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kayumanggi

WEEKEND ESTIMATES | 05.08.15 - 05.10.15

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I think Ulton s biggest crime is the cannon fodder army done twice.

I always said Ultron s trailers had a more of the same feel to it.

I loved the movie but I don t know , I would have liked Ultron to have other powers than clone army.

 

Ultron was easily the most interesting villain of the Marvel canon yet (though that's not saying that much).

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For me it's not the fact that it dropped from TA. I fully expected it to do so. It's the steepeness of the drop that gets me.

A possible 170m drop is huge. Especially considering the love that TA gets and that TA2 is a good movie.

 

I'll restate this, adjust the drops to these movies and the drop makes perfect sense.  All of the following were phenomenon movies with highly successful sequels that still had massive drop offs.  (170m drop off looks very nice in comparison to a lot of these)

 

Jaws to Jaws 2 - 770m drop adjusted

 

The Exorcist to The Exorcist 2 - 726m drop adjusted

 

Star Wars to Empire Strikes Back - 519m drop adjusted

 

The Godfather to The Godfather Part 2 - 433m drop adjusted

 

Jurassic Park to Lost World - 294m drop adjusted

 

Phantom Menace to Attack of the Clones - 267m drop adjusted

 

Back to the Future to Back to the Future Part 2 - 241m drop adjusted

 

Beverly Hills Cop to Beverly Hills Cop 2 - 226m drop adjusted

 

Home Alone to Home Alone 2 - 210m drop adjusted

 

Shrek 2 to Shrek 3 - 197m drop adjusted

 

Batman to Batman Returns - 193m drop adjusted

 

Raiders of the Lost Ark to Temple of Doom - 193m drop adjusted

 

Men in Black to Men in Black 2 - 177m drop adjusted

 

Rocky to Rock 2 - 170m drop adjusted

 

Pirates 2 to Pirates 3 - 160m drop adjusted

 

Superman to Superman 2 - 149m drop adjusted

 

The Dark Knight to The Dark Knight Rises - 135m drop adjusted

 

Sorceror's Stone to Chamber of Secrets - 89m drop adjusted

 

Transformers 2 to Transformers 3 - 79m drop adjusted

 

Spider-Man to Spider-Man 2 - 76m drop adjusted

 

 

Only 3 didn't drop at least 100m and out of those only Spider-Man adjusts to over 500m

Edited by The Panda
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I'll restate this, adjust the drops to these movies and the drop makes perfect sense.  All of the following were phenomenon movies with highly successful sequels that still had massive drop offs.  (170m drop off looks very nice in comparison to a lot of these)

 

Jaws to Jaws 2 - 770m drop adjusted

 

The Exorcist to The Exorcist 2 - 726m drop adjusted

 

Star Wars to Empire Strikes Back - 519m drop adjusted

 

The Godfather to The Godfather Part 2 - 433m drop adjusted

 

Jurassic Park to Lost World - 294m drop adjusted

 

Phantom Menace to Attack of the Clones - 267m drop adjusted

 

Back to the Future to Back to the Future Part 2 - 241m drop adjusted

 

Beverly Hills Cop to Beverly Hills Cop 2 - 226m drop adjusted

 

Home Alone to Home Alone 2 - 210m drop adjusted

 

Shrek 2 to Shrek 3 - 197m drop adjusted

 

Batman to Batman Returns - 193m drop adjusted

 

Raiders of the Lost Ark to Temple of Doom - 193m drop adjusted

 

Men in Black to Men in Black 2 - 177m drop adjusted

 

Rocky to Rock 2 - 170m drop adjusted

 

Pirates 2 to Pirates 3 - 160m drop adjusted

 

Superman to Superman 2 - 149m drop adjusted

 

The Dark Knight to The Dark Knight Rises - 135m drop adjusted

 

Sorceror's Stone to Chamber of Secrets - 89m drop adjusted

 

Transformers 2 to Transformers 3 - 79m drop adjusted

 

Spider-Man to Spider-Man 2 - 76m drop adjusted

Very interesting list.

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You're being overly dramatic.. A movie about to hit 1 Billionllars is in no way a disappointment.. As a matter of fact, AOU has passed FF7 in some areas..

There never was supposed to be competition between FF7 and TA2. FF7 has over performed in every market while TA2 has been hit and miss. FF7 has completely stolen the spotlight from TA2, no question about it.

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For me it's not the fact that it dropped from TA. I fully expected it to do so. It's the steepeness of the drop that gets me.

A possible 170m drop is huge. Especially considering the love that TA gets and that TA2 is a good movie.

 

THIS.

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I think Ulton s biggest crime is the cannon fodder army done twice.

I always said Ultron s trailers had a more of the same feel to it.

I loved the movie but I don t know , I would have liked Ultron to have other powers than clone army.

 

Though I enjoyed Ultron than the other Marvel bad guys, I agree with you here. It was like Chitauri part II.

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There never was supposed to be competition between FF7 and TA2. FF7 has over performed in every market while TA2 has been hit and miss. FF7 has completely stolen the spotlight from TA2, no question about it.

 

FF7 just turned out to be the zeitgeist movie this year. No one saw that coming. I mean, literally everyone saw an increase coming, no one thought it would increase by the amount it did and become the water cooler discussion movie you just had to see. 

 

Sometimes the zeitgeist movie earns more than the pre-ordained champ (Spider-Man vs AOTC) and sometimes less (The Mummy or The Matrix vs Phantom Menace) but it does an effective job of embedding itself in the popular consciousness better.

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Well if that's the case, then INFINITY WAR or even CIVIL WAR might be screwed.. It's too much, right??

 

We need to have our expectations checked. I fully agree that it's wrong to expect the GA will watch all these films every year.

Edited by kayumanggi
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Really, if it weren't for Walkers demise and how they incorporated it into the story for the eulogy part, it wouldn't have made any more than the other 6 Furious movies.. Suped up cars and elaborate stunts can only go so far..

It would have done more. Not just 100M+ type of more. Something like 15-20M type of more would have happened either way.

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It would have done more. Not just 100M+ type of more. Something like 15-20M type of more would have happened either way.

 

Fast 6 did do 800M WW. With the addition of 3D in select markets, Furious 7 would have probably done 1B WW anyway.

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Well if that's the case, then INFINITY WAR or even CIVIL WAR might be screwed.. It's too much, right??

Not necessarily. If that's the last time big 4 are together that will be a big deal. I can definitely see it being back to TA1 level of excitement.

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TA2 continues to have worse holds than IM3, blah. Honestly, FF7 completely made it irrelevant.

 

You may be rewriting history a bit.    This topic has 67 pages with more to come while the 2nd weekend for FF7 had only 30 pages.   The interest in FF7 didn't really come close to the interest in AoU.

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/18375-weekend-estimates-tlr-135m-furious-7-605m-home-19m-f7-63m-od-in-china/

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Not necessarily. If that's the last time big 4 are together that will be a big deal. I can definitely see it being back to TA1 level of excitement.

 

I'm excited for CA: CW because of Spidey. What are you predicting for it?

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No one saw F7's increase. No one saw AOU's drop.

 

I though that it would drop domestically for sure but it is underperforming even my low expectations. The Avengers is the top dog of Marvel's cinematic universe and it now raises stakes for other movies in the Marvelverse. For example, movies like Antman and Dr. Strange are more important now than they were two weeks ago. 

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