Weekend Prediction thread 5/17-5/19 Play the Derby

[trifle]

5 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I think Pete's Dragon and Sausage Party could break out since SS, should drop anywhere from 60-70% and both have glowing reviews.

8/12-14

1. Suicide Squad $45.5M

2. Pete's Dragon $31.3M

3. Sausage Party $28.7M

4. Jason Bourne $12.4M

5. Bad Moms $9.1M

6/7. FFJ/Star Trek Beyond: $7.2M

8. SLOP $5.5M

9. Lights Out $3.3M

10. Nine Lives $2.5M

 

 

 

Sausage Party only has NINE reviews and zero from Top Critics as far as I can tell.  Did they have an early 'fan screening' or something?

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, trifle said:

 

Sausage Party only has NINE reviews and zero from Top Critics as far as I can tell.  Did they have an early 'fan screening' or something?

They showed an early cut of it in Film festivals one at SBSWFF in March and one in Just for Laughs in late July. Most of Rogen's comedies tend to get decent reviews.

[Ray G]

1. Suicide Squad - 49.1M

2. Pete's Dragon - 39.8M

3. Sausage Part - 23.5M

4. Florence Foster Jenkins - 12.3M

5. Jason Bourne - 11.6M

6. Bad Moms - 8.8M

7. The Secret Life of Pets - 6.9M

8. Star Trek Beyond - 6M

9. Lights Out - 3.1M

10. Nine Lives - 2.7M

[Jonwo]

Given Ben-Hur's tracking, I would not be surprised if War Dog opens bigger than it. 

[Truckasaurus]

1) Suicide Squad
$42.8M (-68%)

 

2) Pete's Dragon
$28.6M

 

3) Sausage Party
$21.2M

 

4) Florence Foster Jenkins
$15.3M

 

5) Jason Bourne
$13M (-42%)

[Krissykins]

Pete's Dragon $23,000,000

Sausage Party $20,000,000

Florence $6,000,000

[Hiccup23]

My Early Top 5 Predictions

 

1. Suicide Squad- $44.3 million (-66.9%)

2. Pete's Dragon- $25.7 million

3. Sausage Party- $17.2 million (Heavily front loaded Friday)

4. Jason Bourne- $12.0 million (-46.4%)

5. Bad Moms- $8.8 million (-37.1%)

 

 

[Quigley]

Let's face it: there is no scenario in which Suicide Squad earns above $50m on its second weekend. Some things just can't happen.

[superweirdo87]

 

23 hours ago, Quigley said:

Let's face it: there is no scenario in which Suicide Squad earns above $50m on its second weekend. Some things just can't happen.

 

Deadline disagrees. Variety thinks 45-48, and Box Office Pro envisions a steep drop.

 

38.5M is what they see.

[DAJK]

Squad - $45M

Pete - $43M

Sausage - mid 20's

[Quigley]

2 hours ago, superweirdo87 said:

 

 

Deadline disagrees. Variety thinks 45-48, and Box Office Pro envisions a steep drop.

 

38.5M is what they see.

 

Deadline can disagree all it wants. It won't be their first or their last miscalculation. The hilariously positive article on SS's Tue gross shows how ridiculously optimistic they are. Just tell them to wait for the Wednesday drop.

[Blankments]

1. Suicide Squad - 41.7M
2. Pete's Dragon - 27.4M
3. Sausage Party - 23.3M
4. Bad Moms - 11.1M
5. Jason Bourne - 10.9M
6. The Secret Life of Pets - 8.2M
7. Florence Foster Jenkins - 7.4M
8. Star Trek Beyond - 5.8M
9. Lights Out - 4.3M
10. Nerve - 3.5M
11. Nine Lives - 2.9M
12. Ghostbusters - 2.9M

[mahnamahna]

8/12-8/14

1. Suicide Squad: $44 million ($225 million)
2. Pete's Dragon: $33.5 million 
3. Sausage Party: $20.5 million 
4. Jason Bourne: $14 million ($127 million) 
5. Bad Moms: $11 million ($71 million)
6. Florence Foster Jenkins: $7.5 million 
7. The Secret Life of Pets: $7 million ($334 million)
8. Star Trek Beyond: $6 million ($139 million)
9. Nine Lives: $3.5 million ($13 million) 
10. Lights Out: $3.5 million ($61 million) 

