Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | 1B WW

[peludo]

38 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I agree with your points and I made it clear that Lotr did way better than Hobbit with adjustment. However, I think it's worth considering that SW is at its peak right now. So anything SW-related generates immense buzz. On the contrary, FB for example was released 5 years after the end of HP. The pottermania was far more calmed that it was at late 00's to early 10's...I think it's fair to say that FB would have made much better numbers (close to a billion) If it was released at 2012 let's say.

Fixed

 

Probably FB would have done more in 2012 than today, but it is BO-fiction. We can speculate as much as we want but nothing will be real excepting the data. I insist that I think the Star Wars Universe has now more similarities with MCU than with LOTR or Potter. I have not seen people complaining because Thor 2, Winter Soldier or GotG did a 50% or even less than Avengers gross during the Marvel's peak. People thought they did well or even really well. You can not immediately asume that if the main film of the franchise makes an amount, then every film that comes after that must make the same or something close. That is a bit cheat argument. You can not simply say this is Star Wars, this must be a behemmoth. Some perspective is needed. A (possible) billion for absolutely unknown characters is big, no matters how you look at it.

[FantasticBeasts]

1 minute ago, peludo said:

Fixed

 

Probably FB would have done more in 2012 than today, but it is BO-fiction. We can speculate as much as we want but nothing will be real excepting the data. I insist that I think the Star Wars Universe has now more similarities with MCU than with LOTR or Potter. I have not seen people complaining because Thor 2, Winter Soldier or GotG did a 50% or even less than Avengers gross during the Marvel's peak. People thought they did well or even really well. You can not immediately asume that if the main film of the franchise makes an amount, then every film that comes after that must make the same or something close. That is a bit cheat argument. You can not simply say this is Star Wars, this must be a behemmoth. Some perspective is needed. A (possible) billion for absolutely unknown characters is big, no matters how you look at it.

I think that what I am saying makes perfect sense. Those who watched FB now were pure hard-core fans. In 2012 when buzz from HP was still huge there would have been much more people willing to see this. Its just logic...

[Agafin]

1 hour ago, FantasticBeasts said:

No noone expected this to be in the same level as TFA. However, spin-offs when coming from franchises with strong fanbase usually do reasonably well. It is not common to see a franchise with more than 50% drop from the film its coming from. For example, Hobbit did extremely well and with adjustment included although it did less than Lotr it still didn't fell that much. (In actual grosses it even did better). Also, Fantastic Beasts is on par for a 750-800m finish which is almost close to same low HP movies' grosses and something like 30% less from DH2 OS If you adjust it to todays ER. I think that RO's performance will be intresting to the point that we will see that TFA's gross was somehow "inflated". It is my belief,  there was a ton of people who even saw it without having ever watched a SW movie. And an even bigger number from people who saw a SW movie in theaters for the first time. In other words, SW's power in OS markets at leat shouldn't be measured by TFA's numbers because that was a cultural phenomenom with huge marketing campaign that got people who weren't highly intrested see it. I believe that if you want to rank franchises in OS markets, you should probably place SW slightly after Lotr and HP...

All in all, RO's performance is far from a disapointment but it goes to saw that SW is not JUST TFA...

 

Sorry but The Hobbit is not merely a "spin-off" to the LOTR. It is its own book and was massively popular in its own right selling over 100 million copies. In fact, if I'm not mistaken, the Hobbit book has sold more copies than LOTR. So people going in already knew what they were in for unlike RO which is purely a side story in the SW universe. There is simply no comparison between the two.

 

As for FB, it is very disingenous to say that it has had a comparable gross to HP movies. The only one it is going to approach is POA, and that was released more than a decade ago so inflation makes this comparaison moot. By that same logic, you could say that RO is going to obliterate every SW movie ever, besides TFA. That's true right? But does it really mean anything when the most recent of those movies (ROTS) is more than a decade old?

 

Adjusting for ER, HP8 grossed about  $790m OS. China's BO has increased by a factor of about 4 since 2011. Excluding China from its OS gross, we get about  $730m. FB will end up grossing about $540m, OS, $453m OS-Ch. That means, it retained about 62% of DH2 OS-Ch adjusting for ER. Probably around 55% in terms of admissions considering inflation since 2011. As for China, FB is going to beat DH2 by about 50%. That is good, but again not particularly amazing when you take into account market growth. Marvel D list movies like Ant Man in 2015 have no problem grossing more than what The Avengers grossed in 2012.

 

So for RO's retention of TFA admissions to match FB retention of DH2 admissions in OS markets, it needs to sell about 55% of TFA's admissions. There is no sign so far that it is not going to do just that. In fact, I'm pretty sure that it is going to sell 60% of TFA tix based on current numbers. 

 

All in all, I think your whole analysis is pretty biased and until we get more numbers, you can't really say anything about RO's performance compared to FB. I do agree with you that TFA brought in a whole lot of new fans. But I think most of them will stay (we'll have to wait for SW8 to confirme that however).

Edited December 17, 2016 by Agafin
Typos

[peludo]

7 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I think that what I am saying makes perfect sense. Those who watched FB now were pure hard-core fans. In 2012 when buzz from HP was still huge there would have been much more people willing to see this. Its just logic...

