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Weekend Numbers THG: 123, BH6 20.1, IS 15.1 pg 205

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It won't do just 40m on Sat. Subtract the previews from Fri and you should be pretty close.

 

I was giving it Catching Fire's drop, a 40.8m saturday is technically possible for Mockingjay because it's been done in the franchise before but really I see something more like

 

Fri: 55m

Sat: 37.4m

Sun: 24.3m

Wknd: 116.7m

A slightly lower multiplier of 2.54x due to lackluster WoM

DOM: 296.42m

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I was giving it Catching Fire's drop, a 40.8m saturday is technically possible for Mockingjay because it's been done in the franchise before but really I see something more like

 

Fri: 55m

Sat: 37.4m

Sun: 24.3m

Wknd: 116.7m

A slightly lower multiplier of 2.54x due to lackluster WoM

DOM: 296.42m

 

Seriously? It's like you are new to this. The Fri breakdown is important!

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Seriously? It's like you are new to this. The Fri breakdown is important!

 

Catching Fire dropped 24% from its Friday plus previews, my personal prediction was that it'll drop around 32% from Friday, I don't see how that's unreasonable.

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i have an idea.. why doesn't everyone just wait for thanksgiving numbers or at least weekend numbers until proclaiming sub-300m totals... lol...

 

tumblr_inline_ne1a93bZkv1qc7g7w.gif

 

What's the fun in that? Half the fun is watching some of these extreme predictions crash and burn.

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Didn't we all know deep inside that the HG franchise peaked at Catching Fire?

 

Yes or maybe but the surprise is the size of the drop.

And MJ2 could have a big rebound since the action set pieces will be the biggest of the franchise, the last movie will be the most blockbustery of all 4. And you always have a postitive rebound in parts 2. The question is how big it will be.

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It's easier/better to strip out previews and base your percentages on Friday alone.

 

Optimistically:

17M Previews

38M Friday

45M Saturday (+20%)

32M Sunday (-30%)

 

132M OW in the optimistic scenario.

 

Worst Case:

17M Previews

38M Friday

38M Saturday

25M Sunday

 

118M OW.

Edited by grim22
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