8/19-8/21

1. Kubo and the Two Strings: $24 million 
2. Suicide Squad: $21.5 million ($261 million) 
3. Pete's Dragon: $17 million ($56 million)
4. Ben-Hur: $15 million 
5. Sausage Party: $12 million ($39 million)
6. War Dogs: $10 million 
7. Jason Bourne: $9 million ($141 million) 
8. Bad Moms: $8 million ($84 million)
9. Florence Foster Jenkins: $6 million ($16 million) 
10. The Secret Life of Pets: $4 million ($339 million)

8/26-8/28

1. Kubo and the Two Strings: $17 million ($46 million)
2. Pete's Dragon: $13.5 million ($74 million) 
3. Suicide Squad: $12.5 million ($280 million)
4. Sausage Party: $9 million ($53 million) 
5. Ben-Hur: $8.5 million ($28 million) 
6. Don't Breathe: $7 million 
7. Bad Moms: $6.5 million ($93 million) 
8. Jason Bourne: $6 million ($150 million) 
9. War Dogs: $5 million ($18 million) 
10. Mechanic - Resurrection: $4.5 million 

9/2-9/5

1. Kubo and the Two Strings: $18 million/$26 million ($76 million)
2. Pete's Dragon: $14 million/$20 million ($97 million)
3. The Light Between Oceans: $11.5 million/$15 million 
4. Suicide Squad: $10 million/$13 million ($298 million)
5. Morgan: $9 million/$11 million 
6. Sausage Party: $7.5 million/$9.5 million ($66 million) 
7. Ben-Hur: $6 million/$7.5 million ($38 million) 
8. Bad Moms: $6 million/$7.5 million ($103 million) 
9. Jason Bourne: $5 million/$6.25 million ($159 million) 
10. War Dogs: $4 million/$5 million ($25 million)

[Impact]

Would not surprise me if Dragon is number one on its 3rd or 4th weekend to be honest.

[Maxmoser3]

3 hours ago, Impact said:

Would not surprise me if Dragon is number one on its 3rd or 4th weekend to be honest.

[Blankments]

On 8/6/2016 at 10:33 PM, Blankments said:

Captain Fantastic, Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates, Central Intelligence, and The Infiltrator are gone. Drive-in is Suicide Squad and Lights Out.

Hillary’s America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party, Finding Dory, The Legend of Tarzan, and The Purge: Election Year are gone. Drive-in is Suicide Squad and Jason Bourne.

 

Suicide Squad – 26/5/10/1/4 (2D/2D with D-BOX/3D/IMAX/IMAX 3D) total 46 (down 12)

Pete's Dragon - 17/9 (2D/3D) total 26 (debut)

Sausage Party - 18 (debut)

Bad Moms – 17 (down 2)
Jason Bourne – 17 (down 11)
Florence Foster Jenkins - 16 (debut)
Nine Lives – 16 (down 1)
The Secret Life of Pets – 15 (no change)
Star Trek Beyond – 13 (down 2)

Lights Out – 11 (down 7)
Ghostbusters – 8 (down 4)
Nerve – 8 (down 8)

Anthropoid - 5 (debut)

Ice Age: Collision Course – 5 (down 5)

[mahnamahna]

 

Spoiler

 

8/19-8/21

1. Ben-Hur: $22.5 million 
2. Kubo and the Two Strings: $22 million 
3. Suicide Squad: $21 million ($262 million) 
4. Sausage Party: $19.5 million ($71 million)
5. Pete's Dragon: $13 million ($40 million)
6. War Dogs: $10 million 
7. Bad Moms: $9 million ($87 million) 
8. Jason Bourne: $8.5 million ($142 million)
9. The Secret Life of Pets: $6 million ($343 million)
10. Florence Foster Jenkins: $5 million ($13 million)

8/26-8/28

1. Kubo and the Two Strings: $16.5 million ($44 million)
2. Don't Breathe: $13.5 million 
3. Ben-Hur: $12.5 million ($41 million) 
4. Pete's Dragon: $11.5 million ($55 million) 
5. Suicide Squad: $11 million ($278 million) 
6. Sausage Party: $10 million ($87 million) 
7. Bad Moms: $7.5 million ($98 million) 
8. Mechanic - Resurrection: $7 million 
9. War Dogs: $6.5 million ($20 million) 
10. Hands of Stone: $5.5 million 

