The Futurist Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Oscars are imossible to predict this year.Too many good movies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Stingray Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Just saw Argo. Pretty good movie, almost great, not amazing. Deserves to get nominated, not win.To anyone who's seen both Argo and ZD30, which do you think is better? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLK Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Huff Post's Oscar discussion. Very interesting comments about ZDT. Click on the link for extended discussion about Oscars. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-hogan/zero-dark-thirty-torture_b_2359240.html So that's all fun. The "Zero Dark Thirty" controversy, not so much. As someone who once edited this exposé on the atrocities committed in our name by CIA interrogators, I take the criticisms of director Kathryn Bigelow and screenwriter Mark Boal seriously. As the filmmaker Alex Gibney pointed out in this excellent blog for The Huffington Post, saying "it's just a movie" doesn't hold water when the movie in question is being sold as a quasi-journalistic narrative about very recent history. Watching the film, I chose to interpret it this way: it's being told through the eyes of one obsessive, damaged Agency investigator who would have waterboarded her own mother if it would have led to bin Laden. To her, the prohibition on "enhanced interrogation techniques" ("EIT" if you're nasty) probably did seem onerous, unjust and weaselly. And whereas Mark Strong's supervisor character comes off as a jerk, I thought he made a very valid point: Enough of this kinky shit with the detainees; find some targets and let's kill some terrorists! (Cue angry liberal reaction to the drone program, but war is, after all, hell.) But this isn't an art film; it's a major Hollywood production that is going to be seen by a LOT of Americans, and as such Bigelow and Boal probably had a responsibility to frame the debate better and at least acknowledge that a lot of people in the CIA and FBI felt these tactics were counterproductive and frankly disgraceful. Since they didn't do it, others are moving in to fill the void. And no, I don't think Oscar voters back a film that's being attacked from the left for being soft on torture. Especially when, as you mention, John McCain and the director of the CIA himself are joining the chorus. The deafening silence of those at Langley who presumably fed Boal all this information and think he got it right also raises an interesting question: Are they bound by their obligations as secret agents to stay in the shadows? Or did they sell Boal a bill of goods that they would never willingly defend in public? Or both? A number of articles have pointed out that the most disturbing thing about "Zero Dark Thirty" is the way the government and the military were able to use the film to broadcast a story they wanted told without worrying about all those journalistic hassles like accuracy and accountability. The fact that no one who helped Boal is coming forward speaks volumes; I'm just not quite sure what it says. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 (edited) Judgement day is here for Les Mis, we'll find out in 24 hours if it and its Oscar chances sink or swim. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't nervous. Edited December 25, 2012 by riczhang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Stingray Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Judgement day is here for Les Mis, we'll find out in 24 hours if it and its Oscar chances sink or swim. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't nervous.What happens within 24 hours? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 (edited) What happens within 24 hours?Movie opens, and we'll get a Cinemascore, BO estimates, GA reactions, and etc. If it disappoints here we can write an eulogy and say goodbye to it's BP Oscar. Edited December 25, 2012 by riczhang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Stingray Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Les Mis has a 73% rating on RT. I'd say its chances to win BP are all but dead. Imo its between Lincoln and ZD30 for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sims Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm honestly comfortable predicting Lincoln for the win at this point. Criticism of inaccuracies seems like it will be too much to overcome for ZD30. There are several other spoilers still with a nonzero chance (Les Mis, LOP, SLP, Argo, Django) but none of them seems like it has the numerous advantages held by Lincoln. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Stingray Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm honestly comfortable predicting Lincoln for the win at this point. Criticism of inaccuracies seems like it will be too much to overcome for ZD30. There are several other spoilers still with a nonzero chance (Les Mis, LOP, SLP, Argo, Django) but none of them seems like it has the numerous advantages held by Lincoln. Me too. But I'm predicting Bigelow for Best Director. