Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | 1B WW

[John Rambo]

Any market where R1 is kinda close to TFA in terms of opening/admissions???

 

[keysersoze123]

15 minutes ago, John Rambo said:

Any market where R1 is kinda close to TFA in terms of opening/admissions???

 

 

 

I would think only china has a chance but I think it will fall short there as well looking at how dull the market has been this year.

[FantasticBeasts]

      Fantastic Beasts               Rogue One

UK:  18m                               21m

KOR: 14m                              

GER: 10m                             11m

RUS: 10m                              6m

FRA: 10m                             13,5m

AUS: 7m                               17m

ITA:  7m                               3m

MEX: 6m                               4m

JPN:                                     7m

BRZ: 6,6m                            5m

TOT: 88,6m                          87m

(I didn't find anything for RO in Brazil and Spain where FB did 6,5 and 4,5m respectively. Considering that TFA opened with 8m in both of those countries so my guess is that in Brazil, FB will be ahead by atleast 1m and in Spain it will be close but with tendency for FB)

 

I did a rough calculations about the comparison between RO and FB openings. I though that it would be a nice indication of where it will end. The calculations are far from 100% accurate so mistakes may be made and anyone wishing to point out some mistake is welcome. It seems that in those 9 big markets we have almost a tie. We still though have a lot of other markets but I think it's also fair to say that RO will end up at 130-150m range. It seems to me, that considering SW is more of a brand in big countries, RO will end up at the lowers of this range.

Edit: I updated the chart with nubers from Brazil

 

Edited December 18, 2016 by FantasticBeasts

[Fullbuster]

2 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

      Fantastic Beasts               Rogue One

UK:  18m                               21m

KOR: 14m                              

GER: 10m                             11m

RUS: 10m                              6m

FRA: 10m                             13,5m

AUS: 7m                               17m

ITA:  7m                               3m

MEX: 6m                               4m

JPN:                                     7m

TOT: 82m                             82m

(I didn't find anything for RO in Brazil and Spain where FB did 6,5 and 4,5m respectively. Considering that TFA opened with 8m in both of those countries so my guess is that in Brazil, FB will be ahead by atleast 1m and in Spain it will be close but with tendency for FB)

 

I did a rough calculations about the comparison between RO and FB openings. I though that it would be a nice indication of where it will end. The calculations are far from 100% accurate so mistakes may be made and anyone wishing to point out some mistake is welcome. It seems that in those 9 big markets we have almost a tie. We still though have a lot of other markets but I think it's also fair to say that RO will end up at 130-150m range. It seems to me, that considering SW is more of a brand in big countries, RO will end up at the lowers of this range.

 

 

Rogue One in Brazil benefits from an exchange rate that is around 15-20% better compared with SW7 so that could allow it to be slightly ahead of FB there.

[FantasticBeasts]

4 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Rogue One in Brazil benefits from an exchange rate that is around 15-20% better compared with SW7 so that could allow it to be slightly ahead of FB there.

Thank's for the definition.So TFA's openingw would be around 9.5m now. Still though the pattern seems like 50% decline of TFA. Am I doing the ath right?

[Fullbuster]

Just now, FantasticBeasts said:

Thank's for the definition.So TFA's openingw would be around 9.5m now. Still though the pattern seems like 50% decline of TFA. Am I doing the ath right?

 

Probably, I don't see it following a different trajectory in Brazil. With some luck and this better exchange rate we could expect -40% in USD

[FantasticBeasts]

2 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Probably, I don't see it following a different trajectory in Brazil. With some luck and this better exchange rate we could expect -40% in USD

Right but anyway this mustn't be able to pull FB's number cause that would be 30ish drop..

[TimmyRiggins]

7 hours ago, MattW said:

Yeah that definitely depends on China pulling off ~100m, but I think it will.

 

Having Donnie Yen & Wen Jiang (not in token roles either) can only help the film compared to TFA, I'd be surprised if it did less than TFA.

