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2015 Best Picture predictions!

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Not sure about that. No doubt Spotlight has the award in the bag, but it's hard to call them all token gigs when most of them actually deserve the award (unlike last year where only about half of the chosen movies - Birdman, Whiplash, TGBH and Boyhood - actually were worth the win), and a lot of them will get acting nominations as well, unlike Spotlight which seems (unfairly) snubbed in that area (seriously, the only one with a remote chance of a nom is maybe Michael Keaton, which is both sad and scary because the Spotlight cast was excellent... too much good acting this year or just critics being douches again?).

 

The only ones that I'd say are there just as total token gigs to please fans are Mad Max, The Martian, Inside Out and (if it makes it there) Star Wars. No way any of those gets any awards at all (except for Best Visuals for SW and Best Animated for IO, which, you know, OF FUCKING COURSE THEY WOULD), let alone Best Picture.

Edited by MCKillswitch123
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1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Not sure about that. No doubt Spotlight has the award in the bag, but it's hard to call them all token gigs when most of them actually deserve the award (unlike last year where only about half of the chosen movies - Birdman, Whiplash, TGBH and Boyhood - actually were worth the win), and a lot of them will get acting nominations as well, unlike Spotlight which seems (unfairly) snubbed in that area (seriously, the only one with a remote chance of a nom is maybe Michael Keaton, which is both sad and scary because the Spotlight cast was excellent... too much good acting this year or just critics being douches again?).

 

The only ones that I'd say are there just as total token gigs to please fans are Mad Max, The Martian, Inside Out and (if it makes it there) Star Wars. No way any of those gets any awards at all (except for Best Visuals for SW and Best Animated for IO, which, you know, OF FUCKING COURSE THEY WOULD), let alone Best Picture.

I'd say Rachel McAdams is in given how flaccid Supporting Actress is. But yeah, everyone deserves a collective nomination. A true ensemble if there ever was one.

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I think that depends on wheater or not will the Academy categorize Alicia and Rooney as in the Best Lead race for The Danish Girl and Carol respectively. If yes, then I'd say yeah, Rachel's in, without too much difficulty (considering that Kate Winslet, Helen Mirren and Jennifer Jason Leigh are locks, then Jane Fonda and Rachel complement). If not, then fuck no she won't be there.

 

I wouldn't say the Supporting Actress race is flaccid, though. It's not mindblowing (like the Director and potentially Lead Actress races), but it's pretty good, and REALLY open, if anything. I geniunely don't know who might win. Closest thing to safe money is on Jennifer, but yeah. And I'd much rather that than a monopolizing lock and then everyone else just there (like last year with Patricia Arquette). To each his own, though.

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1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I think that depends on wheater or not will the Academy categorize Alicia and Rooney as in the Best Lead race for The Danish Girl and Carol respectively.

 

The Academy generally defers to what the studio wants.

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Some of you are way too confident about Spotlight. It is way too far out to be saying all these awards are locked up. Last year at this time Birdman couldn't even touch Boyhood in any of the odds, and look what happened. Not only that but Selma was still firmly ahead of Birdman in the odds. So yeah. 

Edited by MovieMan89
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Why is there so much confidence in The Hateful Eight? It isn't going to get a best picture nomination, let alone win. 

 

I'm starting to feel like Mad Max could run away with this. I think Spotlight's odds of winning are like 1/5 and rapidly decreasing, but what is going to come up ahead?

 

 

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Talk about MMFR peaking at the right time.

 

I think Spotlight's BP chances are starting to suffer from ancillary categories not just the strength of other contenders. No one knows which of or where to vote for its actors and screenplay and director never felt that assured in the first place. I'd still rank it better than 1/5 but it's slipping. Carol and The Big Short appear to be the surging horses right now and The Martian is treading water. I don't see Hateful making much of a play.

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It wasn't ever really in contention for a nomination. It had minor Tarantino written all over it and it could be his weakest received film. It isn't supposed to be that good and the last act is super self indulgent. 

 

I guess we'll know for sure on the 21st. 

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On 12/14/2015, 12:23:15, TStechnij said:

It wasn't ever really in contention for a nomination. It had minor Tarantino written all over it and it could be his weakest received film. It isn't supposed to be that good and the last act is super self indulgent. 

 

I guess we'll know for sure on the 21st. 

Agreed. Odds are slim it gets in w/o the Best Drama Globe nom. That has always preceded a BP nom for a Tarantino flick and I get the feeling the HFP are a bit warmer to him than the Academy. 

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after the massive epic Star wars reviews ,i'm now tipping it for a best picture win, its in a 2 horse race with critics fav spotlight.

 

1. Star wars - force awakens - nostalgia factor, monster box office - to JUST pip spotlight

2. Spotlight (will win for director)

 

******

3. The revenant

4. The big short

5. the martian

6. Brooklyn

7. Room

8. mad max fury road

9. carol

10. inside out

Edited by Halba
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