Weekend Estimates (4-day): TL 41.7 M | PP II 38.5 M | MM: FR 32.1 M | A:AOU 27.8 M | POLTERGEIST 26.5 M

[MovieMan89]

Next Memorial day we may see X-Men: Apocalypse alone outgrossing Tomorrowland, Pitch Perfect 2, Mad Max Fury Road, and Poltergeist over this weekend combined, and Alice bombing with the combined numbers of AOU and Paul Blart 2.

Say what now? It would be impossible for a sequel to a 300m+ movie to open to only 20m. Maybe 50m, but even that would be one of the worst OW sequel drop offs ever. Besides, Alice was nowhere near as disliked by the target audience as it is by most of us. It's the same as Maleficent, which obviously was widely liked by its target audience despite what most of us thought. Not that anyone was explicitly asking for the sequel and it will drop big for sure, but families will still show up to at least to the tune of a 150m total I'm sure.

[grim22]

Say what now? It would be impossible for a sequel to a 300m+ movie to open to only 20m. Maybe 50m, but even that would be one of the worst OW sequel drop offs ever. Besides, Alice was nowhere near as disliked by the target audience as it is by most of us. It's the same as Maleficent, which obviously was widely liked by its target audience despite what most of us thought. Not that anyone was explicitly asking for the sequel and it will drop big for sure, but families will still show up to at least to the tune of a 150m total I'm sure.

 

Alice had an OW 3D share of 78%, if Alice retains the entire OW audience it will drop 35-40M (or more) from the 116M just on 3D share percentage. 70M is the absolute ceiling for Alice's OW, and that is with complete retention of audience, but with Apocalypse on the same weekend, won't be surprised with Tomorrowland numbers.

[Travod]

The other newbie, the Fox/MGM horror reboot, Poltergeist, scared in about $7.3M to $7.5M and looks right now to take the No. 4 spot for the 3-day weekend with around $22.4M to $23.2M but the 4-day may go to Disney/Marvel’s Avengers: Age of Ultron. More to come tomorrow.

 

Ugh, they have numbers for 1, 2, and 4, but not Mad Max. Damn you WB.

[tonytr87]

Slightly depressed by the reviews and potentially bad box office for Tomorrowland now. Why? Just saw it...not a great movie, but a good one, and a movie that I feel critics are holding to a higher standard than they should. This is a kid's movie through and through. I was never bored, and something about it touched me, though I can't put my finger on it. 

[MovieMan89]

Alice had an OW 3D share of 78%, if Alice retains the entire OW audience it will drop 35-40M (or more) from the 116M just on 3D share percentage. 70M is the absolute ceiling for Alice's OW, and that is with complete retention of audience, but with Apocalypse on the same weekend, won't be surprised with Tomorrowland numbers.

No it wouldn't. You're taking like 40% of the first's 3D share out and forgetting to add back in the normal ticket price. If Alice's OW had been the standard 70-75% 2d share of today, then the OW would have been roughly around 100m. Not factoring in 6 years of inflation. So really, only about 10m lower than the same OW the first made would be what the second would make if it retained the first's OW audience off a 30% 3d share. Not that it will of course, but it's not bleeding admissions by no 80%+ either. Also just know that 62m by The Two Towers is the lowest a sequel to a 300m+ grosser has ever opened, and that's because it was a Wednesday opener. Shrek Forever After's 70m would be the lowest for Friday openers. Also excluding Empire Strikes Back because that was a completely different era of BO.

[grim22]

Also just know that 62m by The Two Towers is the lowest a sequel to a 300m+ grosser has ever opened, and that's because it was a Wednesday opener. Shrek Forever After's 70m would be the

lowest for Friday openers. Also excluding Empire Strikes Back because that was a completely different era of BO.

 

I still think AIW will open to less than 50M over the 4 day. This is pretty much a sequel no one asked for to a movie which made full use of the 3D fad starring an actor who has pissed off his goodwill in the interim. Disney's fairytale adaptations have also been decreasing in OW take with every movie, from Alice's 116M to OZ's 79M to Maleficent's 69M to Cinderella's 67M.

We will have new benchmarks for the OW drop for a sequel to a 300M grossing movie.

Edited May 24, 2015 by grim22

[MovieMan89]

I still think AIW will open to less than 50M over the 4 day. This is pretty much a sequel no one asked for to a movie which made full use of the 3D fad starring an actor who has pissed off his goodwill in the interim. Disney's fairytale adaptations have also been decreasing in OW take with every movie, from Alice's 116M to OZ's 79M to Maleficent's 69M to Cinderella's 67M.

