Avengers: Age of Ultron OS Thread | $945.7M OS | $1.405B WW

[keysersoze123]

25/30M from Japan is quite optimistic. Ultron

a) feels uneventful

b ) is a sh film

c) is not animated

d) seems to be average

e) doesn't have the support of 3d

f) has to deal with a crappy exchange rate

 

I'm thinking 2 billion Yen, which translates to mid-high teens in dollars.

 

I agree. I am thinking 20m max.

[Rsyu]

Anyone care to make a guess as to why hollywood films do so badly in Japan compared to even just a few years ago? It seems only a select few genres can post any decent numbers there now.

[keysersoze123]

Anyone care to make a guess as to why hollywood films do so badly in Japan compared to even just a few years ago? It seems only a select few genres can post any decent numbers there now.

 

I think Corpse did give an answer. Let me search KJ and get back. I think the core audience demo seem to prefer animation or female based movies. Also they have their own SH/Manga series. 3D has died in Japan(worse than domestic). So that takes away charm from hollywood uber blockbusters. I think share for Japanese movies is growing yearly.

[Rsyu]

I think Corpse did give an answer. Let me search KJ and get back. I think the core audience demo seem to prefer animation or female based movies. Also they have their own SH/Manga series. 3D has died in Japan(worse than domestic). So that takes away charm from hollywood uber blockbusters. I think share for Japanese movies is growing yearly.

3D has died a lot in Korea too compared to it's peak but doesn't mean hollywood films do bad here, they're stronger than ever. I get that Japan are shifting to that general direction, what I'm wondering is what caused it? It seems to be a recent trend. Would be very interested to hear Corpse's take on this.

[Olive]

I wish 3D would die in China too, but the bastards just release every big movie in 3D, even some local rom-coms are 3D. 

[keysersoze123]

Sadly free market does not come into play. Otherwise it would be decided by consumer's choice.

 

rom-com's in 3d sounds like a horror.

[IndustriousAngel]

There's no possibility anywhere near me to watch A2 in 2D (nor MM4 btw) ... shame really, and I do not understand the reasoning behind this?! I Mean, theaters do NOT get much of the extra charge, which covers licence fees, glasses and so on. Theaters, however, WOULD get most of what they take in by concession, which they don't, because we simply don't watch converted "3D" movies.

(The same goes for genuine 3D - while I DO watch those now and then, the number of rewatches is much lower than with 2D. Again, it's the theater's loss.)

[POTUS 2020]

25/30M from Japan is quite optimistic. Ultron

a) feels uneventful

b ) is a sh film

c) is not animated

d) seems to be average

e) doesn't have the support of 3d

f) has to deal with a crappy exchange rate

 

I'm thinking 2 billion Yen, which translates to mid-high teens in dollars.

Many markets were up in admissions some down 10% or more.

I just assumed it would be flat to down 20% in admissions with the way japan is

So you think it will be down 33%+?

Thatll kill its chances of 1B OS even china holds well.

puts sub 1.4B ww in play if china doesnt hold well

 

Hows the digestion and the Chilean music buddy?

[keysersoze123]

I think Avengers at today's ER will be below 30m. Plus 3d ratio will be down a lot and that will reduce 3-4m. Then admission drop because the 1st film opened close to Obon and got a boost. This one is releasing well before obon and so no boost.

[POTUS 2020]

I think Corpse did give an answer. Let me search KJ and get back. I think the core audience demo seem to prefer animation or female based movies. Also they have their own SH/Manga series. 3D has died in Japan(worse than domestic). So that takes away charm from hollywood uber blockbusters. I think share for Japanese movies is growing yearly.

I remember him saying a majority of adult movie goers are females hence the female based movies.

Aging population, less kids born the last 10 20 years.

They do prefer their own series of movies. many with more installment than bond.

