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Weekend Prediction thread 6/14-6/16 Play the Derby

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On 12/4/2016 at 10:08 PM, FantasticBeasts said:

Office Christmas Party: 21M

Moana 17 M

Fantastic Beasts: 14.5M

Arrival:6M

Allied: 5.1M

 

 

 

On 12/4/2016 at 10:17 PM, WrathOfHan said:

You're being waaaaaaaaaay too optimistic on FB.

I agree with Han. 14.5m would be a 20% drop. The smallest drop for a November Potter during this time frame was HP1's 37.7%. That would put Beasts at 11.3m. Of course, the competition (in term of openers) is weaker than for any other Potter, but even so, I don;t see it making more than 13m max. That would be a 29.5% drop, which would be already amazing. Anything over that and 235m is locked for this. 

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3 minutes ago, James said:

 

I agree with Han. 14.5m would be a 20% drop. The smallest drop for a November Potter during this time frame was HP1's 37.7%. That would put Beasts at 11.3m. Of course, the competition (in term of openers) is weaker than for any other Potter, but even so, I don;t see it making more than 13m max. That would be a 29.5% drop, which would be already amazing. Anything over that and 235m is locked for this. 

Well I see that data are not in my favour but I still want to remain optimistic. The longetivity was very good so far but it better start being GREAT!

P.S.: Obviously I didn't do some great research or anything. Neither I care that much about getting those right. Just for fun!

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  1. Moana - 19.8M
  2. Office Christmas Party - 18.4M
  3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 10.0M
  4. Arrival - 6.0M
  5. Allied - 5.6M
  6. Doctor Strange - 4.3M
  7. Manchester by the Sea - 3.8M
  8. Nocturnal Animals - 3.4M
  9. Trolls - 2.8M
  10. The Bounce Back - 2.6M
  11. Hacksaw Ridge - 2.5M
  12. Miss Sloane - 2.3M

Bad Santa 2 - 1.7M

Almost Christmas - 1.4M

Loving - 1.2M

Incarnate - 1.0M

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On 12/2/2016 at 5:53 PM, Blankments said:

Bleed for This is gone.

Rules Don't Apply is gone.

 

Moana - 14/3 (2D/3D) total 17 (no change)

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 9/7 (2D/3D) total 16 (no change)

Doctor Strange - 11/4 (2D/3D) total 15 (up 1)
Trolls - 13 (down 1)

Miss Sloane - 12 (debut)

Office Christmas Party - 12 (debut)

Allied - 10 (down 4)

Nocturnal Animals - 7 (debut)
Arrival - 5 (up 1)
Hacksaw Ridge - 5 (up 1)
Incarnate - 3 (down 7)
Moonlight - 2 (down 7)
Almost Christmas - 1 (down 2)
Bad Santa 2 - 1 (down 6)
The Edge of Seventeen - 1 (down 1)

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Moana: $19.7M

Office Christmas Party: $13.8M

Fantastic Beasts: $12M

Arrival: $5.9M

Doctor Strange: $4.7M

Allied: $4.6M

Hacksaw Ridge: $2.7M

Trolls: $2.6M

Manchester by the Sea: $2.5M

Miss Sloane: $2.4M

 

It'd be pretty funny if Manchester were to outgross Miss Sloane in 23% of the theaters...

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Spoiler

12/16-12/18

  1. Rogue One: $110.5 million 
  2. Collateral Beauty: $12 million 
  3. Moana: $11.5 million ($161 million)
  4. Office Christmas Party: $9 million ($32 million) 
  5. Manchester by the Sea: $5.5 million ($15 million) 
  6. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $4 million ($205 million) 
  7. Arrival: $3.5 million ($87 million) 
  8. Nocturnal Animals: $2.5 million ($10 million) 
  9. Allied: $2 million ($39 million) 
  10. La La Land: $2 million ($3 million) 

12/23-12/26

  1. Rogue One: $63 million/$86 million ($251 million) 
  2. Sing: $44 million/$60.5 million ($90 million) 
  3. Passengers: $28 million/$40.5 million ($60 million) 
  4. Assassin's Creed: $18 million/$27 million ($45 million)
  5. Moana: $10 million/$14.5 million ($186 million) 
  6. Collateral Beauty: $8 million/$10.5 million ($30 million) 
  7. Why Him?: $7.5 million/$16 million 
  8. La La Land: $7 million/$15 million ($22 million) 
  9. Fences: $6 million/$12.5 million ($13 million) 
  10. Office Christmas Party: $4.5 million/$5.25 million ($39 million) 
  11. Manchester by the Sea: $4 million/$5.5 million ($24 million) 
  12. Arrival: $2.5 million/$3.25 million ($92 million) 

12/30-1/2

  1. Rogue One: $45 million/$59 million ($350 million) 
  2. Sing: $44.5 million/$55 million ($176 million) 
  3. Passengers: $21 million/$26.5 million ($102 million) 
  4. La La Land: $19 million/$23.5 million ($58 million) 
  5. Moana: $15.5 million/$19 million ($218 million) 
  6. Fences: $14 million/$16.5 million ($39 million) 
  7. Why Him?: $12.5 million/$14.5 million ($38 million) 
  8. Assassin's Creed: $12 million/$14 million ($67 million) 
  9. Collateral Beauty: $9 million/$10 million ($48 million)
  10. Manchester by the Sea: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($34 million) 
  11. Arrival: $3 million/$3.5 million ($98 million) 
  12. Office Christmas Party: $2 million/$2.25 million ($43 million) 
 

 

Edited by mahnamahna
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