Star Wars Tuesday - 37.3M (Tele/baumer bet for Wednesday drop is on page 24...much to learn one of them still has)

[blackspider]

13 minutes ago, ecstasy said:

LOL There are $57,000,000.00 reasons why people don't care about those other movie's previews.

 

Whenever any movie breaks records, there's always gonna be people knocking it. I don't think we've had a record breaker that shut everyone up since SM1.

Edited December 23, 2015 by blackspider

[spizzer]

15 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Do you think Christmas day is a lock for $50 million?

 

Nah, but pretty likely.  

[ecstasy]

1 minute ago, blackspider said:

 

Whenever any movie breaks records, there's always gonna be people knocking it. I don't we've had a record breaker that shut everyone up since SM1.

Way too many fan boys with personal agendas.

[BK007]

2 hours ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:

 

Sorry for the blunt obviousness, but it just goes to show how meaningless all of this is. Why should Friday even be counted as a weekend day? It certainly isn't one. Yet for the purposes of counting box-office, at some point it was determined that it should be included, and so it was. Movies didn't used to have midnight shows (the same day as release only as a technicality), and then at some point it was determined that they should be included, and so it was. Now we have preview shows that start on Thursday evening, and it's been decided that they'll be included, and so they are.

 

Everything else is just nitpicking, and for what real purpose? The only thing all this indicates is how release patterns are changing.

 

Baumer went full retard on redfirebird just now and people are only defending his non-point because it is Star Wars, a franchise most of the board can band together on. That's just hypocritical and, despite moderators and liked forum members agreeing on something, it does not mean it is right, nor does it mean, that a minority that can be hounded off the boards, deserve to be. Patting each other on the back is why progress stalls.

 

Your examples are pretty ridiculous. It has been counted as part of the weekend for decades. When comparing weekends going all the way back to perhaps the 70s or 80s or after they decided to track it, it has been the same. It's not like they used to only track Sat-Sun or Thu-Sun or whatnot. 

 

Midnights have always been included in the opening day as opposed to the day before. I think BOM were so anal about the Matrix or one of the Pirates movies opening before 12, and there was an announced preview gross, that they separated it out. And that's the thing, it's not the studios that keep records of all movies released, it's BOM, which no other site has yet received the same stature of influence. I'm glad they have pointed it out again because I never agreed any movie should have 10 or 11pm shows counted as OD, much less the 6 and 7pm's that have sprouted up.

 

If BOM hadn't taken a knock with its own internal strife, this bullshitting would not have got so out of hand. 

 

2 hours ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:

 

It doesn't really bother me, I just get surprised when people decide to arbitrarily parse the data to fit some defined system when it's all really nebulous to begin with. Mojo doesn't do the reporting, the studios give out the numbers. The studios get to call Friday part of a weekend. They decide to call May a summer month. They decide to allow Thursday night previews to be considered part of Friday's gross.

 

In this particular case, it seems odd to single Star Wars out because since it had shows round the clock, a solid chunk of them would've technically been within Friday (since they would've come after midnight). On the other hand, maybe some of the super-late Friday shows should've been called Saturday.

 

If you want to fight that fight, go ahead, I suppose. But the rest of the box-office world will basically just play the studio's game because at the end of the day, that's all we have.

 

Your SW fanboyism blinds you. It's not arbitrary and it's not the same as calling May a summer month or Friday a weekend, neither changes anything at all. 

 

Movies that open on Thursday are now being counted as opening on Friday, that's getting rid of a day of the week. That's bullshit. That's not arbitrary.

 

Super late Friday shows are not counted as Saturday's gross.

 

28 minutes ago, blackspider said:

I'll just put my .02 on this whole thing. There hasn't been one issue regarding the previews being counted towards Friday's gross since post-Aurora until now. And why is that? BD2, CF, AOU, MJ1 and JW all had the same advantages TFA did. They got showings before midnight too so why didn't people say their previews were unfair? TFA's demand was just higher than all of them and the grosses reflect that. If it had a midnight it still would've destroyed the record. Don't think otherwise.

