Mojoguy Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 GOTG is a lot more accessible to families compared to CA:TWS which should help with 2nd weekend hold. I believe there is a rush factor that TWS had that GOTG simply doesn't. Many people were still uncertain about going to see GOTG on the first weekend since the characters are so obscure, and are waiting for good WOM before going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 (edited) Which would still be strong result for GOTG. It would be 2nd biggest 2nd weekend of the year and in the process lock up 250M. I agree it would be a good number. Anything under 58%, imo, is a good number. There's no mystery to this film, in terms of how well it is liked. People love it, there is no denying that. Edited August 7, 2014 by baumer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I believe there is a rush factor that TWS had that GOTG simply doesn't. Many people were still uncertain about going to see GOTG on the first weekend since the characters are so obscure, and are waiting for good WOM before going. How is there no rush factor to GOTG when it had the highest preview total of the year so far? Come on guys, it's okay to be a loonie,. but get real here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 How is there no rush factor to GOTG when it had the highest preview total of the year so far? Come on guys, it's okay to be a loonie,. but get real here. I'm saying there was a rush factor for the MCU fanboys, but the casual audiences didn't rush to to see it on opening weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 How is there no rush factor to GOTG when it had the highest preview total of the year so far? Come on guys, it's okay to be a loonie,. but get real here. Clearly Thursday previews had a rush factor so we agree on something about GOTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 (edited) GOTG is a lot more accessible to families compared to CA:TWS which should help with 2nd weekend hold.This. I may sound crazy but... $400m is not out of the question. I can see this franchise being as big as The Avengers. Edited August 7, 2014 by lilmac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Clearly Thursday previews had a rush factor so we agree on something about GOTG. But keep in mind that TWS was released in April, so less people could go see it on Thursday night compared to GOTG which was released in August. It's an apples and oranges comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I'm saying there was a rush factor for the MCU fanboys, but the casual audiences didn't rush to to see it on opening weekend. Then there is a rush factor. If there was no rush factor for this because only fanboys rushed out to see it, then New Moon had no rush factor either, nor did DH2 or SW or TDK.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accursed Arachnid!™ Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 One advantage that GOTG has over TWS is that GOTS is not a sequel, so it should automatically be less frontloaded than TWS. Any Marvel Universe film will act as a pseudo-sequel. Its Thu previews bear that fact out. Still, it is holding well compared to the true sequel TF4. It made less than TF4 on Sunday yet has surpassed it since. I keep waiting for a correction day and it hasn't happened yet. A 2nd weekend drop of 50%+ is inevitable though, IMO. Any talk of below 50% is hope, not reality. Being overly optimistic: Wed 8.8m Thu 8.4m(-5%) Fri 13.0m(+55%) Sat 18.2m(+40%) Sun 14.6m(-20%) 45.8m(-51%) All of those drops and increases are FAR better than Cap1(Also not a "sequel"). Temper your expectations or you're going to be disappointed. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Any Marvel Universe film will act as a pseudo-sequel. Its Thu previews bear that fact out. Still, it is holding well compared to the true sequel TF4. It made less than TF4 on Sunday yet has surpassed it since. I keep waiting for a correction day and it hasn't happened yet. A 2nd weekend drop of 50%+ is inevitable though, IMO. Any talk of below 50% is hope, not reality. Being overly optimistic: Wed 8.8m Thu 8.4m(-5%) Fri 13.0m(+55%) Sat 18.2m(+40%) Sun 14.6m(-20%) 45.8m(-51%) All of those drops and increases are FAR better than Cap1(Also not a "sequel"). Temper your expectations or you're going to be disappointed. Good post. I'm not sure why the ONLY film people are comparing this to is Apes. oh, wait, i know, because that one is the anomaly and not the norm like other films that they should be comparing it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accursed Arachnid!™ Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I have it dropping 55%. Me too. Which will be excellent, considering the time of year and how much demand it's burning off this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Captain America 1 is the closest comparison I can find and it's jumps on Fridays weren't that high. But maybe things have changed, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Go back to any year and look at the increases on the second Friday in August and none of them are higher than 65%. Apes is the exception, not the paradigm to which other movies should be used. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrath Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 (edited) If I may, I think there's some truth on both sides here. Among the small-ish audience of MCU fanboys, there was a real rush factor to see this movie (I bought my tickets a week in advance for Thursday night IMAX), and theaters accommodated them with extraordinary preview availability. Resulting in a massive Thursday and a somewhat weaker Friday, relative to what folks might have otherwise expected. However, awareness into the broader market isn't as strong as with CATWS. People probably are close to being as aware of the existence of this movie as they were for CATWS because Marvel is marketing the crap out of it. But since these are some C-grade heroes, the broader audience is less of aware of why they should care about seeing this movie. That's a point that strong WoM is addressing. This would probably be particularly true for the whole family-friendly segment, right? So, my expectation is that this is a film that would have huge previews (not because Fanboys are *more* interested in this than CATWS, just that theaters gave them (us) more opportunities for previews), a modestly lower first weekend and then a slightly better hold as WoM gradually spreads out to the more distant quadrants. That make sense? Edit - I agree that a 55% drop for the second weekend would be a *good* result, not bad. I'd love for it to drop less than 50% as well because then it would be almost assured of beating TMNT this weekend, but that's not based on anything actually objective. Edited August 7, 2014 by Wrath 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miketheavenger Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I've said it from the beginning, as long as Guardians stays above $40m, I'll be happy. This summer has been so disappointing and I don't want to be disappointed again. That's why I expect something that's actually quite reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eXtacy Posted August 7, 2014 Author Share Posted August 7, 2014 Any Marvel Universe film will act as a pseudo-sequel. Its Thu previews bear that fact out. Still, it is holding well compared to the true sequel TF4. It made less than TF4 on Sunday yet has surpassed it since. I keep waiting for a correction day and it hasn't happened yet. A 2nd weekend drop of 50%+ is inevitable though, IMO. Any talk of below 50% is hope, not reality. Being overly optimistic: Wed 8.8m Thu 8.4m(-5%) Fri 13.0m(+55%) Sat 18.2m(+40%) Sun 14.6m(-20%) 45.8m(-51%) All of those drops and increases are FAR better than Cap1(Also not a "sequel"). Temper your expectations or you're going to be disappointed. Basically what I have been thinking, except Sunday might drop more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Another thing GOTG has over TWS is that GOTG can bring in the Sci Fi audiences that love Star Wars and Star Trek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Godzilla Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Best Case scenario Fri - $15.4M Sat - $21.5M Sun - $16.1M $53M 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miketheavenger Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Best Case scenario Fri - $15.4M Sat - $21.5M Sun - $16.1M $53M A 44% drop? That's not the best-case scenario, that's wishful thinking. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Best Case scenario Fri - $15.4M Sat - $21.5M Sun - $16.1M $53M No, that is not best case. A best case has to have a film to juxtapose it to. What film are you using to give it such insane jumps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