Looks like were going that way too. there will be star wars 20, FF44, TA w BM n SM fight in tights 15 down the road

Admissions have leveled off here and will go down once the SH hype is over and people are sequeled out

No idea whats next

[POTUS 2020]

I think Avengers at today's ER will be below 30m. Plus 3d ratio will be down a lot and that will reduce 3-4m. Then admission drop because the 1st film opened close to Obon and got a boost. This one is releasing well before obon and so no boost.

it was about 80 yen to a dollar now it close to 120. 45=30

 

Edit: looked it up

was 79.4 to the dollar the day after it opened. did more than 1/2 of the 45.256m in the first 9 days(obon) at that rate 

current rate is 119.68.

30.024M in todays dollars

at least down to 27m when you back out 3d loss

 

Omnis right, sub 20m

and

With Chinas Monday looking to get beat down to 48-50m yen its looking to the bottom of the $250m -275m range

That puts 1,4b back in question now

Edited May 18, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[Hernan Gonzalez]

Pretty good hold all over Latin America, between 33% and 45%, it depends on the market. And it fell just 38% in Brazil. Palomito will post Mexico in the Mexican thread as soon as canacine gives the numbers

[Fake]

Over 50% drop yet again after that shitty drop last weekend. Should be able to cross 1.4B mark, but barely.

FLOP!!

[Hernan Gonzalez]

AoU was so underestimated last weekend

"In total from 91 territories, Ultronadded a better than estimated$191.4M (up from $185M) internationally to raise its offshore tally to $775.9M and a global cume of $1.147.9B, making it the 8th highest-grossing film of all time."

[Omni]

Many markets were up in admissions some down 10% or more.

I just assumed it would be flat to down 20% in admissions with the way japan is

So you think it will be down 33%+?

Thatll kill its chances of 1B OS even china holds well.

puts sub 1.4B ww in play if china doesnt hold well

 

Hows the digestion and the Chilean music buddy?

In 2011, the only non-HP/Pirates blockbuster that made over 3B Yen is Transformers  (4.3B), but that was the year after the start of the 3D craze. In 2012, Avengers made 3.6B and had everything going for it (3D still strong, strong reviews, aurea of phenomenon surrounding it, very good release date,...). In 2013 there were Les Miserables (completely different movie, from genre to audience) and Ted, which was a huge surprise. Iron Man 3 only made 2.6B and Skyfall 2.8B. After them, what's left? Spider Man 2 collected 3.1B, F&F7 will finish around there. Now, all things considered (reviews and general consensus, 3D decline, frontloadness,,,), I'm pretty sure Ultron is much more comparable to Iron Man 3 than it is to its predecessor. IM3 wasn't very well received (while IM3 had Avengers as its ideal predecessor), blockbusters in general (especially the uneventful ones with lack of strong female appeal) are increasingly struggling to make decently strong numbers (=3B+) and 3D is even weaker now, those 2.6B Yen scraped together by the Tony Stark solo do seem like the ceiling for A2. 2.6B was worth around 30M back in 2013, but now it just equals to 20M or so, and that's it. Therefore, it's logical to expect a sub-20M dollars Japan gross for Ultron.

 

They're both fine Digestion troubles ended after the announcement of the early dvd release of Frozen in Japan They'll probably reappear when the 3rd Dull Fu Panda film makes half a billion in China.

[Quigley]

GIGANTIC SIGH OF RELIEF: Age of Utron grossed $191.4M during the weekend with $154.1M coming from China. Although the China number is slightly below estimates, the numbers show that grosses from the rest of the world amount to $37.3M, a reduction of 45% from last weekend's grosses. This percentage is WAY BETTER than 57% reduction that estimates suggested. Smaller decreases must be seen in order for the non-China non-Japan OS total to reach $700M but these numbers show that at least there is chance that this can happen (unlike the estimates which suggested that there was no such possibility).

Edited May 18, 2015 by Quigley

[keysersoze123]

This makes better sense.

[Fake]

So the full week in non-China OS markets was 775.9-154.1-562= 59.8M. We could see another 70M from these markets.

China will add another $100M. Japan maybe 25M. So around 970M finish OS.

[POTUS 2020]

China 88m more from sunday (m-t not good)

Japan 18m

OS-CJ 69m

Dom 73m

 

OS 950

dom 445

WW 1.395b

[edroger3]