MARY POPPINS RETURNS | Disney | 12.19.18 | Rob Marshall directing | Emily Blunt, Lin Manuel Miranda

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, 75Live said:

first poster   

 

Gotta love the Disney marketing machine. The odds of it just being a coincidence that one of GotG2's most memorable jokes references Poppins the year before this comes out are probably slim to none. 

[a2k]

If this over-performs then predictions for TLK will go even higher. Atm looks like MPR, Grinch, WiR2, AQM and FB2 will be the top-5 holiday films but there are always surprises (in any order), bo is hardly predictable...

Edited March 6, 2018 by a2knet

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, a2knet said:

If this over-performs then predictions for TLK will go even higher. Atm looks like MPR, Grinch, WiR2, AQM and FB2 will be the top-5 holiday films but there are always surprises (in any order), bo is hardly predictable...

Still think TLK is rife with potential to underperform the expectations here. That's the movie with absurd expectations, imo. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see a very similar gross DOM between the two (400-450).

Edited March 6, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Avatree]

18 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I think the one thing that makes me hesitant on this making $300M+ is that, when compared to Disney's recent fantasy films that made $300M+, there doesn't seem to be anywhere near as strong of a hook.

 

Alice in Wonderland came out when Johnny Depp was at his peak of popularity, it was the first time since 101 Dalmatians Disney brought one of their famous animated films with a live-action spin (I know it's not actually a remake of the animated film, but it sold itself like that), and arrived as the first major 3D event film since Avatar, which breathed new life into the format.

 

The Jungle Book sold itself on its groundbreaking visuals, which was hammered down people's throats, and the marketing heavily pushed the film as being something that needed to be seen in 3D and IMAX. It also had critical acclaim.

 

Beauty and the Beast was capitalizing on 90s nostalgia, which is extremely potent (kids who watched the animated movie have kids of their own, or want to recapture something they love), and it also had Emma Watson playing another Hermione-esque character, which gave it a lot of appeal from kids, adults, and teens.

 

Mary Poppins Returns has none of that. Emily Blunt isn't a big name like Depp, it won't have awards-worthy visuals, I'm not sure if it'll even have 3D, and while it's still popular with the kids, it doesn't have the same kind of 90s nostalgia power that something like Beast, Aladdin, or Lion King had or will have. It'll likely fit in somewhere around $250M, and I think we should be happy with that number.

Johnny Depp is not a big box office draw, never has been. He had hits with Pirates as Jack Sparrow, and nothing else. Kind of like how Robert Downey Jr is the biggest movie star in the world except people only watch his Iron Man.

 

2010 was the "peak of Johnny Depps popularity"? Alice was coming off Depp's box office smash hit Dr Parnassus which grossed a mighty 7.7 million. Public Enemies and Sweeney Todd were both bombs as well.

 

 

What exactly was Beauty and the Beasts' "hook"? It has the same appeal as any other live action fairy tale

 

Edited March 6, 2018 by Treeing Me Apart

[a2k]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Still think TLK is rife with potential to underperform. That's the movie with absurd expectations, imo. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see a very similar gross DOM between the two (400-450).

i agree that compared to expectations on our forums TLK could under-perform. but i feel that way cause expectations are 600+. don't think TLK can go sub-450. could end up around dory and batb and still invite meltdowns.

[Joel M]

If this has Jungle Book reviews/WOM mayyybe its going slightly over 300m at best. But the 400m DOM and 1 billion WW predictions are completely insane imo.

[MovieMan89]

14 minutes ago, a2knet said:

i agree that compared to expectations on our forums TLK could under-perform. but i feel that way cause expectations are 600+. don't think TLK can go sub-450. could end up around dory and batb and still invite meltdowns.

TLK is the only movie I've ever seen most on the forum predict 600+ for besides TLJ. Which at least made sense for TLJ, and even then it almost missed. 

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

TLK is the only movie I've ever seen most on the forum predict 600+ for besides TLJ. Which at least made sense for TLJ, and even then it almost missed. 

No idea where TLK will head, as it is still to far out.

No Teaser, No Trailer, no idea how close to the story it stays. No Picture.

Right now I would say anything between $250M and $750M+ is possible.

Because they could totally f*ck this up or they create the perfect storm and the original TLK adjust to $685M ($818Mm with rerelease) and Beyonce is in it, etc, it is released 19th July so mid of Summer, it is a Disney Live action, but before a Teaser/Trailer I have no idea how high this will gross.

