Weekend Prediction thread 5/24-5/27, Memorial Day weekend Play the Derby

[Asyulus]

3-day:

 

Magic Mike XXL  -  20M

Terminator Genisys  -  28M

____________________________

 

Jurassic World  -38%

Inside Out  -31%

Ted 2  -47%

Max  -24%

JW is only gonna drop -30%.

[dxmatrixdt]

Terminator - 52/82

Inside Out - 35

Magic Mike - 32.5/65

Jurassic World - 30

Ted 2 - 20

Max - 10

Edited June 28, 2015 by Matrix4you

[GregBeuke]

a 50% drop with zero family friendly competition over a holiday frame? Same for JW?

Jurassic World has held well for a while... and Terminator isn't looking like a mega-hit. JW should be able to do $35-40 million this weekend after a $55-57 million 3rd weekend.

IO should do $35-40 million since it's defying classic Pixar June opener holds.

Magic Mike should be much lower. $35-40 million for the 5 day... $62 million?? Similar to Ted 2, it's a sequel not too many people asked for.

If people are now seeing Terminator Genisys like I think they will. Then there is going to be a drop with Jurassic World. Since this is the first summer action movie competition that Jurassic World has faced and at some point majority of audiences are gonna have seen it already. Terminator Genisys is also going to be taking away many IMAX and 3D screens. 42/70 for Terminator wouldn't be massive numbers it would be solid numbers. Plus with the 4th on Saturday there's also going to be a drop. Since audiences only go to the movies in the mornings and afternoons really. I have no interest in Magic Mike and it appears you don't either. But woman are really excited for it. So it's going to have a good first five days at least. Edited June 29, 2015 by gb0708

[zackzack]

a 50% drop with zero family friendly competition over a holiday frame? Same for JW? 

 

Jurassic World has held well for a while... and Terminator isn't looking like a mega-hit. JW should be able to do $35-40 million this weekend after a $55-57 million 3rd weekend. 

 

IO should do $35-40 million since it's defying classic Pixar June opener holds. 

 

Magic Mike should be much lower. $35-40 million for the 5 day... $62 million?? Similar to Ted 2, it's a sequel not too many people asked for. 

 

I like this assessment. Like the disappointment of Ted 2, to should be noted that Magic Mike doesn't have the full force of Warner's marketing campaign in the weeks before its release date. OTOH, look at Paramount's relentless TV spots for T:Genesys

Edited June 29, 2015 by zackzack

[ClaudeManhattan]

I think most of you guys are underestimating Magic Mkie XXL.

This is only a $13 million movie with an spirited audience.

Warner Brothers is doing targeted audience marketing, mainly to women and gay men.

The first one opened at $39m on a three day weekend.

I see XXL opening a little over $50m for a five day opening and $37m(Friday-Sunday)

[Krissykins]

3 Day:

Terminator $32m

Magic Mike $25m

[WrathOfHan]

JW: 35M

IO: 28M
Terminator: 26M

Magic Mike: 21M

Ted: 15M 

 

TS3 earned 30M on this weekend, so I'm expecting slightly less for IO. Terminator and MM will probably earn around 20M from Wednesday and Thursday.

Edited June 29, 2015 by WrathOfHan

[DAJK]

JW: 35M

IO: 28M

Terminator: 26M

Magic Mike: 21M

Ted: 15M

TS3 earned 30M on this weekend, so I'm expecting slightly less for IO. Terminator and MM will probably earn around 20M from Wednesday and Thursday.

Magic Mike is probably going to be huge on Wednesday, then have a steep, steep drop Thursday before finally slightly rebounding on Friday for the weekend.

[LaneFair]

1. TG - 38M / 57M

2. IO - 36M / 46M

3. JW - 35M/ 48M

4. MM2 - 28M / 51M

 

I wonder if the recent gay marriage legalization will help MM2? I don't know just a random thought. May not only be women driving out in loads! 

[BenedictL11]

1. TG - 38M / 57M

2. IO - 36M / 46M

3. JW - 35M/ 48M

4. MM2 - 28M / 51M

 

I wonder if the recent gay marriage legalization will help MM2? I don't know just a random thought. May not only be women driving out in loads! 

That's a real good point about MM2? I would love to see that happen.

[filmlover]

^ LOL current events are not gonna have any effect whatsoever on Magic Mike XXL.

 

I'm still not sure how the movie will do. On one hand, it does seem like a largely unnecessary sequel on paper and the buzz is significantly quieter than it was for the first one back when it came out. On the other, the marketing campaign is rather striking and apparently the movie delivers the fun romp the first movie's marketing campaign promised instead of the dudebro dramedy that it really was. So, I don't know.