 

There was shit given for BD2 as it was one of the first. But when no one took a stand and called them out on it, the studios adapted to outdo each other on a false record.

 

Previews have always been unfair, or rather, false is a more appropriate word. 

 

But the reason no one gave a shit for most of these movies is because none of them threatened to break a real record. 

 

90% of the people who saw it would have seen it on another day in its run, but that isn't the issue. The issue is that there is growing falseness of reporting and these records are getting more arbitrary, as Tele wants to call it, when every movie can simply change the paradigm. Look at the UK. Its previews are a joke. 6 day previews lumped into OW? What kind of bullshit is that? What's there to get excited about when the next movie can start at 5pm and break $150m OD? The chase for bigger numbers, bigger everything has led to this substandard quality of reporting. 

 

Also, I say 90% would have seen it on another day as generous. There is always a knock on effect. If the people who would've seen it on Thursday get pushed to Friday, then others get pushed/moved and so on, so forth. There are a lot of die-hards but there are also many people roped in, and there is significant chance to lose a percentage when you move dates and times etc. I never saw TDK or Jurassic World in the cinema because after missing OW, the days never worked out. During Christmas is an even bigger chance of holidays and etc affecting schedules. 

 

26 minutes ago, B J said:

5 days h8tas

 

gitesh bout to join the shit list

 

When movies you dislike or the forum dislikes are doing this, you'll be up in arms. Bias can fuck off. He is reporting the truth, sorry it doesn't fit into SW fanboy narratives. Nothing like fanboys to make all intelligent and worthwhile discussion secondary to arrogant fantasies. 

[department store basement]

47 minutes ago, Chewy said:

This is a Star Wars fansite

 

http://www.rebelscum.com/

 

They didn't think this through...

 

It's completely intentional, just like penisland.net or ferrethandjobs.com

[Jandrew]

22 minutes ago, ecstasy said:

Way too many fan boys with personal agendas.

 

Which is funny considering theyre gonna make like $0.00 off the movie. Yeah Batman is the biggest whatever of all time, but how is that going to help you in life, yafeel?

 

 

[AndyLL]

Didn't quote your rants toward Baumer and Tele but it sure seemed you were agreeing with them as you were ripping them?

 

I take that back.  You are arguing that before 12 previews should not be counted towards Friday.

 

Ridiculous.  

 

If you argue that then you have to argue that midnights don't count toward opening day... the business day doesn't start until 6.

 

It's arbitrary.

 

The studios decide what is opening day

The studios decide what is opening weekend

The studios decide what is a weekend

The studios decide what is a season

 

Not some OCD fanboy that thinks that 24 hour days, 7 days in a week have any influence on Accounting which is what this comes down to

 

 

 

16 minutes ago, BK007 said:

 

When movies you dislike or the forum dislikes are doing this, you'll be up in arms. Bias can fuck off. He is reporting the truth, sorry it doesn't fit into SW fanboy narratives. Nothing like fanboys to make all intelligent and worthwhile discussion secondary to arrogant fantasies. 

 

LOL - The SW fanboys have been more correct then the industry so far.

[spizzer]

Strongly considering doing a sellout chart for Christmas Day.  I'm going to do a preliminary scan today/tomorrow and see if its worth it.

[blackspider]

@BK007 I get what you're saying. But I know you can't tell me with a straight face that TFA wouldn't have broken the record if it started at midnight. People have done the math on it, starting at 7 pm actually doesn't add much in terms of showtimes. It went into 5-6 am showtimes because demand was high, so did DH2. At the end of the day, a movie can only play with the hand it is dealt. TFA has played its hand better than anyone else and that's why people are bitching.

[Jandrew]

Hey department store basement, thanks for the like, but why the hell is your name department store basement?...

 

is this a movie reference im missing lol?

