spizzer Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 On the legs front, I'm still sticking with 4.0-4.5 multiplier from Fri-Sun period (OW minus previews). At 238 with 4.0, that's 781M. At 250 with 4.5, that's 926M. What I'd LIKE is for it to top TPM's admissions, which would probably take ~880M. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Just now, spizzer said: On the legs front, I'm still sticking with 4.0-4.5 multiplier from Fri-Sun period (OW minus previews). At 238 with 4.0, that's 781M. At 250 with 4.5, that's 926M. What I'd LIKE is for it to top TPM's admissions, which would probably take ~880M. I think that's a great possibility. At the moment I am getting the feeling 900-950 is where it ends up, but I really hope I'm wrong because that would be brutal to get so close to 1b yet so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shruth Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I'm sorry if I'm being a killjoy but I feel that $850m domestic is the ceiling for this film. Not to say that this is bad or anything. Its still MINDBOGGLING and would be #11 all time adjusted and easily top 8 or top 7 in adjusted original run. But $850m looks like the cap. It seems more front loaded than usual and even with winter legs I don't see this pulling more than a 3.5 which brings it $850m exact. Plus once January comes I see this falling off and not making as much with the exception of MLK weekend. So I'm gonna say the domestic record is a lock, $780m+ is probable, $800m+ is possible and $850m is the ceiling. Unless this movie gets Oscar talk once awards season comes up hell this would hit $1 billion with a second wave of viewership lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 1 minute ago, spizzer said: On the legs front, I'm still sticking with 4.0-4.5 multiplier from Fri-Sun period (OW minus previews). At 238 with 4.0, that's 781M. At 250 with 4.5, that's 926M. What I'd LIKE is for it to top TPM's admissions, which would probably take ~880M. Thank you, I was wondering TPM adjusted number. 880m, that much ??? People tend forget how giant was Phantom Menace, this is gonna be tough to equal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 (edited) 3 minutes ago, The Futurist said: Thank you, I was wondering TPM adjusted number. 880m, that much ??? People tend forget how giant was Phantom Menace, this is gonna be tough to equal. That's not TPM adjusted to the average 2D price. That's how much TFA would have to gross with its current 3D/IMAX/PLF splits to hit the same amount of admissions. TPM adjusted for ONLY 2D price inflation is like ~660-690M. Edited December 21, 2015 by spizzer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 8 minutes ago, The Futurist said: The maths are pretty simple and I know a fairly "weak" multiplier sends already FA quite high. I am merely saying every movie has a limited reservoir and we don't know the size of the tank. But yeah, everything points to a historic run. Go JJ ! I am not sure there s even 10 Avatar apologists on this board, I sense so much passional hatred towards the blue people, its weird really. You've a valid point but I just don't see how it misses Avatar, now. Next weekend will be gangbusters, we already know Christmas Day was 3rd in presales after Thurs/Fri. I'm fully expecting 45-50M Friday and weekend of around 140M. Another 90-100M on New Years Weekend and add in weekdays, we're looking at 650M after New Years. It would only need another 100M from there which is pretty much guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyLL Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 1 hour ago, Baumer Fett said: No one here is saying 1 billion is in play. All I said is a reasonable multiplier based on several factors, is 3.5. But if it manages that elusive 4X, then a billion is in play....a lot of X factors there. I am 38 minutes ago, grey ghost said: Okay I see low multiplier (low for winter) predictions being thrown around, between 3.1-3.4. Is there any reason to believe this will have worse legs than the first Hobbit movie. The WOM seems damn good then you have strong reviews and fans watching it 3-6 times. Is there any eveidence that the legs will be weak or average for a winter blockbuster? No... there is not. The last 3 big Dec movies, The Hobbits, combined had a 3.8 multiplier That is the floor: 240m x 3.8 = 912m But The Hobbit movies were not movies that had fantastic WOM. You have to go back to Avatar (~9.7) and LORROK (~5.5) that had the same kind of fervor surrounding them. TFA is not going to have a 9+ multiplier. But 4.0 is ( 966M ), 4.5 is ( 1.08B ) , 5.0 is not unrealistic ( 1.2B ) People keep saying that these other movies like Avatar, Titanic, and LOTR were exceptional movies and that is why they had the amazing runs they had. Those same people are failing to see that TFA is also an exceptional movie and will continue to have an amazing run. My prediction of 850m is likely too low. Avatar is going down.... 1 Billion is in play. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 3 hours ago, Rth said: Intl some Sunday +/- FRA +21% AUS -1% UK/ITA -2% NZ -8% GER -14% SPN -23% Great WW OW record is a done deal as well. Probably finishes with 535M. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 As spizzer did, look at multi's minus previews. Previews are just for OW and SW7 had 57m of previews. I like the multi's that spizzer provided. But it could go lower as the OW is so big it will not behave like a typical december movie. I cant see it doing 20-30m per day throughout the holidays. That is just crazy. Demand will go down for sure. We will know for sure in next couple of days. its beating Avatar for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rthmessiah Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Sunday looking 59-62, may update later see how actual look tomorrow. 53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Just now, Rth said: Sunday looking 59-62, may update later see how actual look tomorrow. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 OMG OMG OMG YES!!!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 1 minute ago, Rth said: Sunday looking 59-62, may update later see how actual look tomorrow. Holy fucking shit. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biggestgeekever Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 1 minute ago, Rth said: Sunday looking 59-62, may update later see how actual look tomorrow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyLL Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 1 minute ago, Rth said: Sunday looking 59-62, may update later see how actual look tomorrow. Thanks @rth You know... taking the high end of your estimates plus 120 Fri comes up with a number people didn't think it could ever hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superduperm Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 3 minutes ago, Rth said: Sunday looking 59-62, may update later see how actual look tomorrow. Sunday record = obliterated 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecstasy Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 2 minutes ago, Rth said: Sunday looking 59-62, may update later see how actual look tomorrow. There goes another one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superduperm Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 1 minute ago, Darth AndyLL said: Thanks @rth You know... taking the high end of your estimates plus 120 Fri comes up with a number people didn't think it could ever hit If that ends up happening, I will remember this more than TDK's Sunday hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bladels Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 4 minutes ago, Rth said: Sunday looking 59-62, may update later see how actual look tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somebody85 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 5 minutes ago, Rth said: Sunday looking 59-62, may update later see how actual look tomorrow. God damn if that holds, this just keeps getting harder and harder for another movie to ever reach these heights again. Can't wait to see actuals 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
