GregBeuke Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 I don't see JW losing that much. Terminator will definitely lose so much more since it's losing IMAX and is the less watched. Based off a dozen nearby theaters. It seems like Jurassic World has as much or less show times than Terminator Genisys. It looks like both got cut to around 2,500 screens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregBeuke Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 What's Terminator going to be at by Sunday? 82-83 million range most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowan Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Based off a dozen nearby theaters. It seems like Jurassic World has as much or less show times than Terminator Genisys. It looks like both got cut to around 2,500 screens. I really don't think JW is going to lose that much. Maybe around 300-400 at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 (edited) All true. Even still, hell of a box office spring/summer for The Rock. Furious 7 and San Andreas combined for $500M+ DOM and just under $2B WW. He has had a great year. Even though I agree that The Rock is a good box office draw, I think the draw is a bit over-rated. He still, like most actors needs to be smartly packaged. I don't think he can rise above the marketing and the movie (few actors can, but The Rock gets talked up a lot these days). If Hercules were to open later this year it wouldn't do that much better imo. should it be The Rock or the The Rock Edited July 16, 2015 by a2k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JennaJ Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Based off a dozen nearby theaters. It seems like Jurassic World has as much or less show times than Terminator Genisys. It looks like both got cut to around 2,500 screens. You can tell so much based on a dozen theaters? Amazing deduction powers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDC1987 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Based off a dozen nearby theaters. It seems like Jurassic World has as much or less show times than Terminator Genisys. It looks like both got cut to around 2,500 screens. Not an achievement for TG lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Alfred Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 MMFR is having a much better PTA, will overtake SA back when it gets severe theatre cut and plays in less than 400 venues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Planodisney Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Minions is starting to get beat up pretty soundly by TS3 daily numbers. It will finish roughly 5 million short of TS3 first week. In the end it's going to finish well short of 400 million but it's ww gross is going to be comfortably over 1 billion if it gets a China release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gautske Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Really great first post. Those are some interesting questions to ask. I totally agree that it's bad we don't get per-screening averages anymore. It looks like BOM just stopped updating those in November, so we can only guess at how many showtimes openers get, and how much retention other movies have. Still, while I don't know anything for certain, there are a couple generalities that I think can apply. First, once a movie has been playing a while, it's probably not going to be concerned with saturation. A film like MMFR, even while it's kept its per theater average up, is probably only playing on one screen at a given theater, and maybe only for a limited (under 4) showtimes per day. Even in such a case, anyone who wants to see the film can probably get a seat without trouble. Second, prior to opening, theaters are going to be making assumptions about how much the films are going to gross in that theater. They'll make showtimes based on those assumptions, which could be poorly done and such. Later behavior for whether they keep a movie or not is probably going to be informed by that performance (but, again, poor decisions can abound.) During Frozen's run, I started looking at its performance compared to new openers, and knowing that films newly in release send a higher percentage of the take to the studios than films that have been going a while, figured that part of the reason Frozen stuck around was that it was more valuable to theaters, even for films that might have been grossing two to three times as much. So there's a huge incentive to let a film with very strong late legs to keep going. However, with that said, films with very strong late legs are very few and far between. Frozen and Avatar and Titanic might be theater godsends, but they're not common and can't be predicted. Besides that, a theater has to consider the math "Is this the weekend said strong running film drops off a cliff? Or is this the weekend hot new opener breaks out in a big way?" Thirdly, despite that accounting math, it's possible that the box office take doesn't matter for many theaters. It's possible that the per screening average doesn't really matter at all. This is because theaters tend to make most of their money off of concessions. And in that case, it doesn't matter if they're getting a higher percentage from one film over another. What they really want is more people, because more people means more popcorn. Something like MMFR has had good legs, especially in light of the competition, but it hasn't been ungodly, so it's pretty understandable (if a bit disappointing) for theaters to shed it. Especially when new openers are bringing in so many more snack-eating bodies. Thanks for your response. I've just found the run really... interesting. I think Universal/Disney could easily have used their summer hits to prop up the fading PP2 and AOU because of the funny math and all. The irony is that my following/curiosity was kind of brought on by obnoxious PP2 fans. I didn't even anticipate liking MM:FR as much as I did and wasn't until a second viewing because I missed so much because of a crazily cranked up sound system (particularly the bass) that I had to complain to management about (and something I have others around the country complain about as well). It wasn't until I recommended the movie to friends who were less than enthusiastic (and said there were no convenient showtimes) that I started paying attention to all the weird anomalies within certain markets and chains. I think I'm particularly aggravated that any theater (especially one with 24 screens) would hold Poltergeist and Beyond the Mask longer than MM:FR — both of which quickly disappeared soon after. I think that the R-rating made people assume Lucy/Prometheus legs, and the JW bite wasn't correctly accounted for. Plus, spillover for the family friendly affairs seems to have led many theaters to schedule more