Chasmmi's Winter Game - Grey Ghost is the WINNER!

[grey ghost]

31 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Congratulations Grey!

 

26 minutes ago, Infernus said:

Congrats Grey Ghost!! 

 

21 minutes ago, chasmmi said:

One more time I say well done to Mr. Ghost (and wrath too of course)

 

19 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

Congratulations, @grey ghost! And, of course, thanks to @chasmmi (and @JJ-8 and everyone else who helped calculate scores).

 

 

Thanks, guys!

 

See you in the Summer Game! 

[Wrath]

28 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

 

I think I won because of something as simple as Bridge of Spies making the top 15. 

 

So Hateful 8 flopping pretty much saved me. 

 

Congrats, Grey Ghost. Well played.

 

Yeah, I was pretty sure this was how it was going to turn out. I wasn't super confident of my math, but I was pretty sure I had you, albeit narrowly, until I realized that I'd called 12 of the 15 correct while you had 13 out of 15. 150k is a nice chunk of points if things are otherwise really close.

 

So, I think we can all agree that Tom Hanks is the real hero here.

Edited February 24, 2016 by Wrath

[chasmmi]

20 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

And here is how insidious this game is. My internal prediction for BOS was $75m. In other words, I nailed it. But because I foolishly predicted a couple of movies to go slightly higher, it finished #16 on my list.

 

Curse you, box-office gods!

 

 

On ‎10‎/‎09‎/‎2015 at 3:00 AM, Telemachos said:

 

Ironically, I was within 2 million of TOMORROWLAND's gross.... I just didn't think that would be enough to make the top 15.

 

Same ol' tele

[Plain Old Tele]

18 minutes ago, chasmmi said:

 

Same ol' tele

 

 

(edit: my memory is a bit wrong, I had it at 70m.)

[Wrath]

One thought for the future, and perhaps a rationalization for why I didn't really deserve to win but nearly managed to stupid my way to victory.

 

Last night I was doing some envelope math, comparing me, WrathofHan, Exxdee, grey ghost, and dark elf to see what my chances were, and by the end I was pretty sure it would come down to me and Grey Ghost (and I thought he'd win, but it was close enough that I still had some hope until Chasmmi ruthlessly crushed it).

 

But while doing the math on the WW numbers, two things really stood out:

 

#1 - grey ghost was totally crushing his predicts and was racking up a ton of points

 

#2 - I was hanging with him, entirely because I was stupid. I'll explain.

 

When putting in the WW predicts, I was confident in my ordering (that wasn't super hard), but I was really nervous about my dollar predicts for the top few. So I put in my predicts for most of them, but I decided to leave my top 2-3 dollar predicts blank for the time being, think about them some more and come up with numbers I was happier with. I then promptly forgot about it until, I think it was Spectre, came out, I went to check my predicts, and I realized I had forgotten to go back and fill in my dollar predict for it.

 

Spectre ended up dramatically underachieving WW (relatively to most folks predicts), while TFA overachieved WW (relative to most folks predicts). There are people who correctly predicted those two as being 1 and 2, yet lost 30-40+k points on each of them because their predicts were so far off. Since I had no dollar predicts, I had no chance of earning points by calling Spectre and TFA correctly.  For most movies, that would have really hurt me. But since those two diverged so wildly from what people expected, it actually saved me from potentially getting hit big (which is what happened to most people). I did the same thing with the top 2-3 top 15 domestic, and it helped me there, too (though it wasn't as big a deal there). 

 

Now that the thought occurs to me, its an attractive strategy for the top few DOM and WW movies. The middle and lower tier releases are fine. Very few people are going to miss Creed by enough to make it really sting, and the real competition is over who can get a bullseye. The top couple, on the other hand, are all about damage control. No one is going to nail, for example, Civil War's WW gross exactly (especially with China being weird), and even getting close enough to end up with positive points isn't a given. Now part of his is because TFA was *so* incredibly huge. But even under normal circumstances, the dollar bet on the top few might actually end up being a negative on average, and leaving it blank and essentially "abstaining" from the dollar guessing part might be a little too attractive if the movie is expected to be big enough.