9/2-9/5

1. Kubo and the Two Strings: $18 million/$26 million ($74 million) 
2. The Light Between Oceans: $13 million/$17.5 million 
3. Pete's Dragon: $12.5 million/$18 million ($76 million) 
4. Morgan: $11 million/$14 million 
5. Ben-Hur: $9.5 million/$12.5 million ($58 million) 
6. Don't Breathe: $8 million/$10 million ($27 million) 
7. Sausage Party: $7.5 million/$9.5 million ($100 million) 
8. Suicide Squad: $7 million/$9.5 million ($291 million) 
9. Bad Moms: $6.5 million/$8 million ($109 million) 
10. War Dogs: $5.5 million/$6.5 million ($29 million)

9/9-9/11

1. Sully: $28.5 million 
2. When the Bough Breaks: $16 million 
3. Kubo and the Two Strings: $8 million ($83 million)
4. The Light Between Oceans: $6.5 million ($26 million) 
5. Pete's Dragon: $6 million ($83 million) 
6. The Disappointments Room: $5.5 million 
7. Ben-Hur: $5 million ($64 million) 
8. Morgan: $4.5 million ($20 million) 
9. The Wild Life: $4 million 
10. Bad Moms: $4 million ($114 million) 

9/16-9/18

1. Blair Witch: $34 million 
2. Sully: $18.5 million ($55 million) 
3. Bridget Jones' Baby: $15 million 
4. Hillsong - Let Hope Rise: $9 million 
5. Snowden: $7 million 
6. Kubo and the Two Strings: $6.5 million ($91 million) 

When the Bough Breaks: $5.5 million ($24 million) 

1. Pete's Dragon: $5 million ($89 million) 
2. The Light Between Oceans: $4.5 million ($32 million)
3. Ben-Hur: $3 million ($68 million) 

9/23-9/25

1. The Magnificent Seven: $65.5 million 
2. Storks: $45.5 million
3. Sully: $11 million ($71 million) 
4. Bridget Jones' Baby: $9.5 million ($29 million) 
5. Blair Witch: $9 million ($49 million) 
6. Hillsong - Let Hope Rise: $6 million ($17 million) 
7. Snowden: $3 million ($12 million) 
8. Pete's Dragon: $2.5 million ($92 million) 
9. Kubo and the Two Strings: $2.5 million ($94 million) 
10. The Light Between Oceans: $2.5 million ($36 million) 

9/30-10/2

1. The Magnificent Seven: $38.5 million ($122 million)
2. Storks: $27 million ($81 million) 
3. Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children: $23 million
4. Deepwater Horizon: $17 million 
5. Masterminds: $8 million 
6. Sully: $7 million ($81 million) 
7. Bridget Jones' Baby: $6.5 million ($39 million) 
8. Blair Witch: $4 million ($55 million) 
9. Hillsong - Let Hope Rise: $3 million ($21 million) 
10. Snowden: $1.75 million ($14 million) 

10/7-10/9

1. The Magnificent Seven: $25 million ($159 million) 
2. The Girl on the Train: $23 million 
3. Storks: $21 million ($107 million) 
4. Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children: $14 million ($42 million) 
5. Deepwater Horizon: $10.5 million ($33 million) 
6. Middle School - The Worst Years of My Life: $8.5 million 
7. Birth of a Nation: $6.5 million
8. Sully: $5 million ($88 million) 
9. Bridget Jones' Baby: $4.5 million ($46 million) 
10. Friend Request: $4 million 

10/14-10/16

1. The Accountant: $31 million 
2. The Magnificent Seven: $18 million ($190 million) 
3. Storks: $16 million ($129 million) 
4. The Girl on the Train: $14 million ($46 million) 
5. Kevin Hart - What Now?: $13.5 million 
6. Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children: $9 million ($57 million) 
7. Deepwater Horizon: $7.5 million ($46 million) 
8. Middle School - The Worst Years of My Life: $4.5 million ($15 million) 
9. Sully: $4 million ($95 million) 
10. Birth of a Nation: $4 million ($12 million) 

10/21-10/23

1. A Monster Calls: $25.5 million 
2. Boo! A Madea Halloween: $22 million 
3. The Accountant: $17 million ($57 million) 
4. Jack Reacher - Never Go Back: $15 million 
5. Ouija - Origin of Evil: $12.5 million 
6. Storks: $9 million ($140 million) 
7. The Magnificent Seven: $8 million ($202 million) 
8. The Girl on the Train: $6 million ($55 million) 
9. Keeping Up With the Joneses: $6 million 
10. I'm Not Ashamed: $5 million 

