How HV sales used to turn big box office hits into massive box office GIANTS

Mojoguy · December 31, 2015

I think TFA will be hurt in sales by those people that decide to wait until the entire sequel trilogy (episodes 7-9) is released as one big box set.

That's what I'm planning to do anyway.

I imagine this is a problem for film franchises that are released yearly or biyear like THG and The Hobbit. Why double dip for something you know is coming?

Edited December 31, 2015 by Mojoguy

terrestrial · December 31, 2015

I buy movies I can't wait to see ~ a few weeks... after the release as the cheapest available version (often used), depending what the buzz says (like xy minutes of... exists), I'll buy the version with the most extras, those that often gets released 1-2 years or so, later on.

LotR 1-3 = I bought the big box, but I do usually not wait for a movie 1-3 box, if I really liked the movie.

I'd buy it for a movie series I am curious about, but more in the meaning off: I'd like to watch that sometime.

I still don't do downloads

WrathOfHan · December 31, 2015

9 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

I think TFA will be hurt in sales by those people that decide to wait until the entire sequel trilogy (episodes 7-9) is released as one big box set.

That's what I'm planning to do anyway.

I imagine this is a problem for film franchises that are released yearly or biyear like THG and The Hobbit. Why double dip for something you know is coming?

As someone who's repetitively held out for boxsets, I'm done with that shit. If a better set comes out I'm double dipping.

langer · January 7, 2016

With Black Friday over, JW got pushed over 75M$ in Blu Ray and 100M$ combined. Chances are strong that TFA will be the next 100M$ on Blu Ray(5th to reach that milestone) as JW will most likely crawl to 90-95M$ after the Christmas push when TFA gets its release on HV. The big question is will we ever have a 200M$ blu ray movie (either Frozen or Avatar crawling to that milestone or a new movie crushing records)?

Black Friday also saw many titles (old and recent) get a significant boost. Despicable Me is now only 5M$ away from reaching 200M$ on DVD and that's before the Minions HV release boost and Christmas boost. It should not be enough to reach it this soon and this is either gonna crawl to 200M$ in 2016 or reach it when DM3 gets released in 2017.

Next week we'll have the numbers for Minions (high) and Ant Man (low).

WrathOfHan · January 7, 2016

Blu-Ray sales charts for last week: http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=18236

Top Ten Blu-ray Sellers for Week Ending 01/03/15:

Top Five Home Media Sellers for Week Ending 01/03/15 (% of Blu-ray's Market Share Noted):

Top Five Blu-ray 3D Sellers for Week Ending 01/03/15 (Per % of Total Unit Sales):

Something I find interesting is that Minions is the 3rd biggest selling Blu-Ray yet it can't crack the Top 5 3D Blus. Good share of BD/DVD for it though.

TalismanRing · January 7, 2016

53 minutes ago, langer said:

With Black Friday over, JW got pushed over 75M$ in Blu Ray and 100M$ combined. Chances are strong that TFA will be the next 100M$ on Blu Ray(5th to reach that milestone) as JW will most likely crawl to 90-95M$ after the Christmas push when TFA gets its release on HV. The big question is will we ever have a 200M$ blu ray movie (either Frozen or Avatar crawling to that milestone or a new movie crushing records)?

Black Friday also saw many titles (old and recent) get a significant boost. Despicable Me is now only 5M$ away from reaching 200M$ on DVD and that's before the Minions HV release boost and Christmas boost. It should not be enough to reach it this soon and this is either gonna crawl to 200M$ in 2016 or reach it when DM3 gets released in 2017.

Next week we'll have the numbers for Minions (high) and Ant Man (low).

And again they don't adjust for BF sale prices. The calculations for JW $s are all kinds of fucked up.

Blu Ray and DVD share will probably continue to go down industry wide as they put more and more emphasis on Digital downloads and keep increasing the window between digital and Blu Ray/DVD.

langer · January 7, 2016

36 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

And again they don't adjust for BF sale prices. The calculations for JW $s are all kinds of fucked up.

