Weekend Numbers: GOTG - 94M (PG 180) [25.5M Sunday (Spatula) Cancel the Godzilla legs!]

[filmlover]

Yeah, competition is gonna get pretty dire once we get past the weekend of August 15, if not this upcoming weekend, for like a month. I think Guardians will hold up relatively well because of that.

Edited August 5, 2014 by filmlover

[CoolioD1]

yeah, if it has a big drop next weekend I'm not gonna freak out. I'm sure it's gonna hold well after that.

[baumer]

Yes. As long as it doesn't drop too harshly (over 60%) next weekend.

 

I am projecting it to reach 250M on Labor Day weekend. Just curious B, how many people had GotG as the #1 film in the summer game?

 

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[CoolioD1]

if it does win the summer that would be totally awesome then. always room for a good surprise no one saw coming.

[CJohn]

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I am pretty sure it will fly past my prediction sometime next Friday...

[baumer]

I am pretty sure it will fly past my prediction sometime next Friday...

 

It's already past mine. 

[CJohn]

It's already past mine. 

Fun Summer game. My top 15 is a disgrace. Every top is a disgrace. 

[Mojoguy]

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Was Dragon on the top spot in the summer game?

[CJohn]

Was Dragon on the top spot in the summer game?

I have the 2nd lowest prediction and I am still like 90M above from the total the movie will end with. 

[druv10]

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I think I've the highest prediction at 235M. 

[baumer]

Was Dragon on the top spot in the summer game?

 

Mostly.

[baumer]

Dragon is predicted to be number one by about 90% of the players.  ASM and Transformers also got votes as well as Godzilla.

Edited August 5, 2014 by baumer

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

Who would win next weekend?  TMNT or GOTG?

 

 

It could be close. If GOTG can stay above 40m then it has a shot, IMO since it would not surprise me to see TMNT shoot below that mark.

[CloneWars]

It's kind of funny to think though we had a bunch of movies open in the 90M's this year.

[ACSlater]

i really wouldnt be surprised if we got a stand alone rocket movie in the near future.

 

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

It's kind of funny to think though we had a bunch of movies open in the 90M's this year.

 

 

I posted something yesterday that showed a total of FIVE 90-100m Friday openers from 2001-2013. Six this year, so far.

[Jandrew]

I posted something yesterday that showed a total of FIVE 90-100m Friday openers from 2001-2013. Six this year, so far.

And I posted that same thing Saturday lol. And we had 7 from 01-03, 6 this year.

[Wrath]

The ones over 4 were midweek openers so you can throw those out. Now your average is 2.68 and you failed to include all kinds of SH films with lower than or equal to 2.5 multis like FF2, DD, GR, Watchmen, Hulk, TIH, GL, Catwoman, Elektra etc. etc. etc. Which would easily bring that average down to below 2.5.

 

Besides, I never said GOTG would pitch lower than 2.5, but that CBSH films "usually do not have better than 2.5 multis". GOTG could get over 2.5, but if it does, it is an overachiever in the genre, hence should be lauded for such a feat, not looked down upon for not reaching, say 3, or even 2.8. 

 

I do know what I'm talking about on this subject.

 

Well, sure, I mean, I don't doubt you know what you're talking about, but like I said, I was looking at "successful" adaptations and set a decently high bar to reflect that, a bar which GotG should get over quite easily.

 

It seems a little weird that you're trotting out some of those movies as ones you'd seriously consider comps with which to judge how GotG is going to do.  I mean, one thing those movies all had in common was that they were at best mediocre and for the most part pretty bad.  

 

I mean, look at those RT%!

 

Daredevil 45%

Elektra 10%

Watchmen 65%

GL 26%

TIH 67%

Hulk 62%

Catwoman 9%

FF2 27%

 

I never saw either of the Hulks but was told they were "Fine, I guess" which about matches their RT%, and no one's a bigger Watchmen fan than me, but even I'd concede that the only way WM got as high as 65% was through some fanboy reviewing.  It wasn't awful, for the most part, and it had some moments that were great, but overall it certainly wasn't good.  

 

Review quality (for the most part) obviously is going to impact a movie's domestic multiple, so it seems weird that you're saying GotG might not necessarily expect to have strong legs because Catwoman and Elektra didn't.  I mean, I get that they're all comic adaptations, but I think some allowances should be made not to dump the "sub-10% RT" movies in with the "over 90% RT" movies. Windtalkers tanking at the box-office shouldn't really be taken as an indication of how Inglourious Basterds is going to do, even though they're both WW2 movies, right?

 

So, 2.5 is probably a fair multiple for *all* adaptations, but once you get up into the "good/successful" adaptations, I think the multiple starts ratcheting up a bit, just like you wouldn't expect FF2 to have good legs.

Edited August 5, 2014 by Wrath

[Wrath]

It could be close. If GOTG can stay above 40m then it has a shot, IMO since it would not surprise me to see TMNT shoot below that mark.

 

What % drop would that take?  58% or so?  That doesn't seem unreasonable.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

 

 

Ohhhh. if I could make that my sig...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I can!