10/28-10/30

1. Inferno: $34 million 
2. Rings: $27 million 
3. A Monster Calls: $18.5 million ($50 million) 
4. The Accountant: $13 million ($76 million) 
5. Boo! A Madea Halloween: $10 million ($37 million) 
6. Jack Reacher - Never Go Back: $9 million ($29 million) 
7. Storks: $7 million ($149 million) 
8. The Magnificent Seven: $5 million ($209 million) 
9. Ouija - Origin of Evil: $4 million ($19 million) 
10. The Girl on the Train: $4 million ($61 million) 

11/4-11/6

1. Doctor Strange: $73 million
2. Trolls: $36.5 million 
3. Hacksaw Ridge: $21.5 million 
4. Inferno: $16 million ($58 million) 
5. The Accountant: $10 million ($91 million) 
6. A Monster Calls: $9.5 million ($64 million) 
7. Rings: $8 million ($41 million) 
8. Jack Reacher - Never Go Back: $6.5 million ($39 million) 
9. Boo! A Madea Halloween: $3 million ($42 million) 
10. The Magnificent Seven: $2.5 million ($213 million) 

11/11-11/13

1. Doctor Strange: $37 million ($127 million) 
2. Trolls: $28 million ($71 million) 
3. Hacksaw Ridge: $20 million ($48 million) 
4. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk: $16 million
5. Almost Christmas: $14.5 million 
6. Arrival: $14 million 
7. Inferno: $9 million ($71 million) 
8. The Accountant: $8 million ($103 million) 
9. A Monster Calls: $6 million ($72 million) 
10. Shut In: $4 million 

11/18-11/20

1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $109 million
2. Trolls: $16 million ($91 million) 
3. Doctor Strange: $15 million ($151 million) 
4. Hacksaw Ridge: $12 million ($65 million) 
5. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk: $10 million ($31 million)
6. Arrival: $8 million ($26 million) 
7. Almost Christmas: $7 million ($25 million) 
8. The Accountant: $6 million ($112 million)
9. Inferno: $4 million ($77 million) 
10. The Edge of Seventeen: $3.5 million

11/23-11/27

1. Moana: $90.5 million/$135 million 
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $54 million/$83 million ($212 million)
3. Bad Santa 2: $13.5 million/$20.5 million 
4. Trolls: $13 million/$19.5 million ($114 million) 
5. Allied: $12 million/$18 million 
6. Doctor Strange: $11.5 million/$16 million ($170 million) 
7. Hacksaw Ridge: $9 million/$12.5 million ($80 million) 
8. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk: $7 million/$10 million ($43 million) 
9. Rules Don't Apply: $6 million/$9 million 
10. Arrival: $5.5 million/$7.5 million ($35 million) 
11. The Accountant: $5 million/$7 million ($120 million) 
12. Almost Christmas: $4 million/$5.5 million ($32 million) 

12/2-12/4

1. Moana: $42 million ($190 million)
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $21 million ($243 million)
3. Bad Santa 2: $9.5 million ($35 million) 
4. Keep Watching: $9 million 
5. Allied: $7 million ($28 million) 
6. Kidnap: $6 million 
7. Doctor Strange: $5.5 million ($178 million) 
8. Trolls: $5 million ($120 million) 
9. Hacksaw Ridge: $4.5 million ($87 million) 
10. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk: $4 million ($49 million)

12/9-12/11

1. Moana: $34 million ($234 million) 
2. Office Christmas Party: $17 million 
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $13 million ($262 million) 
4. Bad Santa 2: $7 million ($46 million) 
5. The Bye Bye Man: $6 million 
6. Miss Sloane: $4.5 million 
7. Allied: $5.5 million ($36 million) 
8. Trolls: $4 million ($125 million) 
9. Doctor Strange: $4 million ($184 million)
10. Hacksaw Ridge: $3.5 million ($92 million) 

