mango]

Did anyone honestly think 2014 was going to be anything other than lackluster? I guarantee Mockingjay doesn't hit 400m either. Guarantee.

 

I don't think it will either but Catching Fire wasn't supposed to either and look at how that ended up. Don't count out THG franchise. 

[Hilderic]

HTTYD2 O/U KFP2?

[Jake Gittes]

TA2 will be huge next summer but there's a good chance there's a $300-350m gap between it and whatever the #2 film is. Inside Out is the only other summer release with a high chance of making 200m DOM. Plenty of movies could surprise, of course, but then we could also get a repeat of this summer.