[B J]

18 minutes ago, BK007 said:

 

Baumer went full retard on redfirebird just now and people are only defending his non-point because it is Star Wars, a franchise most of the board can band together on. That's just hypocritical and, despite moderators and liked forum members agreeing on something, it does not mean it is right, nor does it mean, that a minority that can be hounded off the boards, deserve to be. Patting each other on the back is why progress stalls.

 

Your examples are pretty ridiculous. It has been counted as part of the weekend for decades. When comparing weekends going all the way back to perhaps the 70s or 80s or after they decided to track it, it has been the same. It's not like they used to only track Sat-Sun or Thu-Sun or whatnot. 

 

Midnights have always been included in the opening day as opposed to the day before. I think BOM were so anal about the Matrix or one of the Pirates movies opening before 12, and there was an announced preview gross, that they separated it out. And that's the thing, it's not the studios that keep records of all movies released, it's BOM, which no other site has yet received the same stature of influence. I'm glad they have pointed it out again because I never agreed any movie should have 10 or 11pm shows counted as OD, much less the 6 and 7pm's that have sprouted up.

 

If BOM hadn't taken a knock with its own internal strife, this bullshitting would not have got so out of hand. 

 

 

Your SW fanboyism blinds you. It's not arbitrary and it's not the same as calling May a summer month or Friday a weekend, neither changes anything at all. 

 

Movies that open on Thursday are now being counted as opening on Friday, that's getting rid of a day of the week. That's bullshit. That's not arbitrary.

 

Super late Friday shows are not counted as Saturday's gross.

 

 

There was shit given for BD2 as it was one of the first. But when no one took a stand and called them out on it, the studios adapted to outdo each other on a false record.

 

Previews have always been unfair, or rather, false is a more appropriate word. 

 

But the reason no one gave a shit for most of these movies is because none of them threatened to break a real record. 

 

90% of the people who saw it would have seen it on another day in its run, but that isn't the issue. The issue is that there is growing falseness of reporting and these records are getting more arbitrary, as Tele wants to call it, when every movie can simply change the paradigm. Look at the UK. Its previews are a joke. 6 day previews lumped into OW? What kind of bullshit is that? What's there to get excited about when the next movie can start at 5pm and break $150m OD? The chase for bigger numbers, bigger everything has led to this substandard quality of reporting. 

 

Also, I say 90% would have seen it on another day as generous. There is always a knock on effect. If the people who would've seen it on Thursday get pushed to Friday, then others get pushed/moved and so on, so forth. There are a lot of die-hards but there are also many people roped in, and there is significant chance to lose a percentage when you move dates and times etc. I never saw TDK or Jurassic World in the cinema because after missing OW, the days never worked out. During Christmas is an even bigger chance of holidays and etc affecting schedules. 

 

 

When movies you dislike or the forum dislikes are doing this, you'll be up in arms. Bias can fuck off. He is reporting the truth, sorry it doesn't fit into SW fanboy narratives. Nothing like fanboys to make all intelligent and worthwhile discussion secondary to arrogant fantasies. 

Thats not even close to my M.O., you can read through all 2000 posts.

Edited December 23, 2015 by B J

[Orestes]

3 minutes ago, jandrew said:

 

Which is funny considering theyre gonna make like $0.00 off the movie. Yeah Batman is the biggest whatever of all time, but how is that going to help you in life, yafeel?

 

 

 

That's so weirdly reductive, and it invalidates most of the discussion on this board, fanboys or no. How many people here make any money off any of the box office performances we talk about?

[acetabulum7]

5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Down from Monday? What an epic flop.

 

The Force Afloppens.

[tokila]

Not really seeing a clear way it makes 1 billion I did a version of my model with what I see as best case scenarios while remaining realistic.

Week over week drops from previous, Fri-Thur

Week 2- 36%

Week 3- 41%

Week 4- 49%

Week 5- 25% (MLK)

Week 6- 53% (falloff from MLK bump)

Week 7- 37%

 

Too me those drops are super generous, especially in Jan when the weekends will have to be extra large to make up for smaller weekdays.