[dudalb]

2 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

I think the one thing that makes me hesitant on this making $300M+ is that, when compared to Disney's recent fantasy films that made $300M+, there doesn't seem to be anywhere near as strong of a hook.

 

Alice in Wonderland came out when Johnny Depp was at his peak of popularity, it was the first time since 101 Dalmatians Disney brought one of their famous animated films with a live-action spin (I know it's not actually a remake of the animated film, but it sold itself like that), and arrived as the first major 3D event film since Avatar, which breathed new life into the format.

 

The Jungle Book sold itself on its groundbreaking visuals, which was hammered down people's throats, and the marketing heavily pushed the film as being something that needed to be seen in 3D and IMAX. It also had critical acclaim.

 

Beauty and the Beast was capitalizing on 90s nostalgia, which is extremely potent (kids who watched the animated movie have kids of their own, or want to recapture something they love), and it also had Emma Watson playing another Hermione-esque character, which gave it a lot of appeal from kids, adults, and teens.

 

Mary Poppins Returns has none of that. Emily Blunt isn't a big name like Depp, it won't have awards-worthy visuals, I'm not sure if it'll even have 3D, and while it's still popular with the kids, it doesn't have the same kind of 90s nostalgia power that something like Beast, Aladdin, or Lion King had or will have. It'll likely fit in somewhere around $250M, and I think we should be happy with that number.

Mary Poppins is a pretty big hook by  herself.....

It's is a sequel to one of Disney's most popular and iconic films.

I just don't get why people find this hard to understand.

It's a film that people saw as kids and are now watching with their grandkids.

This is a good example of the  myopia about this film.

Of course, I also suspect we have the "Except for Star Wars, I don't care about any movie made before 1990" syndrome that is, sadly, so common.

[dudalb]

2 hours ago, Joel M said:

If this has Jungle Book reviews/WOM mayyybe its going slightly over 300m at best. But the 400m DOM and 1 billion WW predictions are completely insane imo.

If the film is really well received, I think over 300 Million is possible.

 

[dudalb]

BTW I think the December film that is being wildly overpredicted it's the Animated Spidey film.

[La Binoche]

https://twitter.com/TheGregoryE/status/971099474897481728

[Chewy]

15 minutes ago, dudalb said:

BTW I think the December film that is being wildly overpredicted it's the Animated Spidey film.

 

Are people predicting big things for that? Usually see ~100-150M dom predicts

[Avatree]

5 minutes ago, Chewy said:

 

Are people predicting big things for that? Usually see ~100-150M dom predicts

which is about 100M too high.

[Chewy]

Yeah seems high to me but there's an Aquaman over 350 dom club with a lot of "in"s so comparatively speaking...

[The Futurist]

Can't believe Warner put 250m on an Aquabro movie.

 

[Barnack]

6 minutes ago, Treeing Me Apart said:

which is about 100M too high.

Spider-man + giant budget + Lord&Miller producing (they have yet to have their name on a below 100m entry and cloudy/Lego in animation did quite a bunch of money) + SH Genre + holiday release.

 

I think a Cloudy type performance domestic with a 30dbo/70inl split is a fair prediction here.

[Avatree]

3 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Can't believe Warner put 250m on an Aquabro movie.

 

aquaman is not a 250M production.

[Barnack]

5 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Can't believe Warner put 250m on an Aquabro movie.

 

Source ?

 

Wan, water and trying to do a Star Wars underwater ambition must all cost fortune, but I am unsure we will know the budget of an Canada/Australian shoot, they tend to stay mysterious (we never ended knowing Fury Road cost for example).

 

Would still be one of the safest movie of the year, give me a 250m Aquabro vs a 156m Deepwater Horizon movie risk wise (or well 95% of the movies out there)

Edited March 6, 2018 by Barnack

[MovieMan89]

20 minutes ago, Treeing Me Apart said:

which is about 100M too high.

You do realize how little it takes for a December kid's film to make 100 right? Spider-verse will have to open abysmally to miss it. Case and point: Alvin 4 and Ferdinand finished in the 80's with paltry OWs of 13m and 14m. And Spider-man has always been one of the most popular superheroes with little kids. Maybe the most. It should be good for at least 125, with LEGO Batman numbers being possible. Though this could certainly really cut into it, which is why I'll stick to the 125-150 range for Spider-verse. 

Edited March 6, 2018 by MovieMan89