We will have new benchmarks for the OW drop for a sequel to a 300M grossing movie.

A new benchmark yes. But expect that to be like a 50-60m OW. There is no chance in hell it would be only 20 or 25m.

[keysersoze123]

All previous data around what is the minimum OW for a 300m grosser is irrelevant. Back then Depp was a megastar. Now his BO power is dead. Also there is no Burton. AIW was released in peak of 3D mania post Avatar. Now 3D is dead. Plus as grim said there is no need for this sequel.

 

This will break all records of lowest grossing sequel for a 300m/1B WW movie. I can see it missing 100m domestic.

[tonytr87]

All previous data around what is the minimum OW for a 300m grosser is irrelevant. Back then Depp was a megastar. Now his BO power is dead. Also there is no Burton. AIW was released in peak of 3D mania post Avatar. Now 3D is dead. Plus as grim said there is no need for this sequel.

 

This will break all records of lowest grossing sequel for a 300m/1B WW movie. I can see it missing 100m domestic.

 

Missing 100mil is a bit far-fetched. It's still a big Disney brand and they'll market it to hell. Probably 150mil domestic. 

[grim22]

For some reason the banner pic being used on the box office story by Deadline looks funny, like a weird juxtaposition

[MovieMan89]

All previous data around what is the minimum OW for a 300m grosser is irrelevant. Back then Depp was a megastar. Now his BO power is dead. Also there is no Burton. AIW was released in peak of 3D mania post Avatar. Now 3D is dead. Plus as grim said there is no need for this sequel.

 

This will break all records of lowest grossing sequel for a 300m/1B WW movie. I can see it missing 100m domestic.

Even TL might make 100 and look how bad it's bombing. I can't see a live action Disney fairytale doing that poorly, sequel or not, when they've all cleared 150m with total ease (200m actually). As for the Depp issue, all they have to do is minimize him and emphasize Hathaway, HBC, and ya know...the actual lead character this time. And I say again, the first was not poorly received by its target audience judging by the multi off such a big OW. Most of us here were not the target audience. I think 50/150 is a safe bet.

Edited May 24, 2015 by MovieMan89

[AndyLL]

I'm gonna have to break yhe news to ya: Tele really isn't as old as many of you think he is... As a matter of fact, I've guessed Tele's age closer than anyone.. I'd say between myself and Andy, were the 2 oldest one's on this site...

 

Don't believe what you've heard.  This is Tele as a baby:

 

[eXtacy]

Pretty poor numbers all round

[DeeCee]

For some reason the banner pic being used on the box office story by Deadline looks funny, like a weird juxtaposition

Yes!

 

George Clooney and Rebel Wilson in .........

[BK007]

lol what's the point of MD weekend anymore? 

 

Highest opener is still AWE from 8 years ago.

 

Since 2010, the 5 movies that have opened over $60m have been Kung Fu Panda 2 (barely and was a major disappointment), MIB3 at $69m (which no one even remembers now) and Hangover 2, Fast 6 and DOFP. The latter which was also a good recovery though not taking into account inflation, 3D, reviews etc.

 

In fact, in the last 10 years, the only movies that weren't disappointments were Fast 6, Hangover 2 and way back in 2005 the Madagascar + Longest Yard combo. 

[keysersoze123]

I think few main reasons are most big blockbusters either open 1st weekend of May or weekend before memorial. So that kind of diluted memorial weekend.

[CJohn]

Save us Dwayne. 

[Boxofficerules]

I noticed Poltergeist is trailing Evil Dead (2013) figures. Which is odd considering Poltergeist is rated PG13 and has increased 3D ticket prices. Shouldn't it be doing much better since it's open to a broader audience? Evil Dead even cost half to make than Poltergeist did and it didn't have any known stars in it.

[reddevil18]

lol what's the point of MD weekend anymore? 

 

Highest opener is still AWE from 8 years ago.

 

Since 2010, the 5 movies that have opened over $60m have been Kung Fu Panda 2 (barely and was a major disappointment), MIB3 at $69m (which no one even remembers now) and Hangover 2, Fast 6 and DOFP. The latter which was also a good recovery though not taking into account inflation, 3D, reviews etc.

 

In fact, in the last 10 years, the only movies that weren't disappointments were Fast 6, Hangover 2 and way back in 2005 the Madagascar + Longest Yard combo. 

The last decade has also had IJ4 and X3 - regardless of their legs, they were still gigantic openers.

[Jessie]

San Andreas will perform like any other disaster movie that's come along...

So an OW anywhere from 5m to 70m