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Hernan Gonzalez

Minions OS Thread | 1 BILLION WW CROSSED!! | 6m weekend | $811.4m OS total

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These projections are based on the weekly drops and trends in each market - I went very conservative with China (upcoming market) as a worst case scenario to make the projections realistic as possible.

Would love your feedback on the list below especially from those closely following OS grosses and/or specific markets.

Great job overall, but if you want a realistic projection, then you need to say how much you think it will make. You gave a ridiculously low number for China, when you do that you make your projection unrealistically low.

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Global box office report:

MINIONS
In 60 offshore territories, Kyle Balda and Pierre Coffin’s Minions has now grossed $497.8M, bringing the global total to $759.4M. This frame was worth $44M overseas with highlights that include Peru‘s $1.9M opening at 85 dates; 72% bigger thanDespicable Me 2 and the 2nd best animated opening weekend of all time behind Ice Age 4Portugal opened No. 1 with $1.2M at 70 dates and set the record as the biggest debut frame ever for an animated film. Holds are firm including No. 1 positions in France and Venezuela for the 3rd session in a row. What’s more,GermanyAustriaArgentina and Chile have kept Minions at No. 1 for four consecutive frames. This juggernaut has seven more territories to take over including Korea, Japan, Italy and China (the latter just dated for September 13).

Edited by MinaTakla
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Minions had 411 actuals last sunday so 88m in this week, 44 in weekdays and 44 in weekend. Is a 33% drop (from lw 66) including 4 new markets (71 vs 67) and roughly 40% for the holdovers, significantly better than in USA. This could help the yellows to eventually reach 750 OS ( 500+110 from holdovers + 100 China + 40 Italy-Jap-SK and other minor) and added to a 320 DOM, to pass TS3 as the biggest animated ever among those don't have two sisters as main characters.

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What a shame if this movie passes TS3. I don't mind it sitting behind it even though much better films would be behind it, but to pass TS3 on the all time list would be a shame. Oh well, Avatar is number 1 live action so what can you expect?

I wish someone could explain to me the difference between foreign audience and the US. It had a huge opening here but has had huge falls quickly due to poor word of mouth and poor critical reception.

OS, it has opened huge everywhere and audiences seem to love it and it has nice runs with good legs. Obviously the rest of the world is much more satisfied with this effort than we are here in the US. My wife and I were very bored and this has been the opinion of most of our friends except the ones who didn't see it with their kids because they heard it wasn't good. Yet people,here rave about Inside Out while it doesn't seem to be very well liked OS. I'm usually pretty astute but this difference in taste puzzles me. Any answers???

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I think that non-U.S. audiences just love broad slapstick comedy more than U.S. audiences to these days, at least in their animated family films. I don't think this says anything negative about their tastes or intelligence, stuff like Minions just translates better and resonates more than what Pixar does.

A reminder: There have only been four instances where a Pixar movie was the highest-grossing family animated feature of the year in the OS market - A Bug's Life in 1998, Monsters Inc. in 2001, Finding Nemo in 2003 and Toy Story 3 in 2010. In all other years where Pixar released something, no matter how well it performed domestically, the top animated feature OS was either WDAS (Pocahontas, Tarzan, Frozen), Dreamworks (Shrek 2+3, Madagascar 2, Kung Fu Panda 2), Blue Sky (Ice Age 2/3/4) or Illumination (Minions), with four of the last seven Pixar releases getting beaten by two competitors (Madagascar 2+KFP1 in 2008, KFP2+Puss in Boots in 2011, IA4+Madagascar 3 in 2012, Frozen+DM2 in 2013). And three of the four times they did come out on top were prior to the parallel expansions of the CG animation market and the OS market. Pixar has generally been more successful domestically.

2015 is going to end up a repeat of 2009: The top animated feature in North America will be a Pixar film that was their biggest domestic success - highest-grossing and highest-attended - in five years (Up in 2009, Inside Out in 2015), but it will lose OS by a sizable margin to a slapsticky comedy that was less well-received by domestic audiences (Ice Age 3 in 2009, Minions in 2015).

Edited by TServo2049
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I think that non-U.S. audiences just love broad slapstick comedy more than U.S. audiences to these days, at least in their animated family films. I don't think this says anything negative about their tastes or intelligence, stuff like Minions just translates better and resonates more than what Pixar does.

 

It'll be interesting how The Secret Life of Pets does OS next year because it's the first time Illumination has tough competition with Ice Age 5 and Finding Dory. 

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Minions had 411 actuals last sunday so 88m in this week, 44 in weekdays and 44 in weekend. Is a 33% drop (from lw 66) including 4 new markets (71 vs 67) and roughly 40% for the holdovers, significantly better than in USA. This could help the yellows to eventually reach 750 OS ( 500+110 from holdovers + 100 China + 40 Italy-Jap-SK and other minor) and added to a 320 DOM, to pass TS3 as the biggest animated ever among those don't have two sisters as main characters.

Agree. I will also post my updated country by country projections once the new country by country numbers for the 23-26 weekend arrives.

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Pretty good drop.

 

It probably will finish with 10-20m lower than 1B worldwide excluding China.

Am thinking it can make anywhere between 65 to 100 million in China to end up anywhere either below or above TS3's 1.058 billion

What do you think?

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Am thinking it can make anywhere between 65 to 100 million in China to end up anywhere either below or above TS3's 1.058 billion

What do you think?

Yeah, it will be close. Minions will probably finish a bit higher.

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Yeah, it will be close. Minions will probably finish a bit higher.

Agree. Am going to publish an updated country by country projections sheet once actuals come in, but right now am thinking:

Current markets: 605-610 (a bit higher due to the low drop from last week)

Upcoming markets (with Peru and Portugal which opened this week); 55-60

China: 65-100

Domestic (US): 320

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