Blu Ray and DVD share will probably continue to go down industry wide as they put more and more emphasis on Digital downloads and keep increasing the window between digital and Blu Ray/DVD.

But they did receive a significant unit boost though. I understand that the $ figures might end being adjusted later on.

TalismanRing · January 7, 2016

25 minutes ago, langer said:

But they did receive a significant unit boost though. I understand that the $ figures might end being adjusted later on.

Doubtful. BF 2014 is still screwed up. So is BF 2013 and so on

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-market/bluray-sales-chart/2014/11/30

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-market/bluray-sales-chart/2013/12/01

They have yet to adjust the $ for the first week of JW or other films like Mad Max and it's already been months. These totals are 10s of millions off and will most likely stay that way.

It's not just BF that has these consistent discrepancies. It's seen with titles that are discounted for Holiday sales or just knocked down in price early.

It's by far the best resource we have but it's kind of a mess.

Edited January 7, 2016 by TalismanRing

WrathOfHan · January 23, 2016

Blu-Ray sales for last week: http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=18342

Top Ten Blu-ray Sellers for Week Ending 01/17/15:

Top Five Home Media Sellers for Week Ending 01/17/15 (% of Blu-ray's Market Share Noted):

Top Five Blu-ray 3D Sellers for Week Ending 01/17/15 (Per % of Total Unit Sales):

Fantastic Blu-Ray share for The Martian, a smidge under 60% is insane. On the other hand, basically no 3D copies are being sold.

WrathOfHan · January 29, 2016

Jan 18-24 sales: http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=18370

Top Ten Blu-ray Sellers for Week Ending 01/24/15:

Top Five Home Media Sellers for Week Ending 01/24/15 (% of Blu-ray's Market Share Noted):

Top Five Blu-ray 3D Sellers for Week Ending 01/24/15 (Per % of Total Unit Sales):

Another great market share, this time for SOC. The Martian got on the top 5 3D sellers but is still a very small portion. The Walk had a frontloaded release, it was the top 3D seller for Jan 11-17 and isn't even on the list this time.

Edited January 29, 2016 by WrathOfHan

langer · February 26, 2016

It's time to look back at some predictions/questions from last year...

On ‎1‎/‎12‎/‎2015 at 1:47 PM, langer said:

Guardians of the Galaxy should become only the 5th movie to reach 100m$ in Blu Ray sales in the coming months.

GOTG lost steam after a great start and it's numbers were also revised downward. At this point, TFA should become the 5th movie. there's no way Jurassic world will reach this anytime soon and BvS won't be able to boost TDKR to 100M

I still can't believe the pace that Frozen is going. Chances that it reaches 400M$ in combined revenues in 2015..will it reach it before Avatar?

Frozen (365M) is still popping in and out of the top 30 from time to time and has gained 7M in the last 4 months compared to 0M for Avatar (391M). Still very unlikely, but a delayed Avatar sequel could prevent it from reaching 400M before Frozen.

Anyone thinks Minions as a shot at joining DM 1& 2 in the 200M$ combined revenue club?

Minions is at 100M at the moment and should leave the top 30 with around 115-120M. DM movies are still popping in and out of the top 30 showing strong and steady sales. DM3 should boost its sales above 150M in 2017 for sure, but 200M is probably a long term goal at this point.

Will we see another Hunger Games reach 200M$ in combined revenue? Will MJ1 even reach 100M$ combined revenue in 2015?

Unlikely to the 1st question and no to the 2nd.

Will all Hobbit movies reach 100M$ in combined revenues in 2015? or will they they have to crawl there in the coming years?

The last Hobbit couldn't do it in 2015 and it may reach that milestone down the road...in a long time.

What will be the first movie to reach 200M$ in Blu Ray revenues? Avatar? Frozen? AoU? Star Wars VII? Any other contender?

