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Leyla

SPECTRE OS Thread | 80.4m OW | 80.4m OS Total | 6 Markets only - 63.8m from UK alone! Record Breaking | expands to 57 markets next week

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This club will be closed by the mods. More than 6 months to go for the release.

here's the message regarding the 6 months rule for creating threads I got from Shawn last year

 

 

Hey Tauriel,

 

That rule only applies to clubs and "over/under" threads. Topics specifically created for overseas, domestic, and/or worldwide discussion are perfectly fine to open at any time (as long as there isn't one already!).  :)

 

Best,

Shawn

 

 

so i guess it was OK to create this

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here's the message regarding the 6 months rule for creating threads I got from Shawn last year

 

 
 

 

 

so i guess it was OK to create this

 

That makes more sense. I never understood the 6 month rule since there are threads in the domestic forum that are several years out and it's not like the international forum is crowded or anything. 

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lol at these rules...this is what 'another' rule says:

 

We have come to the conclusion that these are the best set of rules regarding when threads can be made, I believe they offer enough time for discussion and removes forum congestion.1. Tentpole franchise film releases (Essentially sequels to proven films with strong OS BO performances may have a discussion thread/club within 6 months of release... For Example: The Hobbit, Fast Six may have a thread 6 months from release but a film like Pacific Rim is not allowed to have a thread before 3 months)2. All other films should only have a discussion thread/club within 3 months of release date3. If you a not sure which of the above two categories a film qualifies in please ask me and I will make a ruling case-by-case. 

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MODERATION: Please use this thread

 

Why did you lock the newer Spectre OS thread? It is within 6 months of release, assuming this thread was created in September, which is more than 6 months.

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Here's roughly how I see it:

 

1R2ZMRc.png

 

This is the first time I've broken it down this much so excuse any major misteps.

 

Eur+Jap+Austr could be called the mature markets, including new zealand and most of the big western european countries.  I see a small drop in attendance plus the exchange rate bringing this group down.

 

SK+Ru+Br+Mx are solid growth markets but the exchange rate will mute that somewhat from Skyfall.

 

China about double.  UK affected by exchange rate and attendance drop.

 

Rest includes some growth markets but also some exchange rate trouble.

 

Domestic should probably more or less be equal to Casino Royale (but with more large screens, thus higher than the adjusted 206).

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I'm still confident that China can make up for shortfalls & drops elsewhere to get this to $1b WW.

 

UK alone should be around £70m / $110m (edging out Jurassic World for no. 1 this year). Possibly more - the hype already seems through the roof here.

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There are some people who thinks Spectre could have that "Hobbit 2" drop DOM from the predecessor.

Reasonable..yeah. Could happen....but I dunno, Skyfall was more beloved than Hobbit 1.

Hobbit 2 dropped to $258M DOM from the $303M from Hobbit 1.

Skyfall made $304M DOM. And if Spectre has a small & respectable drop....then it would total to....$265-280M DOM.

WW-wise is another story. Unlike Hobbit 2, though....I think Spectre could hit the $1B-mark, again. Even Hobbit 2 managed to get near $960M WW.

 

 

But i don't think it have that much of a drop, because...drops are obligational. <_< As if.

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