How HV sales used to turn big box office hits into massive box office GIANTS

[kowhite]

Home video sales are interesting.

Being good isn't even enough. Ultron doesn't look so impressive. Furious 7 good, but not amazing. Cinderella? That good will did not translate (,aye they shouldn't have waited 6 months).

The only thing sure fire these days are animated princesses. So it seems.

[The Futurist]

This market is dead, it s barely crumbs compared to what it used to be so that s why the Fury Road " Oh, it will do well on home video so we ll probably get a sequel "argument makes me laugh in2015.

10 years ago, we could have had this conversation, 6,7 years ago even ...

But at the beginning of the 2010's, the patient (home video market) has been put on life support.

 

Blu Ray is probably the last physical support. Ultra HD (4k) is supported by Blu-Ray so ...

[bapi]

From the 5 movies that earned more than 300M at the BO this year, F&F and Avengers will generate modest HV sales, while the two animated films and Jurassic World will rake significant $ in HV sales.  These 3 movies could all earn more than 200M$ in combined HV sales.  It's more than likely that JW wil get it,  Minions will get around 150M and Inside Out will get 175M. 

 

Don't expect Minions to reach the levels of DM1 and DM2, there's a very strong patterns in HV sales regarding sequels.  With very few exceptions,  the sequels usually don't outgross the original or the previous title.  Exceptions :  The Dark Knight,  Skyfall,  F&F 4, F&F 6, The Wolverine.

And even that is quite optimistic. From 2014 releases we have just five 100+ movies (and only three of them made it before the end of the year). Frozen obviously and then Hobbit II (102M), Lego (112M), Guardians (118M) and Catching Fire (116M). And that's from both DVD and blu.

And then compare it with what movies made from just DVD sales 10-13 years back: National Treasure (143M), Ray (119M), The Notebook (105M), Brother Bear (112M), American Wedding (104M), Lilo & Stitch (116M) etc.

[bapi]

This market is dead, it s barely crumbs compared to what it used to be so that s why the Fury Road " Oh, it will do well on home video so we ll probably get a sequel "argument makes me laugh in2015.

10 years ago, we could have had this conversation, 6,7 years ago even ...

But at the beginning of the 2010's, the patient (home video market) has been put on life support.

 

Blu Ray is probably the last physical support. Ultra HD (4k) is supported by Blu-Ray so ...

This! I'd love to see some complete comparison with Fury Road and something like xXx and National Treasure. That would be fun.

[bapi]

This is the worst time for HV sales.  No more blockbusters boosting old titles until the Thanksgiving movies get released and the summer blockbusters are not getting released on HV until mid September.   

 

Titles to look forward to (300M+ grossers) :

Fast & Furious 7 : the old titles were never great on HV, but this one was bigger than the previous movies.  Prediction : At least 115M$ in combined sales in its first year

 

 

To be fair The Fast and The Furious made 132M from DVD sales in just first 7 months, that's almost 92% of its DOM total. Then FF4 made 54%, FF5 - 33%, FF6 - 54% and your 115M prediction for FF7 would mean a bit under 33% so sequels are quite consistent.

[langer]

To be fair The Fast and The Furious made 132M from DVD sales in just first 7 months, that's almost 92% of its DOM total. Then FF4 made 54%, FF5 - 33%, FF6 - 54% and your 115M prediction for FF7 would mean a bit under 33% so sequels are quite consistent.

 

The market was very different when the original Fast & Furious movie was released 15 years ago, HV sales were a big revenue maker, not anymore, so   I wouldn't use that as a comparison.  The argument could be made that Paul Walker's death boosted F&F6 on HV and F&F 7 at the BO, but might not boost the HV of F&F 7.  We'll just have to wait and see on this, but usually sequels generate less revenue than the previous movie in their series. 

 

F&F movies are the only ones not following the trend of sequels generating less revenue on HV and can be explained by 2 reasons:

- F&F 4 increased from Tokyo Drift because the 3rd movie in the franchise was considered a spinoff at the time 

- F&F 6 increased from Fast 5 because of Paul Walker's death

 

Lastly, there is not a strong correlation between total BO and HV revenues.  Just look at Iron Man 3 and Frozen, both have similar BO gross but IM3 generated 85M in HV and Frozen generated 355M. 