Avatar (160M) and Frozen (155M) are still far away from reaching that milestone and not gaining much. AoU was a non factor on HV, while Jurassic World (86M) posted strong numbers, but not enough to even challenge the top 3. Star Wars will most likely make the top 3 (120M+), but there's no guarantee it will reach 200M although the next 5 years will have sequels to boost its HV sales. Keep in mind that the HV market is way down compared to 2012.

Knowing animation movies do very well on home video, what's gonna be the next animated movie to reach 200M$ combined (with Frozen being the last)? Minions? Big Hero 6? Inside Out? Peanuts movie? DM3?

Since Frozen, BH6 made 94M (6M in last 4 months) , Inside Out made 99M (still selling strong - top 20) and Minions made 100M (still top 3 currently). Finding Dory is also a contender I hadn't thought of. We won't get an answer to this until the end of 2016 when the 2016 blockbusters get their HV release.

langer · February 26, 2016

Looking back at 2015 blockbusters predictions...

Disclaimer : I didn't know the market was so low compared to previous years.

Comments & updates in italic

On ‎9‎/‎3‎/‎2015 at 1:11 PM, langer said:

This is the worst time for HV sales. No more blockbusters boosting old titles until the Thanksgiving movies get released and the summer blockbusters are not getting released on HV until mid September.

Titles to look forward to (300M+ grossers) :

Fast & Furious 7 : the old titles were never great on HV, but this one was bigger than the previous movies. Prediction : At least 115M$ in combined sales in its first year

Although its first year is not close to be complete, F&F 7 will not generate much more sales than the 67M it's at right now. This is just below Fast 5, but way below F&F 6 even though it was the highest grossing movie of the series. This was the first true sign that the market was plummeting. Verdict : way off.

Avengers 2 : This will obivously do less than the first one (225M$), but this should do better than IM3 and GoTG. Prediction : 135M$ in combined sales in its first year

Another sign of the plummeting market. With 69M to date, it will have a hard time just reaching IM3 (81M). Verdict : way off once again.

On ‎9‎/‎3‎/‎2015 at 1:11 PM, langer said:

Jurassic World : The breakout movie of the year. This one is hard to predict. Its legs shows good word of mouth and that should translate to good HV sales. Prediction : Should be on par with the first Avengers, so 200M$ in its first year

With 118M so far and still in the top 25, it should be able to get at least 140-150M by the end of its 1st year. A good performance, but my prediction will still be 25-30% off.

On ‎9‎/‎3‎/‎2015 at 1:11 PM, langer said:

Inside Out: Pixar movies are like clockwork on HV with a 100M$ floor everytime. This one scored better than the last entries apart from 2010's Toy Story 3. Prediction : 185M$ in its first year

Pixar movies usually have good legs on HV and this one will pass 100M soon and still going strong. This should at least get 125M in its 1st full year, but I don't see it doing more than 150M. With a sequel unlikely, this might not pass 200M before the HV market switches to full online. Verdict : I was off, but not as much as the others.

Minions : The DM franchise has shown impressive numbers on HV (DM1 265M$, DM2 235M$) . Considering that Minions grossed about the same as DM2 and that sequels HV sales are usually lower because of fatigue and boxed sets, I predict sales of 175M$ in its first year.

This will most likely be my best prediction. With Minions reaching 100M and still in the top 5, this will most likely reach over 135M by the end of 2016, seeing as the DM franchise is still doing good sales on a weekly basis. Still I would be off by 15-25%.

Special prediction : Pitch Perfect 2 is gonna reach 100M$ in combined sales in its first year.

My special prediction was a special failure. With 38M to date and out of the top 25, Pitch Perfect 2 was the opposite of the original on HV. Verdict : quit making prediction Langer, you suck!