[Fullbuster]

4 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Right but anyway this mustn't be able to pull FB's number cause that would be 30ish drop..

 

FB is likely to stay ahead, indeed, but it's not impossible to do for Rogue One though. We'll know soon enough, Brazil had pretty impressive numbers and performances this year in local currency so who knows?

Edited December 18, 2016 by Fullbuster

[TigerPaw]

7 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

 

Having Donnie Yen & Wen Jiang (not in token roles either) can only help the film compared to TFA, I'd be surprised if it did less than TFA.

China's BO this year is bad, even many big films which were expected to do well.. bombed

[keysersoze123]

46 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

China's BO this year is bad, even many big films which were expected to do well.. bombed

 

Having seen R1 I dont see it play well in China despite the presence of Donnie Yen. Plus its release date is not great(post new year). I think it will struggle to hit 700m yuan.

[TigerPaw]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Having seen R1 I dont see it play well in China despite the presence of Donnie Yen. Plus its release date is not great(post new year). I think it will struggle to hit 700m yuan.

I think the release date is okay,  almost no huge competition with release date confirmed until CNY.

But right now rumours has it that xXx3: Return of Xander Cage... Starring Vin Diesel and Donnie Yen is rumoured to be on Jan 20th. 

Donnie Yen in Sci-fi is a big draw, but Donnie in an action thriller with Vin Diesel, that's a big competition. Hope xXx3 is pushed till Mid Feb.

[John Rambo]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

I would think only china has a chance but I think it will fall short there as well looking at how dull the market has been this year.

Yea pretty much dull this year compared to 2015! 2017s gonna be huge i guess no doubt

[Lordmandeep]

This really neeed around 500 to 525 million overseas to do a billion. 

 

 

[James]

6 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

This really neeed around 500 to 525 million overseas to do a billion. 

 

 

Unless China follows the rest of the world and massively drops from TFA (which it shouldn't), 525m should happen. I think 540-560m is where it will land. Of course, it depends on the holds, but it's as accurate a prediction as you can get from what we got so far.  

[Lordmandeep]

4 minutes ago, James said:

Unless China follows the rest of the world and massively drops from TFA (which it shouldn't), 525m should happen. I think 540-560m is where it will land. Of course, it depends on the holds, but it's as accurate a prediction as you can get from what we got so far.  

 

 

I sense a large decline overseas, I think SW8 will as well but with those massive domestic grosses (means a lot more profit ) I think Disney is fine. 

 

 

Unsure if by EP9 it could break out more in Asian markets but 8-9 will likely do 600 + domestic 

[James]

23 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

I sense a large decline overseas, I think SW8 will as well but with those massive domestic grosses (means a lot more profit ) I think Disney is fine. 

 

 

Unsure if by EP9 it could break out more in Asian markets but 8-9 will likely do 600 + domestic 

I said it before: people don't realize how much of a factor nostalgia was for TFA, DOM and OS. OS will drop for SW8 to TFA just as JW2 will drop a lot from JW. I see SW8 around 750-800m OS. Also, R1 is looking to have an even bigger share of the WW gross coming from DOM than TFA had. I wonder if EP8 will continue that trend.

[Grand Moff]

I think we will do 1.6 billion worldwide.

[James]

Just now, Grand Moff said:

I think we will do 1.6 billion worldwide.

What's your DOM/OS breakdown?

[peludo]

1 minute ago, James said:

I said it before: people don't realize how much of a factor nostalgia was for TFA, DOM and OS. OS will drop for SW8 to TFA just as JW2 will drop a lot from JW. I see SW8 around 750-800m OS. Also, R1 is looking to have an even bigger share of the WW gross coming from DOM than TFA had. I wonder if EP8 will continue that trend.

Agreed. People should look at Empire Strikes Back and Attack of the Clones to determine how much SW8 will make. Both dropped big, independently of the quality/reception of their predecessors and themselves. Around 600/800/1.4b seems likely. Maybe a bit more DOM, but nothing close to TFA.