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 (edited) Les Mis has a 73% rating on RT. I'd say its chances to win BP are all but dead. Imo its between Lincoln and ZD30 for sure.I refer you to Crash. Or if it manages 175+M DOM and 500+M WW, I think it'll be too big for the Academy not to reward. It'd be their highest grossing winner since ROTK. Edited December 25, 2012 by riczhang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeCee Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Les Mis has zero chance of winning. ZD30 seems to have problems. Lincoln looks like heading in as the favourite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Nevada Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Edited predictionsBest picture: LINCOLNBest actor: Daniel Day-Lewis for LINCOLNBest actress: Jessica Chastain for ZERO DARK THIRTYBest director: Steven Spielberg for LINCOLNBest supporting actor: Tommy Lee Jones for LINCOLNBest supporting actress: Anne Hathaway for LES MISERABLESBest original screenplay: DJANGO UNCHAINEDBest adapted screenplay: ARGOBest cinematography: LIFE OF PIBest editing: ARGOBest art direction: ANNA KARENINABest costumes: LES MISERABLESBest original score: LIFE OF PIBest original song: SKYFALLBest sound mixing: SKYFALLBest sound editing: SKYFALLBest makeup: LINCOLNBest sfx: LIFE OF PIBest animated film: FRANKENWEENIEBest foreign film: A ROYAL AFFAIRBest documentary: THE HOUSE I LIVE IN 5 Oscars: Lincoln3 Oscars: Life of Pi and Skyfall2 Oscars: Les Miserables and Argo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Stingray Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 (edited) Best Picture - LincolnBest Director - Kathryn BigelowBest Actor - Daniel Day-LewisBest Actress - Jessica ChastainBest Supporting Actor - Leonardo DiCaprioBest Supporting Actress - Anne HathawayBest Adapted Screenplay - Silver Linings PlaybookBest Original Screenplay - Django Unchained----------------------------------------------------------------Cinematography - Life of PiFilm Editing - Zero Dark ThirtyOriginal Score - LincolnOriginal Song - SkyfallSound Mixing - SkyfallSound Editing - Zero Dark ThirtyArt Direction - Les MiserablesVisual Effects - The AvengersCostume Design - Anna KareninaMakeup - LincolnLincoln - 4Zero Dark Thirty - 4Django Unchained - 2Les Miserables - 2Skyfall - 2 Edited December 25, 2012 by Don Calavera The Stingray Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Make-Up - LincolnBest Actress, Editing - Zero Dark ThirtyBest Supporting Actress - Les MisérablesBest Original Screenplay - Django UnchainedBest Cinematography, Original Score, Visual Effects - Life of PiBest Original Song, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing - SkyfallBest Art Direction, Costume Design - Anna KareninaBest Animated Film - FrankenweenieLincoln - 6Life of Pi - 3Skyfall - 3ZDT - 2Anna Karenina - 2Django - 1Les Mis - 1Frankenweenie - 1Most nominations without a win - Silver Linings Playbook (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and likely Actor), The Master (Picture, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Art Direction and maybe Actor). Unless the latter gets shut out in Picture, Art Direction and acting categories save for PSH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CloneWars Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I refer you to Crash. Or if it manages 175+M DOM and 500+M WW, I think it'll be too big for the Academy not to reward. It'd be their highest grossing winner since ROTK.Lincoln will have a sizable BO run once Oscars come around in February. Anyway, Lincoln BP and BD. No way Bigelow gets BD. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLK Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Latest BP odds from the British bookies. http://www.easyodds.com/sports-betting/tv-and-awards-betting/awards/oscars/outright/best-picture.htmlNo surprises as Lincoln is #1 with almost even odds. The only mild surprise for me is that Les Miz is beating ZDT for #2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Stingray Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 So many good movies and cool people are gonna get nominated this year that I might actually watch this one live, something I haven't done for the past 2-3 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Stingray Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 (edited) Its 2 or 3 in the AM when the show starts over here, so kind of hard to stay up all night. The thing is its because of the time zones. You know about the time zones? Well, I live in a different time zone, and the way the time zones work is that two different time zones also have different times; one is ahead or behind the other. Get it? If not, you can read more about the time zones here:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_zone Edited December 26, 2012 by Don Calavera The Stingray Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockNrollaDIM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 This is the least sure BP race we've had in years. It reminds me of this year's Republican primary nominations, new frontrunner every week! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Though the GOP nomination battle was a race to the bottom, with only Ron Paul and John Huntsman refusing to partake in those insanities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
