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Wednesday: Minions 11.1, IO 2.6, JW 2.2

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Hello, I am a new member, here is the first glance at ANT-MAN entries in France
Sorry it is in French

 

 

Certain kinds of embedding are still allowed if you use "Source" and the raw code. We're not gonna turn automatic embedding back on until that dang tweetquake issue is fixed.

 

https://twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/864133673980973056

Edited by Finnick
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And lol at some of you trying to make it look like Minions is crumbling when no one said anything when IO had a first Wednesday drop that was only 5% lighter. Minions first Tuesday hold was 6% higher, so it evens out perfectly. They're having extremely similar first week holds, which is why Minions is probably in for only a 40-45% drop this weekend like IO's 2nd weekend.

Summer weekdays are strongest in July, so I doubt 40-45% 2nd weekend drop. That would be a ridiculous $63-66 million 2nd weekend. In order to do that from a $10.5-11 million Thurs, it would almost need a 90-100% Fri jump lol. Only could have happened with a $14-14.5 million Thurs. 

 

I'm not saying it's crumbling, but it's certainly not going to have a mega-rebound with Ant-Man opening and taking away some families.

 

$11.1 million

$10.5 million

$15 million

$20.5 million 

$16 million

 

$51 million ($217 million)

 

And everyone's dream for Shrek 3-esque legs just might come true  :P personally, I think it'll rebound from its 4th weekend on and get $350-370 million like IO. 

Edited by mahnamahna
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Summer weekdays are strongest in July, so I doubt 40-45% 2nd weekend drop. That would be a ridiculous $63-66 million 2nd weekend. In order to do that from a $10.5-11 million Thurs, it would almost need a 90-100% Fri jump lol. Only could have happened with a $14-14.5 million Thurs. 

 

I'm not saying it's crumbling, but it's certainly not going to have a mega-rebound with Ant-Man opening and taking away some families.

 

$11.1 million

$10.5 million

$15 million

$20.5 million 

$16 million

 

$51 million ($217 million)

 

And everyone's dream for Shrek 3-esque legs just might come true  :P personally, I think it'll rebound from its 4th weekend on and get $350-370 million like IO. 

I think 51 million is too low for the second weekend, I would say between 55 and 57 is more likely for a total of around 360.

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I think Minions will hold well this weekend 56-58, but it will tumble next weekend when Pixels arrive, they both appeal to the same audience.  

 

https://twitter.com/BORReport/status/868815729079877634

Edited by Finnick
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I think 51 million is too low for the second weekend, I would say between 55 and 57 is more likely for a total of around 360.

$10.5 million

$16.5 million

$21.5 million

$17 million

 

Possibly, but it requires quite a jump. I think the drop from Fri to Sat indicates WOM for this isn't going to be great. 2.8x-3x possibly. 3x-3.2x is still likely but not a lock at this point. $52-54 million 2nd weekend is likely, with another 48-52% drop against Pixels. Sure, it'll stabilize after that, but the damage will have been done. 

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I dont think 60% increase will happen for kids flick in July. But let us wait and watch. 1st have to see how it drops today. Ant-man does not look like having huge previews but I will be shocked by anything below 5m. Mostly I am thinking 6m. That is as big as last week. So I am thinking 10% drop today for jaundiced robots.

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$10.5 million

$16.5 million

$21.5 million

$17 million

 

Possibly, but it requires quite a jump. I think the drop from Fri to Sat indicates WOM for this isn't going to be great. 2.8x-3x possibly. 3x-3.2x is still likely but not a lock at this point. $52-54 million 2nd weekend is likely, with another 48-52% drop against Pixels. Sure, it'll stabilize after that, but the damage will have been done. 

strange you were saying 410 million yesterday, I don't think the wednesday drop is that telling..

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$10.5 million

$16.5 million

$21.5 million

$17 million

 

Possibly, but it requires quite a jump. I think the drop from Fri to Sat indicates WOM for this isn't going to be great. 2.8x-3x possibly. 3x-3.2x is still likely but not a lock at this point. $52-54 million 2nd weekend is likely, with another 48-52% drop against Pixels. Sure, it'll stabilize after that, but the damage will have been done. 

 

Removing previews for both IO and Minions (started at 6pm) the first Friday to Saturday change,

 

IO

30.66

30.94 +0.009%

 

Minions

39.8

38.85 -2.36%

 

So just this data isn't enough to say wom isn't gonna be great.

Edited by a2k
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1st Mon to 1st Wed drop for IO and Minions.

IO

Mon 10.48m

Wed 9.37m

-10.6%

Minions

Mon 12.94m

Wed 11.1m

-14.3%

52-54 would be indicative that its WOM isn't great. Not awful but not great either.

From $10.5m Thurs, anything over $55M would be a bit much

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Removing previews for both IO and Minions (started at 6pm) the first Friday to Saturday change,

 

IO

30.66

30.94 +0.009%

 

Minions

39.8

38.85 -2.36%

 

So just this data isn't enough to say wom isn't gonna be great.

Also, IO had Tuesday previews of $600,000 for the Fan Event screening according to deadline. http://deadline.com/2015/06/jurassic-world-inside-out-weekend-box-office-dope-1201448898/

 

It's true Friday was at $30.06M.

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I think Minions will hold well this weekend 56-58, but it will tumble next weekend when Pixels arrive, they both appeal to the same audience.  

 

Why do some here expect Minions to have a step drop precisely in its third weekend? Third weekend drops for kids movies are almost always better than the second weekend drops.

 

Minions would have a solid third weekend (-40%) even with new competition. Anyways, Pixels is hardly direct competition for Minions. Different audiences

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While studios want their movies to reach that important $100M milestone (advantageous in cable TV rights?), do they realize they are also giving up higher percentage of the gross revenue to the theaters as the movies play on?

Certainly. But less money > no money. And it's not like it's playing on the biggest screens. They take a smaller slice of a shrinking gross just to cross that milestone.

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