Weekend Estimates: Insurgent 54m | Cinderella $34.5m pg 29

[seegs]

Possibility 1:

if insurgent follows American Sniper multiple on previews, it does 69m OW. if the legs on OW are equal to the avatar, it finishs with 670M

69m / 670m

 

Possibilty 2:

If insurgent follows paranormal activitys multipler on previews, it does 26M OW. and if legs of the OW are equal to the Undiscovered, it ends with 41m

26M / 41

 

So it does between 26M-69M in OW and between 41m-670m in Total

HA this is such a good post.

 

Anyway, I'm seeing this Sunday with family but I refuse to pay for 3D. 

[alisson23]

HA this is such a good post.

 

Anyway, I'm seeing this Sunday with family but I refuse to pay for 3D. 

I also go with my family . in 3D... I hope it's good.

[Nutterbutter]

It's hard predicting the weekend number off previews though. So many factors to take under consideration.

 

We'll have a clearer picture with the full Friday numbers.

[Jandrew]

It's pretty bad, might even be the worst in 20 years.

AND YALL WANT ALL THESE MOVIES TO BOMB!?

Go Insurgent go! Go Home go! Go Get Hard go! Good lord I didnt know this March was that bad.

Edited March 20, 2015 by Jandrew

[BadAtGender]

Foreign pre-sales covered 80% of DIVERGENT's budget. I wonder how much of that is true for INSURGENT.

 

Isn't that basically the case for all Lionsgate films? The studio isn't set up for foreign distro in most cases, so they have to presell all the rights?

 

I know that'd mean they can't reap the rewards of a foreign breakout, but it also probably means that they pretty much can't lose money on their films, either. It's efficient.

[grim22]

Foreign pre-sales covered 80% of DIVERGENT's budget. I wonder how much of that is true for INSURGENT.

 

Insurgent's budget is much bigger than Divergent, so I would guess the coverage from foreign sales may be lower considering that Divergent didn't do that well OS. The budget still is much lower than most other movies, not like they spent 200M on this or something. Lionsgate will make a tidy profit in the end.

Edited March 20, 2015 by grim22

[Aplandg]

Isn't that basically the case for all Lionsgate films? The studio isn't set up for foreign distro in most cases, so they have to presell all the rights?

I know that'd mean they can't reap the rewards of a foreign breakout, but it also probably means that they pretty much can't lose money on their films, either. It's efficient.

And the better their movies perform overseas, the better financial deals they will be able to garner for sequels with the foreign distributors.

[Fancyarcher]

I'm not surprised Insurgent might open with less then Divergent. The first wasn't particularly well received, and I'm sure worst reviews slightly hurt the film.

Edited March 20, 2015 by Fancyarcher

[grim22]

I'm not surprised Insurgent might open with less then Divergent. The first wasn't particularly well received, and I'm sure worst reviews slightly hurt the film.

 

With the addition of 3D and IMAX 3D, Insurgent actually only needs to retain 80% of the first movies audience to match the box office performance of the first movie if it gets a 40% 3D share.

[Dementeleus]

Isn't that basically the case for all Lionsgate films? The studio isn't set up for foreign distro in most cases, so they have to presell all the rights?

 

I know that'd mean they can't reap the rewards of a foreign breakout, but it also probably means that they pretty much can't lose money on their films, either. It's efficient.

 

Yeah, it's a very smart way to cover themselves. Not dealing with foreign distribution also means not having to pay for foreign marketing. Their overall investment in the project is pretty risk-free.

[Fancyarcher]

With the addition of 3D and IMAX 3D, Insurgent actually only needs to retain 80% of the first movies audience to match the box office performance of the first movie if it gets a 40% 3D share.

 

With a lower midnight number though, I think it'll open with less. My current prediction is 49m. Not that opening with that number makes the film a huge flop or anything.

Edited March 20, 2015 by Fancyarcher

[Dementeleus]

Insurgent's budget is much bigger than Divergent, so I would guess the coverage from foreign sales may be lower considering that Divergent didn't do that well OS. The budget still is much lower than most other movies, not like they spent 200M on this or something. Lionsgate will make a tidy profit in the end.

 

Sure, it's bigger, but it's not wildly bigger. At a guess, they probably covered around 40-50% of their production budget.

[Empire]

Not a great start, but not surprising with how bad it looked, how average the first was, and the poor marketing.

[ecstasy]

We'll have a clearer picture with the full Friday numbers.

 

Well of course.

[alisson23]

Sure, it's bigger, but it's not wildly bigger. At a guess, they probably covered around 40-50% of their production budget.

Liosgate received 65M (which is 59% of 110M)  from international distributors for Divergent. Do you think Lionsgate received less for insurgent?

Edited March 20, 2015 by TheMazeRunner23

[Chewy]

Would have been twice as big if Shailene had kept her hair long

Edited March 20, 2015 by Chewy

[grim22]

The turnaround speed for Insurgent is amazing in its efficiency actually. Not a lot of first sequels featuring the same cast have released exactly a year after the first movie. Maze Runner will also release its first sequel a year after the first movie. Studios seem to understand the value of cashing in when the franchises are at their peak and before the hype subsides.

[ecstasy]

Would have been twice as big if Shailene had kept her hair long

 

Oh God.

[grim22]

Would have been twice as big if Shailene had kept her hair long

 

[Chewy]

 

Oh God.

 

Sorry just wanted to make sure that I wrote the stupidest post in the thread

 

Let's see if anyone can top me