Chasmmi's Winter Game - Grey Ghost is the WINNER!

[Wrath]

12 hours ago, Telemachos said:

Say that three times and you'll summon Cthulhu. 

 

Liar!

[chasmmi]

31 minutes ago, JJ-8 said:

now excuse me while i crawl back into my corner to begin considering how to best up new spreadsheets for the coming summer game... Chasmmi as his ingenious scoring systems just keep on getting more and more complex 

 

EDIT - @chasmmi i think give this a few more days in the main forum before moving it back to the sub forum....... 

 

Don't pretend to bitch and moan. We all know that you love your spreadsheets.

 

 

 

[chasmmi]

And yes we can move it to the sub forum at the end of the weekend to free up space for the Summer game thread

 

 

[Wrath]

1 hour ago, JJ-8 said:

BTW - you can see above quite obviously by not predicting the Total Grosses for the top 3 here, he did gain an advantage or did he given Grey Ghost outscored him on the Score (mostly to do with Grey Ghost predicting the grosses better.)

 

It is more obvious in the top 15 which is coming next......

Yeah. Its impossible to tell exactly what the impact was, but I'd guess that leaving those answers blank saved me an absolute minimum of 50k points and potentially as much as 80-100k. I didn't do badly on my gross predicts (if you knock, say, ~40k off my WW score, I'd still have come in around 6th on the grosses) but it would have been a serious longshot to think I'd have been one of the 3-4 people who managed to get positive scores on those.

[JJ-8]

3 minutes ago, Wrath said:

Yeah. Its impossible to tell exactly what the impact was, but I'd guess that leaving those answers blank saved me an absolute minimum of 50k points and potentially as much as 80-100k. I didn't do badly on my gross predicts (if you knock, say, ~40k off my WW score, I'd still have come in around 6th on the grosses) but it would have been a serious longshot to think I'd have been one of the 3-4 people who managed to get positive scores on those.

 

A perfect example was Star Wars... chances are your prediction for TFA back in October was about.... ?

 

your score for TFA = +25k

Now put in say a 700m Gross and suddenly that = -2k

if u'd put lower when u can guess where your gross would go.

 

Other movies, the impact wasn't as great but in regards to TFA, the impact was a lot more as there was a much higher chance of missing the gross by a large amount. you could put in Chasmmi's prediction of 550m and got a score of -18k... (well you get the picture)

 

anyway will chat with Chas about how we should deal going forward for the summer game.

 

 

[kayumanggi]

A huge thanks to @chasmmi, @JJ-8 and @laguy03. This was an awesome season.

[kayumanggi]

And congrats to @grey ghost and all the top scorers!

[BadAtGender]

Interesting. I managed a top 10 in the SOTMs, despite the fact I never felt like I had any good instincts for them. My whole strategy there was to try and prevent loss rather than going for any huge gain. Same thing with the pre-season questions, really.

 

What I find interesting is that I managed a pretty good score in the total grosses, but I was horrendously bad in the top 10 WW and top 15 DOM lists. Just eyeballing it, if I'd managed even close to the median in those two, I would have had another 300-600k points, which would have put me anywhere in the top 10 to the top 5.

 

Lesson to everyone: don't fuck you your lists like that, you'll torpedo your chances, even if you're doing great otherwise.

[Wrath]

12 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

Interesting. I managed a top 10 in the SOTMs, despite the fact I never felt like I had any good instincts for them. My whole strategy there was to try and prevent loss rather than going for any huge gain. Same thing with the pre-season questions, really.

 

What I find interesting is that I managed a pretty good score in the total grosses, but I was horrendously bad in the top 10 WW and top 15 DOM lists. Just eyeballing it, if I'd managed even close to the median in those two, I would have had another 300-600k points, which would have put me anywhere in the top 10 to the top 5.

 

Lesson to everyone: don't fuck you your lists like that, you'll torpedo your chances, even if you're doing great otherwise.

Loss-avoidance is my whole strategy with SotM's. I'll usually abstain right off the bat, just to be safe, and then I'll watch what other folks post and think about the question. If I decide there's an aspect to the question where I'm really confident I can get a positive score, then I'll go for just that part. But I never roll the dice or gamble big on them, and I'm totally happy abstaining if I can't see a way to be 80+% sure that I'll get a positive score.

 

However, sometimes getting positive scores is easier than you'd think. Like the Multiple SotM earlier. At first, I was like "I'm not touching that", but then I looked at some comparables and realized some of them had pretty tight ranged. And then narrowing the list down further, I could restrict myself to just predicting the multiples of movies with solid comparables, and that would only have ~3 weekends of grosses to go, AND that had already seen their opening weekends. As long as I stuck to stuff like that, its like shooting fish in a barrel. You're never 100%, but your odds of getting more points than abstaining are pretty good.

[BadAtGender]

2 minutes ago, Wrath said:

Loss-avoidance is my whole strategy with SotM's. I'll usually abstain right off the bat, just to be safe, and then I'll watch what other folks post and think about the question. If I decide there's an aspect to the question where I'm really confident I can get a positive score, then I'll go for just that part. But I never roll the dice or gamble big on them, and I'm totally happy abstaining if I can't see a way to be 80+% sure that I'll get a positive score.

 

However, sometimes getting positive scores is easier than you'd think. Like the Multiple SotM earlier. At first, I was like "I'm not touching that", but then I looked at some comparables and realized some of them had pretty tight ranged. And then narrowing the list down further, I could restrict myself to just predicting the multiples of movies with solid comparables, and that would only have ~3 weekends of grosses to go, AND that had already seen their opening weekends. As long as I stuck to stuff like that, its like shooting fish in a barrel. You're never 100%, but your odds of getting more points than abstaining are pretty good.