We can debate this until the end of days, but it is already a conversation about FB, not Rogue One, so I do not think this is the best thread to do it  

 

By the way, Rogue One starts #1 in Spain, but that does not tells too much since #2 and #3 are on their third weekend... we will have to wait to know some real numbers.

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, peludo said:

Hobbit films did good, sure, but nothing close to LOTR. You are comparing actual grosses of films separated a decade, without taking into account expansion of new markets, inflation or even wide better ER conditions. The reality says that in, terms of admissions, Hobbit lost about a 40-45% of admissions relative lo LOTR.

- snip - for length

 

50 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Force Awakens was one of the biggest phenomenons we've ever seen though - especially in the US and the UK. 

It was the sequel to the most beloved trilogy of films in history - nobody ever thought they'd see the day. 

Its sequel can be the only one you can really compare this to. 

Look at Fantastic Beasts and how it's done compared to Harry Potter. 

It's different. Audience buy in is harder. Especially with families for Rogue One as it's so much darker than Awakens was. 

Rogue One is doing great. As did Fantastic Beasts. 

 

50 minutes ago, peludo said:

Fixed

Probably FB would have done more in 2012 than today, but it is BO-fiction. We can speculate as much as we want but nothing will be real excepting the data. I insist that I think the Star Wars Universe has now more similarities with MCU than with LOTR or Potter. I have not seen people complaining because Thor 2, Winter Soldier or GotG did a 50% or even less than Avengers gross during the Marvel's peak. People thought they did well or even really well. You can not immediately asume that if the main film of the franchise makes an amount, then every film that comes after that must make the same or something close. That is a bit cheat argument. You can not simply say this is Star Wars, this must be a behemmoth. Some perspective is needed. A (possible) billion for absolutely unknown characters is big, no matters how you look at it.

 

34 minutes ago, peludo said:

We can debate this until the end of days, but it is already a conversation about FB, not Rogue One, so I do not think this is the best thread to do it  

By the way, Rogue One starts #1 in Spain, but that does not tells too much since #2 and #3 are on their third weekend... we will have to wait to know some real numbers.

 

39 minutes ago, Agafin said:

Sorry but The Hobbit is not merely a "spin-off" to the LOTR. It is its own book and was massively popular in its own right selling over 100 million copies. In fact, if I'm not mistaken, the Hobbit book has sold more copies than LOTR. So people going in already knew what they were in for unlike RO which is purely a side story in the SW universe. There is simply no comparison between the two

- snip for length -.

 

 

I want to like  all these, but I ran out of likes 

 

 

About the SW 3.5 idea:

yes and no.

 

In the meaning of it being a side-story, like in book series, where it get named that way for time-line reasons: yes.

In the meaning of the main storyline (in a way Skywalker....): no

 

to add it as a 3.5 main story it has to have IMHO at least one of the lead characters out of the main story as an absolute clear / obvious lead character, or several in considerable supporting roles (what I call supporting roles, not cameos or bigger cameos as a general definition, I haven't seen the film yet). If not, in my POV, it makes it to a spin-of / additional material, see MCU like. Maybe spin-of isn't the correct term, an additional story with - for the main story - only side characters (beside some cameos maybe and ... ) Without the maybe cameos and... I wouldn't be surprised about an OS drop of 75% IF the story would even be the same kind of genre (space opera), but as that changed too... Not saying it will drop that much! 

IMHO based on the changed genre, some maybe unexpected details in the film, the older age skewing every heated discussion ... is premature, incl. we do not even have reports about any other details that can play into the final totals.

= it is possible it will do a lot more than it looks like for the moment, and it is still possible it can sink a bit more too. 

Too mayn details changed to be have even comparable data, IMHO they do not exist (a bit comparison in general we have per MCU, but released in other seasons, the idea of extra films and bigger films is more established for the GA,...)

Edited December 17, 2016 by terrestrial

[Aristis]

3 hours ago, terrestrial said:

I want to like  all these, but I ran out of likes 

That is possible?

 

Edit: It happened to me as well For the first time - is that new?

Edited December 17, 2016 by Aristis

[terrestrial]

6 hours ago, Aristis said:

That is possible?

 

yep, I can like 500 posts per day and managed this weekend the 2nd time since I have a gold account (since quite some time) to do that. I like it, when people deliver new titbits or big details, I like if someone takes the time to show comparisons, write down theatre sell out and... counts, audience reports,... or tries to show with reasoned, balanced posts alternative POVs... at a weekend like this, see the dom area = I am by far not the only one who ran out of likes.

Or a new member introduces himself/herself, makes a gif... for someone else...

I like a lot of posts e.g. of the lila members, Olive in different country's threads, peludo and Jason for exchange rates and also for their balanced posts in heated surroundings, efillisomething76 (I am so bad with names) and Quigley with so many country updates, POTUS in China, Heretic UK and dom, DeeCee AUS/NZ and dom, IndustriousAngel obviously (and some others there),... TalismanRings, Tele giving inside into his ~ insight experience, you too, so many people who provide, so many countries, specialised threads like HV details (DVD, Blu-Ray), tracking,...