The end of week 7, Feb 4, the total would be at 943mil. I even assumed for feb 20% week over week drops and it still only got to about 965mil before it was making a negligible take. 

 

The only way I see it making 1 billion is we get over 160 million this weekend and next week's drop % from the weekend are similar to this weeks. If that happens and January acts like this scenario, we may be in Puerto Rico range in late Feb. 

 

[dxmatrixdt]

the sounds of crumbling from 40 million down

[Claire of Themyscira]

22 minutes ago, BK007 said:

Baumer went full retard on redfirebird just now and people are only defending his non-point because it is Star Wars, a franchise most of the board can band together on. That's just hypocritical and, despite moderators and liked forum members agreeing on something, it does not mean it is right, nor does it mean, that a minority that can be hounded off the boards, deserve to be. Patting each other on the back is why progress stalls.

 

Your examples are pretty ridiculous. It has been counted as part of the weekend for decades. When comparing weekends going all the way back to perhaps the 70s or 80s or after they decided to track it, it has been the same. It's not like they used to only track Sat-Sun or Thu-Sun or whatnot. 

 

Midnights have always been included in the opening day as opposed to the day before. I think BOM were so anal about the Matrix or one of the Pirates movies opening before 12, and there was an announced preview gross, that they separated it out. And that's the thing, it's not the studios that keep records of all movies released, it's BOM, which no other site has yet received the same stature of influence. I'm glad they have pointed it out again because I never agreed any movie should have 10 or 11pm shows counted as OD, much less the 6 and 7pm's that have sprouted up.

 

If BOM hadn't taken a knock with its own internal strife, this bullshitting would not have got so out of hand. 

 

Your SW fanboyism blinds you. It's not arbitrary and it's not the same as calling May a summer month or Friday a weekend, neither changes anything at all. 

 

Movies that open on Thursday are now being counted as opening on Friday, that's getting rid of a day of the week. That's bullshit. That's not arbitrary.

 

Super late Friday shows are not counted as Saturday's gross.

 

There was shit given for BD2 as it was one of the first. But when no one took a stand and called them out on it, the studios adapted to outdo each other on a false record.

 

Previews have always been unfair, or rather, false is a more appropriate word. 

 

But the reason no one gave a shit for most of these movies is because none of them threatened to break a real record. 

 

90% of the people who saw it would have seen it on another day in its run, but that isn't the issue. The issue is that there is growing falseness of reporting and these records are getting more arbitrary, as Tele wants to call it, when every movie can simply change the paradigm. Look at the UK. Its previews are a joke. 6 day previews lumped into OW? What kind of bullshit is that? What's there to get excited about when the next movie can start at 5pm and break $150m OD? The chase for bigger numbers, bigger everything has led to this substandard quality of reporting. 

 

Also, I say 90% would have seen it on another day as generous. There is always a knock on effect. If the people who would've seen it on Thursday get pushed to Friday, then others get pushed/moved and so on, so forth. There are a lot of die-hards but there are also many people roped in, and there is significant chance to lose a percentage when you move dates and times etc. I never saw TDK or Jurassic World in the cinema because after missing OW, the days never worked out. During Christmas is an even bigger chance of holidays and etc., affecting schedules. 

 

When movies you dislike or the forum dislikes are doing this, you'll be up in arms. Bias can fuck off. He is reporting the truth, sorry it doesn't fit into SW fanboy narratives. Nothing like fanboys to make all intelligent and worthwhile discussion secondary to arrogant fantasies. 

[ecstasy]

24 minutes ago, jandrew said:

 

Which is funny considering theyre gonna make like $0.00 off the movie. Yeah Batman is the biggest whatever of all time, but how is that going to help you in life, yafeel?

 

 

 

It's just something to feel passionate about. Like people's favorite sports teams. It's all fun.

[terrestrial]

4 hours ago, doublejack said:

 

Uh, no. TFA did not sell over 100M in any 24 hour period. It made 57M in previews on Thursday, so the actual Friday haul was something like 62M. There's no 24 hour period with 100M there. You're looking at more like 30 hours.