 

Yeah, that makes sense. The presentation of the SOTMs does make it seem like a suckers game if it were random, since the potential loss is usually much greater than the potential gain. But it isn't really random. I guess I just need to convince myself of that at the time of answering.

[Wrath]

5 hours ago, JJ-8 said:

 

A perfect example was Star Wars... chances are your prediction for TFA back in October was about.... ?

 

your score for TFA = +25k

Now put in say a 700m Gross and suddenly that = -2k

if u'd put lower when u can guess where your gross would go.

 

Other movies, the impact wasn't as great but in regards to TFA, the impact was a lot more as there was a much higher chance of missing the gross by a large amount. you could put in Chasmmi's prediction of 550m and got a score of -18k... (well you get the picture)

 

anyway will chat with Chas about how we should deal going forward for the summer game.

 

 

 

Absolutely. On the one hand, most movies aren't nearly as hard to predict as TFA, and anything below about 5th on the overall list is likely going to be tightly bounded enough that failing to guess will probably cost you points. On the other hand, every game there will probably be 2-4 movies high enough that folks will at least be considering whether its worth it to skip them and, IMO, the game should be about accurate prediction, not gaming the system. That having been said, I'm against changing the bands to % based. For some reason it makes me nervous and feels awkward, but I can't really articulate why.

 

I think Tele's flat -50k penalty for missing a dollar predict feels overly harsh, and its not really fair to screw someone who simply forgot a number. It will probably be quite a while before we see a movie gross enough that people can realistically lose 50k points on a single movie (ok, I'm sure someone will manage to do it, somehow, but it'll be the result of a *spectacularly* bad guess). Similarly, assigning someone a $0 or matching the worst predict anyone made on that movie also feels punitive. On the other hand, it should be harsh enough that people can't benefit from mistakes.

 

Lots of ways to fix it, as you probably know. Could fiddle with the bonus ranges or the penalty for falling outside the range as well as simply assigning a penalty. I'm curious to see what you decide to do.

[Plain Old Tele]

53 minutes ago, Wrath said:

I think Tele's flat -50k penalty for missing a dollar predict feels overly harsh

 

I know I'm probably beating a dead horse, but the very concept of the game was intended to force people to put dollar amounts on predictions. Baumer got sick and tired of people retroactively claiming they had predicted success (or failure) for a movie. He created the game so people had to put their money where their mouth was, metaphorically speaking; they had to make specific predictions that were publicly listed for all to see. It was a fun way to make people list predictions and be somewhat accountable to them. That's why not putting any amount (whether intentionally or not) feels antithetical to the very core of the game.

 

But that's just me, and I don't make the decisions regarding it.

[JJ-8]

Personally I'm all for scoring as if u entered 0m for that movie . But I know it's harsh. Lol

 

seriously I think -10k per movie u don't enter a gross for in the top 15 to a max of -50k. (So if enter no grosses at all u lose 50k . U would still get points for positions though. 

 

Similar for for other charts too.  (I.e. Worldwide, weekends etc. )

[BadAtGender]

1 minute ago, JJ-8 said:

Personally I'm all for scoring as if u entered 0m for that movie . But I know it's harsh. Lol

 

seriously I think -10k per movie u don't enter a gross for in the top 15 to a max of -50k. (So if enter no grosses at all u lose 50k . U would still get points for positions though. 

 

Similar for for other charts too.  (I.e. Worldwide, weekends etc. )

 

-10k per movie is fine, but only if you can't lose more by actually entering a score, even if it's wildly off. Leaving it blank needs to be the worst possible thing you can do, just to avoid strategically leaving it out.

[chasmmi]

To finish off the chat about the winter game and scoring, I will start off by commenting on how there is always a new thing that happens each summer/winter that creates new rules or scoring. In the past these have been Wednesday openers, Release Date moves, Frozen technically having an OW of 50,000 dollars, MOS' Walmart total, American Sniper, The Interview and more.

 

So with summer soon approaching, let it be known that:

 

* Dealing with predictions with no grosses has been dealt with (you won't find out how for another 3 weeks  ).

* Some brand new sections are being introduced that I hope y'all all will find quite damn exciting.

* Preseason gross predictions will have many more opportunities for scoring points when done well and getting a film wrong will hurt more than it currently does.

* Expect to see some of your favourite SOTM question types make a glorious return this summer  

* And much much more  

 

If anyone is feeling impatient, I don't intend to reveal any more information but it goes without saying that a top 15 Dom, 10 WW and 7 OW are going to continue to be a bedrock of preseason  

[JJ-8]

Righto... moving this back to the Games Forum.

 

@Telemachos - Can you rename the sub forum to the summer Game  To get everyone gee'd up that it's coming!

 

[Blankments]

Late on this, but congratulations, Grey Ghost!

[Plain Old Tele]

On 3/1/2016 at 5:33 AM, JJ-8 said:

Righto... moving this back to the Games Forum.

 

@Telemachos - Can you rename the sub forum to the summer Game  To get everyone gee'd up that it's coming!

 

 

I'll do it now... and @chasmmi, can you give me the dates the game will run? I'll update the description as soon as you send 'em.

[chasmmi]

1 hour ago, Telemachos said:

 

I'll do it now... and @chasmmi, can you give me the dates the game will run? I'll update the description as soon as you send 'em.

 

Game will run from April 29th to September 5th.

 

Preseason post will appear March 18~20th

[Kalo]

Man I totally fell out like the last month.. I keep always doing that