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SPECTRE OS Thread | 80.4m OW | 80.4m OS Total | 6 Markets only - 63.8m from UK alone! Record Breaking | expands to 57 markets next week

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MrFanaticGuy34    1,590
2 minutes ago, FilmBuff said:

900 mil is dead.

 

900M isn't dead yet.......it's obviously hater-talk.

 

And i have said this before....(even though not many people listens).....just because you hate a movie.....doesn't mean that you wishfully want it to make less because of it.

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MattW    1,028
On 11/8/2015, 1:58:40, IMojammer said:

Skyfall's first two weekends it opened everywhere except Australia, china and the US: 

Oct 28: $80m 
Nov 4: $287m 
Nov 11: $518m (Dom OW) 
Nov 18: $668m 
Nov 25: $792m (Aus added) 
Dec 2: $868m 
Dec 9: $918m 
Dec 16: $950m 
Dec 23: $974m 
Dec 30: $1000m 

Spectre 
Nov 1: $80m 
Nov 8: $289m

Nov 15: $543.8m

Nov 22: $677.8m
 

My rough guess

 

Nov 29: $760m

Dec 6: $805m (japan shows up)

Dec 13: $830m

Dec 20: $845m

Dec 27: $860m

Jan 3: $875m

Jan 10: $885m

 

To me it looks like 900 is uncertain.  Depends on how big of a bite Star Wars takes out of it.

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Fake    2,905

Out of the $65.7, $17m comes from China+India...... they will add another $15-18m.

 

So rest of the markets did $48.7m weekend....... I'd guess another 100-110m from there.

 

Japan may add another 20-25m.

 

So it should finish around 670m OS or so. 700m OS looks difficult unless it develops some crazy legs.

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Juby    257

Agree. $670-680 mln OS is the target. Maybe $690 mln.

 

$900 mln WW is dead with its domestic underperforming (probably only $185 mln).

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Ash Skywalker    3,742
On 11/6/2015, 3:21:55, Ash said:

No matter what but SPECTRE will do gangbuster numbers here in India. It does have a competition(mockingjay part 2) but it's not much of a threat. 
Expecting a 30-32 Cr weekend ($4.5-$5m)

SPECTRE did 31.9 cr in INDIA 1st weekend it's about as expected. 

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vignette123    12
6 hours ago, Juby said:

Agree. $670-680 mln OS is the target. Maybe $690 mln.

 

$900 mln WW is dead with its domestic underperforming (probably only $185 mln).

Obviously you have NO  idea of what you're talking about. With the current domestic of $153 Mill and with Thanksgiving this week, are saying that the BO will generate an additional 30 Mill plus from here? Here's a toast to Mr. Clueless ---

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Fake    2,905

Spectre daily breakdown:

 

Thur (previews): 3.1 Cr

Fri: 8.3 Cr

Sat: 9.9 Cr

Sun: 10.6 Cr

 

Total: 31.9 Cr ($4.8m)

 

Monday had a big drop, slightly less than 4 Cr. It will probably finish with the same amount as Skyfall ($11m).

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Quigley    1,284

Spectre had yet another drop of (much) more than 50% (1 - 30.4 / 65.3 = 53.4%). Its worldwide weekend (including NA) was $43.2M. It looks like it can muster an additional $70M (43.2 * 1.3 / 0.5 - 43.2 = 69.12) worldwide from existing markets (including NA). Japan is the only market left to open and I doubt it can make more than $30M there. After all, Skyfall made $32M there when the exchange rate was way better. By and large, Spectre cannot make more than $100M at the worldwide box office, meaning it won't even surpass Inside Out ($851.5M) or $850M. Please let me know if you notice any significant flaw in the above argument.

 

1.3 is the average ratio of weekly-to-weekend grosses

0.5 is the average weekend % drop from now on

Both are predictions based on prior data and upcoming competition

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Juby    257

+ $41-45 mln from current markets + $20-25 mln from Japan = max. $640-645 mln OS, and maybe $840 mln WW. :P

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vignette123    12
14 hours ago, Juby said:

+ $41-45 mln from current markets + $20-25 mln from Japan = max. $640-645 mln OS, and maybe $840 mln WW. :P

Think hard and give us another update in 30 minutes. Wait, that won't work..