 

It got reported it made $100m within a ~ 19h time-frame. They did not name the time-frame details.

 

My 2ct about previews... see beneath

 

3 hours ago, Tau Ceti said:

I'm going to flock to the dark side for a second and agree with the minority: by definition 30 hours is not a single day. For all intents and purposes TFA opened on Dec 17. I don't know how to logically view it otherwise.

 

That's IMHO too simple, as it started too late in the day for that.

 

3 hours ago, DarthArachnid!™ said:

 

So the interest was there, they just didn't have the supply to meet the demand so the sales were obviously way less and had less of an impact on the total preview numbers. 

 

Still makes little sense that those organizing these marathons would not see the benefit to their pocketbooks by adding more showings or at least as many as AOU. That's if the demand was there and I would think it would be. You're basically telling me that they made 248m on OW and left money on the table. 

 

 

Not about the marathons, but the OW:

AMC people said, they could have made 30% more with reserved seatings. I forgot the exact formulations, but I think a really big lot of people turned around when realizing the long lines.

Also a lot of articles mentioned how e.g. Disney tried to get the message to people about there are still tickets to buy, it seems a lot of people heard the news about sell outs and so on and didn't even try to watch it during OW.

 

My 2ct about previews... see beneath

 

2 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Hello everyone! This is my first comment ever in the forum. I've always been interested in BO stuff but never signed up, just observed. Glad to be here. 

Ok I can do this....

I say a $200m plus second weekend is 100% impossible. One thing this film will run into quicker than most December releases is the law of large numbers. Due to this I don't think it will hold like most do. The number of eyes available who want to see it will be filled faster than say an Avatar or ROTK. That being said, I do think it's going to best Avatar's domestic total, I just don't think it's going to keep up these enormous holds much longer (I'm not a hater I promise! This is my 2nd favorite SW movie and #1 movie of the year!!). I'm pegging the 2nd weekend at $133 million  

 

And I agree, I think they forgot the preview Thursday to exclude in their calculation model.

 

My 2ct about previews:

At a normal non opening day, all shows between midnight and 6:00 o'clock get count as the day before.

Opening day's at the time as the previews were starting at midnight:

that rule didn't count, then it was added to the OD too.

SW 7 had a lot of showings between midnight and 6:00 clock that count as Thursday beside it would have count in the past as Friday for an OD.

The difference seems to be:

the demand for tickets was so high, that they did around the clock showings beside that being not typical anymore since the change to evening starting previews. Means this time we have both: income via the old time of date showings and the new time of date showings = bigger numbers possible, if the demand is there. And boy, how much of it was (and is) there.

 

Then there is the money made via Saturday between Midnight and 6:00 o'clock. That always was counted into the Friday, so there I do not see a change that might cause any discussion / questions.

 

Another little detail I want to add:

Usually the changes about previews / OW were based on the indistry. The last change was based on a tragic event, still implimented by the industry, but IMHO at least also as a reaction to the audience.

 

General thoughts:

What I think is rather illogical and weights in too much with big pre-sales:

pre-sales get counted as matinees = no matter the time of date the presale was bought for. With typical pre-sales an older calculation model will still work, but in times with growing pre-sales (and finally some reserved seatings, we have it here since ages), they really should think about how to get the datas split up to their ~ correct time of date

 

Someone mentioned (might have been in the weekend thread) ticket prices and money people spent for tickets = not the same, pre-sale tickets add a bit of money for the pre-sale service, at least here it is done in that way.

[The Stingray]

Anyone else feel the 900m and especially the 1b talk is a wee premature? Let's say around 650m by the end of New Years weekend, and another 200m after that (JW legs), which gives us 850m total.

 

Or are y'all expecting Avatar drops or something throughout its run?

 

Personally, I think it can do 900m, but 1b seems like a long shot.
 

[BATMOOSEMIKE]

What do you guys think the weekday drops in the future will be compared to Avatars? Higher? Lower?