Keep in mind that most titles generate about 85% of their sales in their first year of release. Exceptions are movies with multiple sequels (Twilight, Harry Potter, Fast & Furious, X-Men) or shared universe (MCU) and also movies where sequels are far more popular/bigger than the original (Batman begins, Twilight, Despicable Me). Some timeless/classic movies also show good legs on HV (classic Disney, The Sandlot, The Notebook...)

WrathOfHan · February 26, 2016

3 minutes ago, langer said:

this might not pass 200M before the HV market switches to full online.

When do you see this happening?

langer · February 26, 2016

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

When do you see this happening?

Fully switched? 10 years maybe. It took about 8-10 years for VHS to die after DVD first entered the market. It's been 8-9 years since Blu Ray, but it's not really the same thing. DVD has at least 5 years in the tank, Blu Ray I can see at least 10 years of significant (but declining) sales. Digital online is grabbing market shares from physical every year. At some point in 5-7 years, DVD and Blu Ray might become insignificant compared to 2007-2010.

Don't quote me on this, this is me just estimating from declining numbers. I don't know if we'll ever have digital sales numbers like we do for DVD and Blu Ray.

WrathOfHan · February 26, 2016

13 minutes ago, langer said:

Fully switched? 10 years maybe. It took about 8-10 years for VHS to die after DVD first entered the market. It's been 8-9 years since Blu Ray, but it's not really the same thing. DVD has at least 5 years in the tank, Blu Ray I can see at least 10 years of significant (but declining) sales. Digital online is grabbing market shares from physical every year. At some point in 5-7 years, DVD and Blu Ray might become insignificant compared to 2007-2010.

Don't quote me on this, this is me just estimating from declining numbers. I don't know if we'll ever have digital sales numbers like we do for DVD and Blu Ray.

We still have a long time before the switch to all digital IMO. Internet needs to be fast enough for lossless quality plus there's the whole "not actually owning it" part. Hell, CDs and Vinyl still sell strong all things considered

Edited February 26, 2016 by WrathOfHan

langer · February 27, 2016

27 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

We still have a long time before the switch to all digital IMO. Internet needs to be fast enough for lossless quality plus there's the whole "not actually owning it" part. Hell, CDs and Vinyl still sell strong all things considered

Strong vinyl and CD sales can be argued. CD sales are about 25-35% of what they were in late 90s.

The top artists in the US would sell roughly 10-12M CDs on their best albums in 1997-2000 (Just look up Britney Spears, Backstreet Boys, N`Sync, No Doubt, Garth Brooks..etc..). Nowadays, the biggest artists manage about 3-4M in sales. Significant, but definitely lower.

I agree with you that my 10 years prediction is probably too catastrophic.

edroger3 · February 27, 2016

Home Video market - Phisichal Sales - Units sold - past decade.

Year Top Seller Movies 10M+ Movies 5M+ Movies 1M+

2006 Pirates Dead Man Chest - 14,47M 4 14 100+

2007 Pirates At World End - 13,69M 6 16 100+

2008 The Dark Knight - 10,94M 1 9 93

2009 Transformers RoTF - 11,20M 3 10 89

2010 Avatar - 15,97M 2 11 87

2011 Harry Potter 7.1 - 9,89M 0 4 85

2012 The Hunger Games - 10,25M 1 8 85

2013 Desplicable Me 2 - 9,24M 0 6 73

2014 Frozen - 18,12M 1 3 60

2015 Jurassic World - 5,84M 0 4 54

Edited February 27, 2016 by edroger3

langer · February 29, 2016

On 2/27/2016 at 5:22 AM, edroger3 said:

Home Video market - Phisichal Sales - Units sold - past decade.