 

Going forward, I propose that we make a slight change to the rules to discourage anyone from doing it intentionally in the future. Right now, the rule is that if you leave *all* of the dollar guesses from a section blank, its -50k points, but no penalty if you just forget 1 or 2. I propose we change it slightly to "If you forget to include dollar guesses, you will be penalized 10k per movie, to a maximum of -50k points per section."  50k max is fine, because if you forget to do dollar predicts on your #6-10 movies its going to bite you hard. Its only those top few where someone might be tempted. Because while 10k still isn't a big price to pay to avoid the penalty on a TFA, most movies aren't TFA. -10k basically means you're saying "I'm going to miss this, WW, by 150-200M" and that's a pretty bad miss even on a Civil Wars.

 

Edit - Another alternative would be to only penalize people who forget to put in dollar guesses for the top 2-3 movies in each category. Also, I originally thought it was MJ2 where I realized I'd made the mistake, but I think it was actually Spectre.

Edited February 24, 2016 by Wrath

[Plain Old Tele]

I like your reasoning, but I think we should be even stricter: you must put in dollar amounts for all predictions, otherwise you get hit with the -50K penalty.

[darkelf]

1 hour ago, chasmmi said:

One more time I say well done to Mr. Ghost (and wrath too of course)

 

I also make special mention of darkelf who has fallen to his worst final position of the last 3 games (2 winters and a summer) of 3rd place. Utterly disgraceful finish if you ask me  

 

Yeah, failing to unite the two titles is pretty disappointing, even more so since my arch-nemesis grim didn't play this winter. But considering how awful I did in the preseason questions, I'm satisfied

 

Congrats to grey ghost and Wrath, you truly bested me this time.

 

We'll meet again in the summer.

[Infernus]

What about just taking a no-predict as a 0$ predict? That way for the higher end movies where the player thus tried to save lots of points he'd correspondingly lose a lot, while for the lower tier movies where chances are more of the player having simply forgotten to put the numbers, and where he would not be attempting to save a lot anyway even if it was intentional, he'd correspondingly lose much lesser points (but he still will lose and moreso than anyone else).

But it'll still be just a -50k penalty on not attempting any of the grosses. For that means the player may have indeed just forgot to put the numbers at all. Also, that'd increase the excitement as the players will have a choice to either go for all or just take the -50k penalty as the safer path if they believe they might end up losing more the other way. (I for instance lost 141k in the Dom top 15 alone through my gross predictions)

Edited February 24, 2016 by Infernus

[DAJK]

I think I can say this comes from all of us, thank you @chasmmi for putting on this game again. It was great playing over these past few months and we're all looking forward to summer

[Plain Old Tele]

It's just my two cents, but all of that gets away from the core basic concept of the game: predict the dollar amounts for each movie (and correspondingly what order they'll be on the charts). It introduces more strategy in terms of "gaming the system"... which is fine, I suppose, but it's a different sort of game.

 

At least in my opinion.

[Infernus]

2 hours ago, chasmmi said:

Spoiler

 

 

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

What he hell is up with this shit ?!? Mc Donalds' in Japan started to get too crowded or something?

Edited February 24, 2016 by Infernus

[BadAtGender]

I've been thinking that it would make more sense if the scoring was percentage based for being off. So the negative hit for missing a billion dollar film by 100 million would be the same as missing a 100 million film by 10.

 

 

[That One Girl]

Can someone say when the summer preseason questions go up

[Wrath]

14 minutes ago, ThatOneGuy said:

Can someone say when the summer preseason questions go up

 

What, you haven't filled yours out yet???

[Wrath]

And, yes! Thank you to Chasmmi! For running this! 

 

Screw Tom Hanks!  The *real* hero here is Chasmmi! And apparently an assist to Jajang!

[JJ-8]

2 hours ago, Wrath said:

One thought for the future, and perhaps a rationalization for why I didn't really deserve to win but nearly managed to stupid my way to victory.

 

Last night I was doing some envelope math, comparing me, WrathofHan, Exxdee, grey ghost, and dark elf to see what my chances were, and by the end I was pretty sure it would come down to me and Grey Ghost (and I thought he'd win, but it was close enough that I still had some hope until Chasmmi ruthlessly crushed it).