 

I still stand by my original prediction. 

[langer]

And even that is quite optimistic. From 2014 releases we have just five 100+ movies (and only three of them made it before the end of the year). Frozen obviously and then Hobbit II (102M), Lego (112M), Guardians (118M) and Catching Fire (116M). And that's from both DVD and blu.

And then compare it with what movies made from just DVD sales 10-13 years back: National Treasure (143M), Ray (119M), The Notebook (105M), Brother Bear (112M), American Wedding (104M), Lilo & Stitch (116M) etc.

2014 was a poor year at the BO especially from a HV point of view :

 - No major animated movie (300M+ DOM)

 - No major original or (first in a franchise) live action movie grossing more than 400M

 

Always remember that, on average, sequels decrease on HV and that animation movies score higher than live action. 

My predictions basically match Jurassic World to the first Avengers, Inside Out to the average Pixar movie and Minions to the previous DM movies with a decrease to account for the sequel factor. 

 

Edit:  where do you get the DVD sales figure from 10-13 years ago?  I'm curious and would love to see those charts.

Edited October 7, 2015 by langer

[bapi]

2014 was a poor year at the BO especially from a HV point of view :

 - No major animated movie (300M+ DOM)

 - No major original or (first in a franchise) live action movie grossing more than 400M

 

Always remember that, on average, sequels decrease on HV and that animation movies score higher than live action. 

My predictions basically match Jurassic World to the first Avengers, Inside Out to the average Pixar movie and Minions to the previous DM movies with a decrease to account for the sequel factor. 

 

Edit:  where do you get the DVD sales figure from 10-13 years ago?  I'm curious and would love to see those charts.

Lee's Movie Info

[bapi]

The market was very different when the original Fast & Furious movie was released 15 years ago, HV sales were a big revenue maker, not anymore, so   I wouldn't use that as a comparison.  The argument could be made that Paul Walker's death boosted F&F6 on HV and F&F 7 at the BO, but might not boost the HV of F&F 7.  We'll just have to wait and see on this, but usually sequels generate less revenue than the previous movie in their series. 

 

F&F movies are the only ones not following the trend of sequels generating less revenue on HV and can be explained by 2 reasons:

- F&F 4 increased from Tokyo Drift because the 3rd movie in the franchise was considered a spinoff at the time 

- F&F 6 increased from Fast 5 because of Paul Walker's death

 

Lastly, there is not a strong correlation between total BO and HV revenues.  Just look at Iron Man 3 and Frozen, both have similar BO gross but IM3 generated 85M in HV and Frozen generated 355M. 

 

I still stand by my original prediction. 

Also 2F2F made 78M from DVD sales in '03, that's more than F5 and counts for 61% of DOM total.

 

Iron Man... Well, I think many people really, really hate IM3 plus outside of IM1 - DVD and TA1 - blu-ray Marvel movies don't really produce amazing disc sales.

[langer]

Thanks - it's not really user friendly like The-Numbers charts, but it gives us some insights to the 2000-2005 era. 

[langer]

Following up on my predictions since The Numbers updated their Blu Ray chart today.

 

 

Fast & Furious 7 : the old titles were never great on HV, but this one was bigger than the previous movies.  Prediction : At least 115M$ in combined sales in its first year

 

Special prediction : Pitch Perfect 2 is gonna reach 100M$ in combined sales in its first  year. 

 

 

I have a bad feeling about F&F 7 HV sales.  Its first week was lower than F&F6 which would put it on track to generate 70-75M$, much lower than my prediction.  The main difference with F&F 6 is that this latest entry will be available during Black Friday, a boost here could skew the numbers upward, but getting to 100M will be a challenge.

 

We have the Blu Ray numbers of Pitch Perfect 2, but we don't have the DVD numbers yet. The Blu Ray first week sales are on par with what the original did, but the main difference is that the original had very good legs on DVD.  The original was also promoted during the last two Black Fridays so I expect this one to receive a boost in late November.  It's too soon to call it, but I still feel confident that this will reach 100M in its first year. 

 

Next week we'll have the numbers for Age of Ultron, but it is a Friday release, so numbers won't compare to other entries faithfully. 

 

The big sellers (Inside Out, Jurassic World, Minions) won't come out until late October and November.

