Ethan Hunt Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Yeah out of all the predictions, that is the most ridiculous. It's got a way higher chance of doing 170M on OW than it has doing only 170M dom. Nah, the 100M one for Ted 2 is hysterical 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babz06 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Those Jurassic World predictions are hilarious. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Honestly wasn't enough time/room. But I agree it'll do in that area.But there was time for PP2 and Poltergeist ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Gary Scott Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 But there was time for PP2 and Poltergeist ? Hey PP2 will be huge cause of the power of Kendrick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 FYI Shawn wont put outlandish numbers. I think as part of BO.com he has access to tracking data. Plus he has been among the most consistent prognosticators from the time I knew him at BOM forums. Combination of that there is some method. But like anything predictions can go wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talkie Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 FYI Shawn wont put outlandish numbers. I think as part of BO.com he has access to tracking data. Plus he has been among the most consistent prognosticators from the time I knew him at BOM forums. Combination of that there is some method. But like anything predictions can go wrong. I don't know about that. Remember the rather infamous Star Trek Into Darkness over Iron Man 3 thread? Shawn's predictions seemed more based on gut feelings instead of tracking and the actual box office potential of each film. There are other examples, as well. No disrespect to Shawn, but on the big films he has missed the mark on occasion, like all of us. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junkshop36 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Three of those TA2 predicts have it dropping 131m, 138m and 144m from the first movie. DA FUQ! That's more than AOTC dropped from TPM. We all know good and well why that dropped so much and it had very little to do with the old "sequels always drop from the first movie" idea. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Three of those TA2 predicts have it dropping 131m, 138m and 144m from the first movie. DA FUQ! That's more than AOTC dropped from TPM. We all know good and well why that dropped so much and it had very little to do with the old "sequels always drop from the first movie" idea. Higher dollar value but lower percentage. All of those are in the range of a 20% drop, which is reasonable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 (edited) Yeah out of all the predictions, that is the most ridiculous. It's got a way higher chance of doing 170M on OW than it has doing only 170M dom.Avengers 2 prediction is the most ridiculous thing ever. Edited April 8, 2015 by Snoopy of Suburbia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deep Wang Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 (edited) Three of those TA2 predicts have it dropping 131m, 138m and 144m from the first movie. DA FUQ! That's more than AOTC dropped from TPM. We all know good and well why that dropped so much and it had very little to do with the old "sequels always drop from the first movie" idea. AOTC also didn't have as far to fall from either. There are plenty of cases where a first sequel made more than it's predecessor. But as we all know, Catching Fire was the first follow up to a $400m movie to do so, and it barely made it. We are talking about a movie that made $215m MORE than Hunger Games did. You could fit all but the top 131 grossing films in that space between them! Edited April 8, 2015 by Boner Omega Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 And yet SM2 decreased 7-8% from SM1 despite (1) the first movie being a well-received juggernaut and (2) SM2 getting an even better critical/fan reception than the first. This is honestly the most likely scenario. Increase OW (Spidey 2 would have had it opened on a Friday) and a decrease overall DOM. That's I have the OW in the $215M to $230M range and the overall DOM in the $565M to $595M range. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 I just do not see how the Avengers 2 makes under 600m. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 I just do not see how the Avengers 2 makes under 600m. JohnnyGossamer just gave a really good reason why it could. One post up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avatree Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 I just do not see how the Avengers 2 makes under 600m. I can't either, with the Marvel brand having gone from strength to strength. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 JohnnyGossamer just gave a really good reason why it could. One post up. The marvel brand is too strong and May is wide open. No competition. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmnerdjamie Posted April 8, 2015 Author Share Posted April 8, 2015 But there was time for PP2 and Poltergeist ? I would have included Max, if there was room. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 My top 50 for summer 2015 1. Avengers – Age of Ultron: $645 million 2. Jurassic World: $405 million 3. Minions: $375 million 4. Inside Out: $330 million 5. Pixels: $240 million 6. Mission Impossible – Rogue Nation: $225 million 7. Pitch Perfect 2: $210 million 8. Spy: $205 million 9. Tomorrowland: $185 million 10. Ant-Man: $175 million 11. Ted 2: $165 million 12. The Fantastic Four: $145 million 13. Trainwreck: $140 million 14. Terminator – Genysis: $135 million 15. Vacation: $130 million 16. Straight Outta Compton: $115 million 17. Ricki and the Flash: $105 million 18. Paper Towns: $100 million 19. The Gallows: $95 million 20. Mad Max – Fury Road: $90 million 21. The Man From UNCLE: $85 million 22. Pan: $80 million 23. San Andreas: $75 million 24. Poltergeist: $70 million 25. Magic Mike XXL: $65 million 26. Insidious 3: $60 million 27. Hot Pursuit: $45 million 28. Kitchen Sink: $40 million 29. Southpaw: $30 million 30. Sinister 2: $30 million 31. Max: $30 million 32. Aloha: $25 million 33. Hitman – Agent 47: $25 million 34. Masterminds: $25 million 35. Entourage: $20 million 36. Me Before You: $20 million 37. Self/Less: $20 million 38. The Transporter Refueled: $20 million 39. War Room: $20 million 40. Before I Wake: $15 million 41. Jane Got a Gun: $15 million 42. The Outskirts: $15 million 43. Underdogs: $15 million 44. Regression: $15 million 45. The Gift: $10 million 46. No Escape: $10 million 47. Dope: $10 million 48. Criminal: $10 million 49. She’s Funny That Way: $10 million 50. The Bronze: $10 million Welp, if we're really gonna do this Avengers: Age of Ultron - 583M Minions - 311M Jurassic World - 272M Inside Out - 267M Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - 239M Pixels - 224M Ant-Man - 221M Fantastic Four - 190M Ted 2 - 184M Spy - 175M Terminator: Genisys - 161M Pitch Perfect 2 - 156M San Andreas - 145M The Man From U.N.C.L.E. - 144M Magic Mike XXL - 116M Tomorrowland - 112M Paper Towns - 111M Mad Max: Fury Road - 104M Vacation - 102M The Gallows - 95M Trainwreck - 89M Pan - 87M Straight Outta Compton - 86M Aloha - 85M Insidious Chapter 3 - 83M Ricki and the Flash - 78M Hot Pursuit - 74M Self/Less - 63M Masterminds - 61M Entourage - 55M Sinister 2 - 52M Poltergeist - 51M Max - 45M Before I Wake - 44M Hitman: Agent 47 - 39M Southpaw - 37M Regression - 32MMe Before You - 29M Dope - 28M Criminal - 26M The Gift - 16M Underdogs - 10M She's Funny That Way - 8M The Outskirts - 6M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 I'll probably take a listen to this podcast tonight once I'm done with my hw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Higher dollar value but lower percentage. All of those are in the range of a 20% drop, which is reasonable. Maybe OS but higher dollar value DOM? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 The entire month of May is open.. That pretty well means it's open season on the box office and it's going to make an absolute killing that weekend, more than anyone could possible fathom.. It's coming Old man.. Embrace it.. Unlike you, I think 500m+ is "an absolute killing". 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...