friendly during the day for PG/PG-13 affairs (and other theaters nearby didn't which is odd). I've also noticed chains schedule say a 10:00 am and 4:00 pm at one theater, a Noon and 7:00 pm at another, and then 2:00 pm and 9:00pm at yet a third which makes you think there is definitely some kind of directive or cooperation going on among the local theaters or higher-ups. I digress.... Would love to know what these blanket 12:00pm 5:00pm Saturday showings of 50 Shades of Grey are bringing in. Perhaps this is just a coincidence, but independent theaters and smaller chains that I've looked at seem to have screenings/scheduling that make a whole lot more sense then the the big three exhibitors. It makes me wonder what all is being challenged with that anti-trust investigation currently underway. Does anyone know if studios "give up" screens or sacrifice their older releases for the new ones? For example, did WB willingly shed MM:FR and SA (though not for Entourage) theaters for Entourage, Max, MMXXL, and The Gallows? Like would MM:FR's theater count held up if Entourage hadn't released when it did or would that not matter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dxmatrixdt Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 could we please get some of the theater count losses posted asap today. thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 could we please get some of the theater count losses posted asap today. thank you! BOM hasn't updated them yet. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/counts/chart/?yr=2015&wk=29&p=.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDC1987 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Minions is starting to get beat up pretty soundly by TS3 daily numbers. It will finish roughly 5 million short of TS3 first week. In the end it's going to finish well short of 400 million but it's ww gross is going to be comfortably over 1 billion if it gets a China release. TS3 then only had a 37.5% 2nd Friday increase. And Minions won't need China for $1 billion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Planodisney Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 37.5% increase or not! Minions still has to gross 60 million this weekend just to keep pace. However, it can't keep up with next weeks TS3 daily numbers and definitely not with its 3rd weekend number with TS3's extended weekend. After 3rd Monday it will be at least 15 million behind TS3 and will continue to fall further behind daily. Probably right about 1 billion without China but not locked if it bombs in Korea and Japan I think. I would like to see it breakout in Japan and have an American animated film other than Disney/Pixar do well there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 (edited) Preview showtimes in OC update: - Ant-Man dropped 2 showtimes, down to 140 showings from 142 yesterday. - Trainwreck came on strong today and increased from 20 showtimes to 75 showtimes today. Baselines so far: Terminator+Magic Mike was 156 showtimes the day before release (didn't check the day of release), Minions was 227 showtimes the day before release. Preview showtimes in OC Thursday 2pm update: - Ant-Man added 4 showtimes, up to 144 showings from 140. - Trainwreck added 10 showtimes and increased to 85 showtimes today. Baselines so far: Terminator+Magic Mike was 156 showtimes the day before release (didn't check the day of release), Minions was 246 showtimes on Thursday noon. Edited July 16, 2015 by grim22 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TServo2049 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 I remember an article when DM2 came out: When Illumination Chief Executive Chris Meledandri showed early storyboards and animation tests to some Japanese animators he knew, they deemed the minions "kawaii," a Japanese word meaning cuteness on steroids — high praise from countrymen of Pokémon and Hello Kitty. So then why doesn't Minions seem to have any potential to break out in Japan? Is it just the mindset that Japanese audiences seem to have that there is no worthwhile non-Japanese animation outside of Disney? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Some tracking data: "Fantastic Four" just came on tracking, and it could open with $55m while "Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation" looks closer to $40m. — Amy Kaufman (@AmyKinLA) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Minions has doubled it's production budget domestically in 6 days. What have you been up to.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDC1987 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 37.5% increase or not! Minions still has to gross 60 million this weekend just to keep pace. However, it can't keep up with next weeks TS3 daily numbers and definitely not with its 3rd weekend number with TS3's extended weekend. After 3rd Monday it will be at least 15 million behind TS3 and will continue to fall further behind daily. Probably right about 1 billion without China but not locked if it bombs in Korea and Japan I think. I would like to see it breakout in Japan and have an American animated film other than Disney/Pixar do well there. Crumbling. Flop. Illumination is dead. Anyway, JW would have to have a thoroughly miniscule drop and gross $2,170,330 today to hit $600 million. Not that it matters, but that likely won't happen and it will miss it by an annoyingly small amount. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day 1 1 Minions Uni. $11,505,175 -32% - 4,301 $2,675 $157,008,005 6 2 2 Inside Out BV $2,584,048 -22% -49% 3,644 $709 $292,470,389 27 3 3 Jurassic World Uni. $2,202,240 -21% -41% 3,441 $640 $597,829,670 34 4 4 Terminator: Genisys Par. $1,513,260 -28% -45% 3,783 $400 $74,067,580 15 5 5 Magic Mike XXL WB $1,481,116 -18% -46% 3,376 $439 $52,868,809 15 6 6 The Gallows WB (NL) $954,157 -27% - 2,720 $351 $13,180,218 6 7 7 Ted 2 Uni. $792,415 -17% -56% 2,171 $365 $74,224,965 20 8 8 Self/Less Focus $637,788 -29% - 2,353 $271 $7,579,653 6 9 9 Max (2015) WB $533,031 -21% -57% 2,088 $255 $35,528,309 20 10 10 Spy Fox $412,144 -18% -45% 1,457 $283 $104,813,787 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 37.5% increase or not! Minions still has to gross 60 million this weekend just to keep pace. However, it can't keep up with next weeks TS3 daily numbers and definitely not with its 3rd weekend number with TS3's extended weekend. After 3rd Monday it will be at least 15 million behind TS3 and will continue to fall further behind daily. Probably right about 1 billion without China but not locked if it bombs in Korea and Japan I think. I would like to see it breakout in Japan and have an American animated film other than Disney/Pixar do well there. No one here thinks or ever suggested Minions would make 400 mill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
