MCKillswitch123 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 (edited) Not sure about that. No doubt Spotlight has the award in the bag, but it's hard to call them all token gigs when most of them actually deserve the award (unlike last year where only about half of the chosen movies - Birdman, Whiplash, TGBH and Boyhood - actually were worth the win), and a lot of them will get acting nominations as well, unlike Spotlight which seems (unfairly) snubbed in that area (seriously, the only one with a remote chance of a nom is maybe Michael Keaton, which is both sad and scary because the Spotlight cast was excellent... too much good acting this year or just critics being douches again?). The only ones that I'd say are there just as total token gigs to please fans are Mad Max, The Martian, Inside Out and (if it makes it there) Star Wars. No way any of those gets any awards at all (except for Best Visuals for SW and Best Animated for IO, which, you know, OF FUCKING COURSE THEY WOULD), let alone Best Picture. Edited December 13, 2015 by MCKillswitch123 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said: Not sure about that. No doubt Spotlight has the award in the bag, but it's hard to call them all token gigs when most of them actually deserve the award (unlike last year where only about half of the chosen movies - Birdman, Whiplash, TGBH and Boyhood - actually were worth the win), and a lot of them will get acting nominations as well, unlike Spotlight which seems (unfairly) snubbed in that area (seriously, the only one with a remote chance of a nom is maybe Michael Keaton, which is both sad and scary because the Spotlight cast was excellent... too much good acting this year or just critics being douches again?). The only ones that I'd say are there just as total token gigs to please fans are Mad Max, The Martian, Inside Out and (if it makes it there) Star Wars. No way any of those gets any awards at all (except for Best Visuals for SW and Best Animated for IO, which, you know, OF FUCKING COURSE THEY WOULD), let alone Best Picture. I'd say Rachel McAdams is in given how flaccid Supporting Actress is. But yeah, everyone deserves a collective nomination. A true ensemble if there ever was one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCKillswitch123 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 I think that depends on wheater or not will the Academy categorize Alicia and Rooney as in the Best Lead race for The Danish Girl and Carol respectively. If yes, then I'd say yeah, Rachel's in, without too much difficulty (considering that Kate Winslet, Helen Mirren and Jennifer Jason Leigh are locks, then Jane Fonda and Rachel complement). If not, then fuck no she won't be there. I wouldn't say the Supporting Actress race is flaccid, though. It's not mindblowing (like the Director and potentially Lead Actress races), but it's pretty good, and REALLY open, if anything. I geniunely don't know who might win. Closest thing to safe money is on Jennifer, but yeah. And I'd much rather that than a monopolizing lock and then everyone else just there (like last year with Patricia Arquette). To each his own, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said: I think that depends on wheater or not will the Academy categorize Alicia and Rooney as in the Best Lead race for The Danish Girl and Carol respectively. The Academy generally defers to what the studio wants. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 2 hours ago, 4815162342 said: The Academy generally defers to what the studio wants. Which is weird because Mara and Vikander would have a better chance of winning in lead than supporting. Also they'd both easily get in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Vikander would struggle, but Mara would be in and likely the winner if Cate campaigned for her and didn't cause vote splitting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 (edited) Some of you are way too confident about Spotlight. It is way too far out to be saying all these awards are locked up. Last year at this time Birdman couldn't even touch Boyhood in any of the odds, and look what happened. Not only that but Selma was still firmly ahead of Birdman in the odds. So yeah. Edited December 14, 2015 by MovieMan89 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 For the heck of it-team Brooklyn! What? The other films were getting support and this one felt left out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I'm thinking Spotlight peaks too early a la The Social Network and Boyhood. The trick is to see what else can take it. Hateful Eight could get it despite not having a Globe Nom, and The Big Short seems to be rising very fast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 (edited) I am really surprised with The big short rise. Bravo to all of the members that were predicting this before it happened. I am also unsure about Spotlight chances to get the gold. Edited December 14, 2015 by stripe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 So, those BFCA noms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Why is there so much confidence in The Hateful Eight? It isn't going to get a best picture nomination, let alone win. I'm starting to feel like Mad Max could run away with this. I think Spotlight's odds of winning are like 1/5 and rapidly decreasing, but what is going to come up ahead? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tau Ceti Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Talk about MMFR peaking at the right time. I think Spotlight's BP chances are starting to suffer from ancillary categories not just the strength of other contenders. No one knows which of or where to vote for its actors and screenplay and director never felt that assured in the first place. I'd still rank it better than 1/5 but it's slipping. Carol and The Big Short appear to be the surging horses right now and The Martian is treading water. I don't see Hateful making much of a play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Hateful has a decent shot to win Score and/or Supporting Actress but it keeps missing the big two categories with the precursors so I wouldn't be surprised if it's not even nominated there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 It wasn't ever really in contention for a nomination. It had minor Tarantino written all over it and it could be his weakest received film. It isn't supposed to be that good and the last act is super self indulgent. I guess we'll know for sure on the 21st. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tau Ceti Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 At the risk of jumping the gun, I'm starting to think TFA gets in here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 On 12/14/2015, 12:23:15, TStechnij said: It wasn't ever really in contention for a nomination. It had minor Tarantino written all over it and it could be his weakest received film. It isn't supposed to be that good and the last act is super self indulgent. I guess we'll know for sure on the 21st. Agreed. Odds are slim it gets in w/o the Best Drama Globe nom. That has always preceded a BP nom for a Tarantino flick and I get the feeling the HFP are a bit warmer to him than the Academy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 (edited) after the massive epic Star wars reviews ,i'm now tipping it for a best picture win, its in a 2 horse race with critics fav spotlight. 1. Star wars - force awakens - nostalgia factor, monster box office - to JUST pip spotlight 2. Spotlight (will win for director) ****** 3. The revenant 4. The big short 5. the martian 6. Brooklyn 7. Room 8. mad max fury road 9. carol 10. inside out Edited December 16, 2015 by Halba Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 LOL. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 (edited) now 97%, 8.4/10. outstanding considering the genre. Star wars is now equal favourite for a best picture win and should go down in the history books as the best blockbuster of all time. Edited December 16, 2015 by Halba Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...