[melmanko]

Terminator 45m

JW 34m

IO 32m

MM39m

[mahnamahna]

7/3-7/5

1. Jurassic World: $38 million ($582 million) 
2. Inside Out: $36.5 million ($263 million) 
3. Terminator Genysis: $34 million ($59 million) 
4. Magic Mike XXL: $21 million ($39 million) 
5. Ted 2: $16 million ($66 million) 
6. Max: $9 million ($31 million) 
7. Spy: $6 million ($100 million)
8. San Andreas: $3 million ($148 million) 
9. Me and Earl and the Dying Girl: $2 million ($4 million) 
10. Dope: $1.5 million ($14 million)

7/10-7/12

1. Minions: $127 million 
2. Jurassic World: $24.5 million ($628 million) 
3. Inside Out: $17 million ($295 million) 
4. Terminator Genysis: $16 million ($91 million)
5. Gallows: $10.5 million 
6. Ted 2: $10 million ($85 million) 
7. Magic Mike XXL: $9 million ($56 million)
8. Spy: $5 million ($110 million) 
9. Max: $4.5 million ($39 million) 
10. Self/Less: $4 million 

7/17-7/19

1. Ant-Man: $78 million 
2. Minions: $63 million ($250 million)
3. Trainwreck: $27 million 
4. Jurassic World: $13 million ($652 million) 
5. Inside Out: $12 million ($318 million) 
6. Terminator Genysis: $6.5 million ($103 million) 
7. Ted 2: $4 million ($92 million) 
8. Gallows: $3.5 million ($18 million)
9. Magic Mike XXL: $3 million ($62 million) 
10. Spy: $2 million ($114 million) 

7/24-7/26

1. Pixels: $57 million 
2. Ant-Man: $32 million ($140 million) 
3. Minions: $30 million ($308 million)
4. Paper Towns: $23 million 
5. Trainwreck: $19.5 million ($66 million) 
6. Inside Out: $8.5 million ($334 million) 
7. Jurassic World: $8 million ($667 million) 
8. Southpaw: $5.5 million 
9. Terminator Genysis: $3 million ($109 million) 
10. Ted 2: $2 million ($96 million) 

7/31-8/2

1. MI5: $69 million 
2. Pixels: $33 million ($120 million)
3. Vacation: $24 million ($37 million) 
4. Minions: $16 million ($341 million) 
5. Ant-Man: $14 million ($167 million) 
6. Paper Towns: $12 million ($46 million)
7. Trainwreck: $10 million ($85 million)
8. Inside Out: $7.5 million ($348 million)
9. Jurassic World: $4.5 million ($675 million)
10. Southpaw: $3.5 million ($12 million)

[ClaudeManhattan]

MMXXL is out selling TG in online advances ticket sales.

Don't be surprise if XXL wins the weekend.

[Kalel009Shel]

Magic Mike is probably going to be huge on Wednesday, then have a steep, steep drop Thursday before finally slightly rebounding on Friday for the weekend.

I see TG taking the weekend by a mile.. No one I talked to on FB had anything in their mind besides checking out TG

aJPW and TED. Hopefully Ted makes a rebound!!!...

 

 

 3 Day for TG  60-70M.  Hoping for 70.. Or much more!

[Bishop54]

I see TG taking the weekend by a mile.. No one I talked to on FB had anything in their mind besides checking out TG

aJPW and TED. Hopefully Ted makes a rebound!!!...

 

 

 3 Day for TG  60-70M.  Hoping for 70.. Or much more!

Love you to death man but you've become the male version of Shay. 

[ClaudeManhattan]

I think MM is going to have a huge 5 days, it will sell more tickets than TG. However, TG will finish ahead of MM because of the 3D/IMAX ticket prices.

[GregBeuke]

I think MM is going to have a huge 5 days, it will sell more tickets than TG. However, TG will finish ahead of MM because of the 3D/IMAX ticket prices.

How are they currently selling on Fandango?

[zackzack]

How are they currently selling on Fandango?

 

With its older and less tech-savvy audience, Genesys' box office take will not be fully reflected in digital booking. There may be more walk-ups than you think

[Blankments]

1. Magic Mike XXL - 30.0M (48.1M 5-Day)
2. Inside Out - 28.8M
3. Terminator: Genisys - 28.2M (45.6M 5-Day)
4. Jurassic World - 26.7M
5. Ted 2 - 15.4M
6. Max - 6.1M
7. Spy - 5.0M
8. San Andreas - 3.0M
9. Me and Earl and the Dying Girl - 2.1M
10. Dope - 1.1M
11. Love and Mercy - 1.0M
12. Insidious Chapter 3 - 0.9M

Edited July 2, 2015 by Blankments