12/16-12/18

1. Rogue One: $127 million 
2. Moana: $23 million ($264 million)
3. La La Land: $14 million ($19 million) 
4. Collateral Beauty: $11.5 million 
5. Office Christmas Party: $11 million ($33 million) 
6. Bad Santa 2: $6 million ($55 million) 
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $5.5 million ($270 million) 
8. Allied: $3 million ($40 million) 
9. The Bye Bye Man: $2.5 million ($10 million) 
10. Hacksaw Ridge: $2.5 million ($96 million) 

12/21-12/25

1. Rogue One: $76 million/$110 million ($279 million) 
2. Sing: $58 million/$85 million 
3. Passengers: $42 million/$60 million 
4. Assassin's Creed: $24 million/$39 million 
5. Moana: $20.5 million/$29 million ($305 million) 
6. La La Land: $15.5 million/$21.5 million ($49 million) 
7. Office Christmas Party: $10 million/$15 million ($53 million) 
8. Collateral Beauty: $7.5 million/$11 million ($26 million) 
9. Bad Santa 2: $7 million/$10.5 million ($69 million)
10. Why Him?: $5 million 

12/30-1/1

1. Rogue One: $52 million ($391 million)
2. Sing: $47 million ($190 million) 
3. Passengers: $36 million ($138 million) 
4. Moana: $18 million ($343 million) 
5. La La Land: $13.5 million ($76 million) 
6. Assassin's Creed: $13 million ($65 million) 
7. Why Him?: $9 million ($23 million) 
8. Gold: $6 million ($14 million) 
9. Collateral Beauty: $5 million ($36 million) 
10. Office Christmas Party: $4 million ($61 million) 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 18, 2016 by mahnamahna

[boxofficeth]

2 hours ago, mahnamahna said:

8/19-8/21

1. Ben-Hur: $22.5 million 
2. Kubo and the Two Strings: $22 million 
3. Suicide Squad: $21 million ($261 million) 
4. Sausage Party: $17 million ($63 million)
5. Pete's Dragon: $13 million ($40 million)
6. War Dogs: $10 million 
7. Bad Moms: $9 million ($87 million) 
8. Jason Bourne: $8.5 million ($142 million)
9. The Secret Life of Pets: $6 million ($343 million)
10. Florence Foster Jenkins: $5 million ($13 million)

8/26-8/28

1. Kubo and the Two Strings: $16.5 million ($44 million)
2. Don't Breathe: $13.5 million 
3. Ben-Hur: $12.5 million ($41 million) 
4. Pete's Dragon: $11.5 million ($55 million) 
5. Suicide Squad: $11 million ($278 million) 
6. Sausage Party: $10 million ($79 million) 
7. Bad Moms: $7.5 million ($98 million) 
8. Mechanic - Resurrection: $7 million 
9. War Dogs: $6.5 million ($20 million) 
10. Hands of Stone: $5.5 million 

9/2-9/5

1. Kubo and the Two Strings: $18 million/$26 million ($74 million) 
2. The Light Between Oceans: $13 million/$17.5 million 
3. Pete's Dragon: $12.5 million/$18 million ($76 million) 
4. Morgan: $11 million/$14 million 
5. Ben-Hur: $9.5 million/$12.5 million ($58 million) 
6. Don't Breathe: $8 million/$10 million ($27 million) 
7. Sausage Party: $7.5 million/$9.5 million ($92 million) 
8. Suicide Squad: $7 million/$9.5 million ($291 million) 
9. Bad Moms: $6.5 million/$8 million ($109 million) 
10. War Dogs: $5.5 million/$6.5 million ($29 million)

Ben Hur prediction has gone up significantly! I doubt if Kubo will hit that high note.

[Morieris]

Well I guess when initials predictions for your 100$ million dollar blockbusters' opening were between 10 and 15 million, there's nowhere to go but up.

 

& that would be Laika's highest opening ever - I hope it can make it!...or at least 18$ mil.

[mahnamahna]

35 minutes ago, boxofficeth said:

Ben Hur prediction has gone up significantly! I doubt if Kubo will hit that high note.

I think Pete's Dragon opened soft enough for Kubo to be able to open to low 20s. 

 

I see both having tremendous legs due to glowing WOM and soft OWs. $90-105 million DOM is my guess for both, but it could easily be $65-80 million DOM, too. 

 

Ben-Hur should benefit from SS not having great WOM (but not 'toxic' WOM, either) and clearly being frontloaded (on top of not sharing the same tentpole demo). $65-70 million DOM should happen IMO. 

 

 

Edited August 14, 2016 by mahnamahna