Imagine some nice or funny posts... fan posts, I like for them showing pure happiness (again: also for films I do not like or am interested in) on a lively day there can be many posts per person, ...

I listed all those examples to give you a feel how fast that can add up 

 

See my signature, I like all news, including about films I personally do not even like (as long as it does not promote racism, intolerance, violence against others...) 

= I am a fan of the cinemas, and the movie business worldwide

= lots of interesting posts here at BOT (if I have the time - for the moment I have it still, will change latest with the new year, than my %$&§#& ankle should be healed enough to finally can work 80% again)

Edited December 17, 2016 by terrestrial

[terrestrial]

43 minutes ago, Aristis said:

That is possible?

 

Edit: It happened to me as well For the first time - is that new?

 

yeah, I can like again! 

 

no, it is not new, at least since the do the accounts there are the limits per account version 

 

You can see which account can do what here

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/store

 

scroll down to popular.. and click on any of them, see, go one step back,... the usual

 

or click on my signature with the link to the possibility to win a gift-card, in the first post are all account version's possibilities presented

 

(here the text with link, in case you use a mobile or your settings are to not see the signature)

Want to win a gift-card?  Beauty & Beast OW predictions

Edited December 17, 2016 by terrestrial

[Fullbuster]

Could someone give us the Brazilian numbers? I just know that it was the highest-grossing movie on Thursday.

It's weird not to have numbers for an important movie like that.

[John Marston]

Looks like it is holding better domestically than overseas. Shows how strong the brand is in America 

[Quigley]

do we even have OS Fri numbers?

[RobinHood26]

8 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said:

You mean that both Lotr and HP had ended by the time spinoffs came? Well I think this can only be seen as a advantage because both those franchises were far from their peak when the spinoffs were released. Talking for HP, it had been 5 years since the last movie and still doing such great numbers shows the loyalty of the fanbase. SW in addition, is currently at its peak popularity (at least for the 21st century) so anything releasd now has a huge advantage. I am really confident tthat if FB was released at 2012-13, it would have done close to a billion if not more...

 

No its the opposite. If a Fanatic Beasts film came out in-between Harry Potter 2 and 3 there is no way it does the same range.  fans had to wait and have been claiming.

 

If TFA didn't exist and never came out Rogue One would do 30% more OS and Domestic 

[John Marston]

7 hours ago, peludo said:

Fixed

 

Probably FB would have done more in 2012 than today, but it is BO-fiction. We can speculate as much as we want but nothing will be real excepting the data. I insist that I think the Star Wars Universe has now more similarities with MCU than with LOTR or Potter. I have not seen people complaining because Thor 2, Winter Soldier or GotG did a 50% or even less than Avengers gross during the Marvel's peak. People thought they did well or even really well. You can not immediately asume that if the main film of the franchise makes an amount, then every film that comes after that must make the same or something close. That is a bit cheat argument. You can not simply say this is Star Wars, this must be a behemmoth. Some perspective is needed. A (possible) billion for absolutely unknown characters is big, no matters how you look at it.

 

 

Also Hobbit I think could have done better if they had waited longer similar to Phantom Menace's gap. But they didn't do bad of course. 

[terrestrial]

6 hours ago, Quigley said:

do we even have OS Fri numbers?

I know I posted Italy's Friday, we see the Friday of Argentina with the difference between 1st day and the sum of day 1+2 (they have a rather unusual system) I think in Japan too. AUS? + NZ?, and UK I think rth corrected an estimate. Russia probably too, France we have the admissions for Friday at least (I posted them, so I remember)

Germany has some admission estimates at least.

I guess we could go through the threads and collect those

Edited December 18, 2016 by terrestrial

[Aristis]

The movie is great And in my opinion it gets better the longer it lasts.

 

Spoiler

The final is epic and I think it's an uncommon end for a Hollywood Blockbuster.

 

Towards the end it's getting more and more like a SW-Movie. It should have good WOM

[Apollo2xx]

Exactly. I feel that the first two acts were too slow-paced, but I think they were building up to culminate on the third act - which was indeed EPIC and will probably lead to good WOM and repeat viewings.

[MattW]

I'm expecting the OS take through Sunday to be around 110-120m based on the early reports.  It's low but I think still gives a strong chance at 600m total including china and south korea.

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, MattW said:

I'm expecting the OS take through Sunday to be around 110-120m based on the early reports.  It's low but I think still gives a strong chance at 600m total including china and south korea.

 

If opening weekend is really that low, and I believe it has opening everywhere except to China/SK? I really can't picture this getting to 600M OS, I am also doubting if China can pull off 100M.

[Agafin]

2 hours ago, MattW said:

I'm expecting the OS take through Sunday to be around 110-120m based on the early reports.  It's low but I think still gives a strong chance at 600m total including china and south korea.

I highly doubt it'll ne less than 150m

[MattW]

22 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

 

If opening weekend is really that low, and I believe it has opening everywhere except to China/SK? I really can't picture this getting to 600M OS, I am also doubting if China can pull off 100M.

Yeah that definitely depends on China pulling off ~100m, but I think it will.