 

But while doing the math on the WW numbers, two things really stood out:

 

#1 - grey ghost was totally crushing his predicts and was racking up a ton of points

 

#2 - I was hanging with him, entirely because I was stupid. I'll explain.

 

When putting in the WW predicts, I was confident in my ordering (that wasn't super hard), but I was really nervous about my dollar predicts for the top few. So I put in my predicts for most of them, but I decided to leave my top 2-3 dollar predicts blank for the time being, think about them some more and come up with numbers I was happier with. I then promptly forgot about it until, I think it was Spectre, came out, I went to check my predicts, and I realized I had forgotten to go back and fill in my dollar predict for it.

 

Spectre ended up dramatically underachieving WW (relatively to most folks predicts), while TFA overachieved WW (relative to most folks predicts). There are people who correctly predicted those two as being 1 and 2, yet lost 30-40+k points on each of them because their predicts were so far off. Since I had no dollar predicts, I had no chance of earning points by calling Spectre and TFA correctly.  For most movies, that would have really hurt me. But since those two diverged so wildly from what people expected, it actually saved me from potentially getting hit big (which is what happened to most people). I did the same thing with the top 2-3 top 15 domestic, and it helped me there, too (though it wasn't as big a deal there). 

 

Now that the thought occurs to me, its an attractive strategy for the top few DOM and WW movies. The middle and lower tier releases are fine. Very few people are going to miss Creed by enough to make it really sting, and the real competition is over who can get a bullseye. The top couple, on the other hand, are all about damage control. No one is going to nail, for example, Civil War's WW gross exactly (especially with China being weird), and even getting close enough to end up with positive points isn't a given. Now part of his is because TFA was *so* incredibly huge. But even under normal circumstances, the dollar bet on the top few might actually end up being a negative on average, and leaving it blank and essentially "abstaining" from the dollar guessing part might be a little too attractive if the movie is expected to be big enough.

 

Going forward, I propose that we make a slight change to the rules to discourage anyone from doing it intentionally in the future. Right now, the rule is that if you leave *all* of the dollar guesses from a section blank, its -50k points, but no penalty if you just forget 1 or 2. I propose we change it slightly to "If you forget to include dollar guesses, you will be penalized 10k per movie, to a maximum of -50k points per section."  50k max is fine, because if you forget to do dollar predicts on your #6-10 movies its going to bite you hard. Its only those top few where someone might be tempted. Because while 10k still isn't a big price to pay to avoid the penalty on a TFA, most movies aren't TFA. -10k basically means you're saying "I'm going to miss this, WW, by 150-200M" and that's a pretty bad miss even on a Civil Wars.

 

Edit - Another alternative would be to only penalize people who forget to put in dollar guesses for the top 2-3 movies in each category. Also, I originally thought it was MJ2 where I realized I'd made the mistake, but I think it was actually Spectre.

Actually your advantage was bigger than u realise. 

 

In in regards to TFA domestic, while everyone had it in #1, most were so far adrift the their score for TFA was -ve. In by not putting s gross u got the equal top score for TFA of 25k (I was the only other because I was also the closest) u got 25k for the position. I got 25k -10k (gross) + 10k (closest)

 

very big big advantage if we all way under or over predict a film like what's happened here. I'll check but I'm pretty sure the average for TFA was -ve. Meaning u got at least 30k boost on most players by putting no $ on this. 

 

In in saying that if someone had nailed (which I wasn't far away from) then they would scored like 60k. Still I think there should be a -ve like u say. -10k is option.

[JJ-8]

Oh and well done to grey ghost!

and everyone else in the ....

 

i I will post a few tables later breaking it all down. 

 

 

 

[grey ghost]

Props to Chasmmi, JJ-8 and everyone else who helped with crunching numbers and formulating questions.

 

The Winter Game ran like a machine!

 

[chasmmi]

Thanks for the kind words people and thanks all for playing. I will be back again in this thread in about 14 hours to give a few hints and details about what to expect come the summer time

 

Spoiler Alert - Post one is already written, it' just waiting until about March 20th to get itself posted

[Plain Old Tele]

March 20?

 

 

 

 

Oh shit....