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vignette123    12
On 11/29/2015, 11:22:00, quigquag33 said:

Spectre had yet another drop of (much) more than 50% (1 - 30.4 / 65.3 = 53.4%). Its worldwide weekend (including NA) was $43.2M. It looks like it can muster an additional $70M (43.2 * 1.3 / 0.5 - 43.2 = 69.12) worldwide from existing markets (including NA). Japan is the only market left to open and I doubt it can make more than $30M there. After all, Skyfall made $32M there when the exchange rate was way better. By and large, Spectre cannot make more than $100M at the worldwide box office, meaning it won't even surpass Inside Out ($851.5M) or $850M. Please let me know if you notice any significant flaw in the above argument.

 

1.3 is the average ratio of weekly-to-weekend grosses

0.5 is the average weekend % drop from now on

Both are predictions based on prior data and upcoming competition

Approx 40 Mill from the US and 100 Mill plus from the rest of the world. I'd still wager that this will end up over 900 Mill.

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Quigley    1,284
10 hours ago, vignette123 said:

Approx 40 Mill from the US and 100 Mill plus from the rest of the world. I'd still wager that this will end up over 900 Mill.

That doesn't really help cuz u're not explaining how u got those numbers.

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vignette123    12
4 hours ago, quigquag33 said:

That doesn't really help cuz u're not explaining how u got those numbers.

After the thanksgiving weekend of 2012, Skyfall did just over 60 Mill till the end of its run. QoS did 26 Mill in the same timeframe, and its legs were much weaker already. I'm expecting Spectre to settle somewhere in between these 2 numbers.

 

With regards to Intl, UK should generate another 10 Mill. Japan maybe 20 Mill and throw in around 75 Mill in the rest of the markets till the end of it's run in 2016. That's my rationale for the 900 Mill figure. The biggest ? is how much Star Wars would affect this once it is out in a couple of weeks' time and I expect a significant impact and that unknown is what may tip the scales against SP.

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MrFanaticGuy34    1,590

Well, no one's explaining why people here, right now, suddenly want this film to make lower than expected, after being letdown by it.....which i don't think works. It's mostly that this film gets a lot more haters than lovers.

 

If the film finishes at the WW-gross we'll get in later weeks....then we can say that it finished it's run.

 

And for the next Bond-film.....don't get too disappointed if it isn't as what you expect. We usually go in with overinflated expectations and then sometimes, somehow a movie can easily disappoint people. If you don't want to be letdown....keep your expectations lower next time. Not every blockbuster can be perfect.

Edited by MrFanaticGuy34
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TalismanRing    23,367
3 hours ago, vignette123 said:

After the thanksgiving weekend of 2012, Skyfall did just over 60 Mill till the end of its run. QoS did 26 Mill in the same timeframe, and its legs were much weaker already. I'm expecting Spectre to settle somewhere in between these 2 numbers.

 

With regards to Intl, UK should generate another 10 Mill. Japan maybe 20 Mill and throw in around 75 Mill in the rest of the markets till the end of it's run in 2016. That's my rationale for the 900 Mill figure. The biggest ? is how much Star Wars would affect this once it is out in a couple of weeks' time and I expect a significant impact and that unknown is what may tip the scales against SP.

 

O/S did $30m last w/e.  To expect $85m off of that would be to give it far better legs than it's so far had with SW coming in 2 weeks.  I think $60m + $20m in Japan is a reasonable target for around $655m O/S

 

Domestically, I'd estimate $25-30m more for a $200-205m total. 

 

The w/es with Skyfall and QOS don't line up well for comparisons since their 4th w/es were a week after Thanksgiving after an already 53%-64% drop that Spectre hasn't had yet.

 

QOS's 4th w/e  (12/7) did $6.7m for a $151.6m total.  It made $16.8m more

 

Skyfall's 6th w/e (12/16) did $6.5m for a $271.9m total.  It made $33m more with a combination of great holds and being more than week closer to the lucrative Christmas Holidays. 

 

Spectre's 5th (12/6) weekend will be around $5.5m-6m (for a total about $184m).  It needs to do 20% better than QOS off a 15-20% smaller w.e in the face of Star Wars to make $20m more after next w/e.

 

So, $30m more from now is on the high end.

 

My WW estimate: $855-60m

 

 

Edited by TalismanRing
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