Year Top Seller Movies 10M+ Movies 5M+ Movies 1M+

2006 Pirates Dead Man Chest - 14,47M    4   14      100+

2007 Pirates At World End   - 13,69M 6 16 100+

2008 The Dark Knight - 10,94M   1 9 93

2009 Transformers RoTF - 11,20M 3 10 89

2010 Avatar - 15,97M 2 11 87

2011 Harry Potter 7.1 - 9,89M 0 4 85

2012 The Hunger Games - 10,25M   1 8 85

2013 Desplicable Me 2 - 9,24M    0 6    73

2014 Frozen - 18,12M    1 3 60

2015 Jurassic World - 5,84M 0 4 54

Really shows the downward trend. Nice chart.

edroger3 · February 29, 2016

8 hours ago, langer said:

Really shows the downward trend. Nice chart.

Obviously we should know how the impact of the digital sales hurts the phisical ones. I haven't detailed numbers but i know that the digital sales in recent years have always been in a slight increase, but this increase didn't offset the decline of the physical sales.

langer · February 29, 2016

2016 sequels impact on sales of franchise and reaching milestones.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 1 : 100M$ on DVD from 95M$ (unlikely but possible)

Captain America : Civil War

- Iron Man 1 : 200M$ combined from 196M$ (possible - 2017 guaranteed)

- The Avengers : 250M$ combined from 230M$ (near impossible - likely to happen in 2018-2019)

- Avengers - Age of Ultron : 50M$ Blu Ray from 46M$ (nearly guaranteed)

- Captain America - The First Avengers : 50M$ DVD from 47M$ (likely)

- Captain America - The Winter Soldier : 50M$ Blu Ray from 37M$ (unlikely)

X-Men Apocalypse

- X-Men - Days of Future Past : 50M$ Blu Ray from 49M$ (guaranteed)

- X-Men - The Last Stand : 150M$ combined from 146M$ (likely)

- X-Men - The Last Stand : 150M$ DVD from 145M$ (possible but unlikely - likely to reach with next entry)

Batman V Superman

- Man of Steel : 50M$ DVD from 42M$ (unlikely - likely to reach with Justice League release)

- The Dark Knight : 300M$ DVD from 282M$ (unlikely)

- The Dark Knight : 50M$ Blu Ray from 33M$ (unlikely - likely to reach with Justice League or new Batman entry)

- The Dark Knight Rises : 100M$ Blu Ray from 80M$ (unlikely)

Ice Age - Collision Course

- Ice Age - Continental Drift : 50M$ DVD from 43M$ (unlikely - likely to reach with 6th entry)

Star Trek Beyond

- Star Trek (2009) : 200M$ combined from 197M$ (nearly guaranteed)

- Star Trek (2009) : 100M$ Blu Ray from 82M$ (unlikely)

- Star Trek - Into Darkness : 100M$ combined from 83M$ (unlikely but possible, likely with 4th entry)

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles : Out of Shadows

- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles : 100M$ combined from 95M$ (likely)

Alice Through the Looking Glass

- Alice in Wonderland : 100M$ DVD from 83M$ (nearly impossible)

Kung Fu Panda 3

- Kung Fu Panda : 150M$ combined from 147M$ (likely)

- Kung Fu Panda : 150M$ DVD from 145M$ (unlikely)

Star Wars - Rogue One

- Star Wars - The Force Awakens : Likely to have an impact, but hard to judge what impact the spin off will generate vs first run of TFA on HV.

TFA "guaranteed" to reach 50M$ Blu Ray and 100M$ combined in 2016.

Possible 2017 Milestones

Guardians of the Galaxy : 50M$ DVD

Pirates of the Caribbean - On Stranger Tides : 100M$ combined

Cars 2 : 50M$ Blu Ray

Transformers : 300M$ DVD

Despicable Me : 300M$ combined and 200M$ DVD (might be 2016)

Despicable Me 2 : 250M$ combined (might be 2016)

Minions : 150M$ combined

The Amazing Spider Man 2 : 50M$ combined

Rise of the Planet of the Apes : 50M$ DVD

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes : 50M$ combined

Pitch Perfect : 100M$ DVD

The Croods : 50M$ DVD

Edited March 2, 2016 by langer

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