[terrestrial]

If you compare e.g. the 2014 combined list with actual numbers you'll see about some movies made more in their 2nd year than other movies did at all

 

Top-Selling Video Titles in the United States 2014

 

Rank	Title	Units Sold	Total Consumer Spending
1	Frozen	18,128,222	$334,857,040	Buy
2	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	6,241,620	$111,323,718	Buy
3	Guardians of the Galaxy	5,309,397	$95,712,733	Buy
4	The Lego Movie	4,859,897	$105,023,362	Buy
5	The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug	4,659,008	$94,931,702	Buy
6	Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles	3,634,195	$79,479,982	Buy
7	How to Train Your Dragon 2	3,633,780	$61,560,904	Buy
8	Maleficent	3,621,600	$66,328,883	Buy
9	Transformers: Age of Extinction	3,544,792	$57,250,465	Buy
10	Thor: The Dark World	3,461,327	$64,417,708	Buy
11	Despicable Me 2	3,398,015	$52,558,003	Buy
12	Gravity	2,957,841	$52,399,337	Buy
13	Captain America: The Winter Soldier	2,939,679	$52,007,945	Buy
14	Divergent	2,909,113	$50,007,479	Buy
15	Lone Survivor	2,805,266	$44,701,298	Buy
16	Rio 2	2,669,005	$50,192,032	Buy
17	X-Men Days of Future Past	2,614,399	$58,629,009	Buy
18	The Amazing Spider-Man 2	2,162,002	$44,337,541	Buy
19	Dawn of the Planet of the Apes	2,154,069	$33,204,884	Buy
20	The Fault in Our Stars	2,113,054	$38,519,609	Buy

 

Example GotG actual = $118,168,295 (~ $22.5m in 2015) = American Hustle made a total of $17,420,856 till now, 22 Jump Street $25,914,884

Example Frozen actual = $357,983,021

 

Others did IMHO ~ surprisingly small 2015 numbers, Catching Fire actual = $116,835,977, but that might increase around the next part's release

 

 

Is it action or... that helps? MCU, studio... Nope.... see CA 2 =/= GotG

 

Family, revival/sentimental/... titles,... that seems to help, all the others do not count on any 'rule' I guess

And digital sold units are not included, might too change the 'real' listing if they would be added too

 

HV released in 2014 (or earlier) holdovers in 2015, ignoring the very late in 2014 released HV titles (sold units!)

 

19

Despicable Me 2

1,255,548

$14,905,792

HV release end of 2013

25

Guardians of the Galaxy

1,159,556

$22,455,561

Buy

26

Frozen

1,113,358

$23,125,982

Buy

37

Despicable Me

829,096

$9,262,589

HV release end of 2010

39

Pitch Perfect

785,092

$8,683,368

HV release end of 2012

40

X-Men Days of Future Past

770,803

$12,338,633

Buy

44

Divergent

719,595

$8,640,376

Buy

45

Jurassic Park

710,377

$7,427,940

1993 version, HV 1997!!!

51

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

628,790

$7,722,302

Buy

52

Mary Poppins

624,320

$11,085,005

1964 version, HV 1998!!!

56

101 Dalmatians

558,761

$12,802,667

1961 version, HV 1999!!!

57

The Land Before Time

557,557

$3,167,556

1988 cinema, HV 1996!!!

58

The Wizard of Oz

548,086

$5,775,361

1939 version, HV 1997!!!

59

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

542,475

$4,354,989

2012

61

Monty Python and the Holy Grail

535,541

$4,355,261

1975 cinema, 1999 HV!!!

62

How to Train Your Dragon 2

532,225

$7,629,499

Buy

64

The Hunger Games

526,567

$4,566,348

2012

65

The Lego Movie

521,165

$7,600,091

Buy

66	The Princess Bride	511,191	$3,044,321	1987er cinema, 2000 HV !!!
67	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	509,282	$5,512,258	Buy

71

The Sandlot

482,277

$2,516,950

1993, HV 2002!!!

72

The Goonies

481,905

$2,395,891

1985 cinema, HV 2001!!!

73

Tangled

481,598

$9,545,553

2011

77

Captain America: The Winter Soldier

467,474

$8,206,693

Buy

78

The Expendables 3

462,598

$6,323,822

Buy

79

Jillian Michaels: 30 Day Shred

460,887

$3,614,225

2008 !

80

Maleficent

447,177

$8,983,452

Buy

81

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

446,877

$4,920,220

2013

...

 

Please no full quote in case some gets that idea! Full edit... & 'Enable HTML' is your friend.

[Tubes]

Digital has turned home video into a renters/subscription market.  I wonder, when taking that into account, just how much studio's fortunes have fallen since 2010.

[bapi]

The market was very different when the original Fast & Furious movie was released 15 years ago, HV sales were a big revenue maker, not anymore, so   I wouldn't use that as a comparison.  The argument could be made that Paul Walker's death boosted F&F6 on HV and F&F 7 at the BO, but might not boost the HV of F&F 7.  We'll just have to wait and see on this, but usually sequels generate less revenue than the previous movie in their series. 

 

F&F movies are the only ones not following the trend of sequels generating less revenue on HV and can be explained by 2 reasons:

- F&F 4 increased from Tokyo Drift because the 3rd movie in the franchise was considered a spinoff at the time 

- F&F 6 increased from Fast 5 because of Paul Walker's death

 

Lastly, there is not a strong correlation between total BO and HV revenues.  Just look at Iron Man 3 and Frozen, both have similar BO gross but IM3 generated 85M in HV and Frozen generated 355M. 

 

I still stand by my original prediction. 

 

FF7 sales...

 

DVD this week: -66%

Blu-ray this week: -76%

 

Honestly if we'd move 4-5 weeks forward then Furious 7 will have just around 50M from DVD / blu and will be waiting for maybe some minor Xmas boost. And FF8. Laughable.

Edited October 12, 2015 by bapi

[kowhite]

Digital has turned home video into a renters/subscription market. I wonder, when taking that into account, just how much studio's fortunes have fallen since 2010.

A lot.

Fortunately international box office is...helping...some.

Not enough though.

But yeah, the home market is moving away from sales. That's profit the studios can't replace with rentals or subs. And it ain't coming back.

Edited October 13, 2015 by kowhite

[jimisawesome]

Digital has turned home video into a renters/subscription market.  I wonder, when taking that into account, just how much studio's fortunes have fallen since 2010.

 

As of a couple years ago the margins for studios where half of what they where in 2005 and the trend of course was smaller margins.  Netflix price dumping is the reason why studios would be stupid to make anything but high concept presold properties. 

[kowhite]

As of a couple years ago the margins for studios where half of what they where in 2005 and the trend of course was smaller margins.  Netflix price dumping is the reason why studios would be stupid to make anything but high concept presold properties.

I don't blame Netflix.

This was inevitable. You buy movies so the movies you love are at your fingertips.

But the internet said...they're at your fingertips, always...and you don't need to buy them. It had to go this way.

[Mojoguy]

I feel like Disney botched the Frozen video release.

 

They could have delayed the video release by 2 or 3 months early on when they saw how leggy the movie was becoming, and ended up with a bigger boxoffice and sold the EXACT same amount on Bluray and dvd.

I don't know if retail stores had Disney by the balls, or Disney just didn't want to spend a couple of million reprinting adverting materiel for the video release. Their lost.

 

I doubt Frozen 2 will be able to match the first movie's home video numbers. Maybe Disney will be able to plan better and have the video release be 6 months after the Frozen sequel comes out this time, and arrange for a much longer theater run in Japan?

[kowhite]

Frozen fucking KILLED it on home video.

KILLED it. Like, it's 2004 killed it.

And most of that in the the first couple months.

Frozen made ...ok, it did 2m the weekend prior. But given how shit Cinderella did considering how long that movie waited. I don't think waiting would've been wise. A few million at the box office at the risk of troubling the best video sales of fucking anything in years?

No, Disney got that one right.

[The Futurist]

Frozen fucking KILLED it on home video.

KILLED it. Like, it's 2004 killed it.

And most of that in the the first couple months.

Frozen made ...ok, it did 2m the weekend prior. But given how shit Cinderella did considering how long that movie waited. I don't think waiting would've been wise. A few million at the box office at the risk of troubling the best video sales of fucking anything in years?

No, Disney got that one right.

 

As I said, Frozen was just an anomaly, the last taste of dead era.