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Wednesday Star Wars TFA ACTUALS - 38,022,183

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5 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:

How can a film that crushed the domestic and world wide box office be a fluke? Was it a fluke that Avatar had a 10x? Revisionist history is veddy veddy bad Jerry.

 

It was the 3D craze.

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2 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

I plugged in a few numbers -- this sounds like weird math, but bear with me -- comparing a film's Christmas gross to its Monday gross of that week where relevant and those estimates landed a TFA x-mas total between $56M and $58M. I'm not saying that is a reasonable expectation, I'm just saying that if it made $40M Monday, and that wasn't a fluke clearly as it nearly did the same Tuesday and (apparently) Wednesday, it stands to reason it's going to increase dramatically on X-Mas day. If someone is saying $50M X-Mas day, I have to wonder why? We already know X-Mas was the 3rd biggest day for pre-sales so unless the pre-sales absolutely do not correlate with the attendance (i.e. walk up numbers are much smaller), it seems odd it would only be an increase of 25% from Monday when most films increase more like 40%. Not to mention a much smaller portion of people were off Monday compared to Friday for X-Mas. 

 

I know it kind of sounds crazy because last Friday was, what, $62M without previews? But $55M Christmas day does seem possible. It's less crazy when you remember that a lot of people who badly wanted to see it did see it during previews, so the afternoon showings weren't as crazy as they could be on a day off a week later. The night showings may perform a bit weaker but given the apparent demand and it being a big moviegoing day, it seems possible. 

My only concern is show times. It will of course remain in 4200 theaters but that doesn't mean it'll have the same amount of screens and shows as last weekend with 5 new openers. Anyone have a show count comparison in their market?

WOM is spreading, and it's drawing non movie goers out of the woodwork. I could see 55m+ but will it have the seats for 5.5m butts

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Just now, #ED2-D2 said:

 

It was the 3D craze.

Just like the 3D craze has helped multiple films hit the same heights since right?

 

You don't get 10x legs just from 3D, we would be getting 2+ billion films all the time if that was true.

 

Honestly the hate blinds people into stupidity at times.

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Out of a Forbes article (no, it's not Mendelsohn - sp.?)

 

According to our estimates, the Disney Studios division accounts for nearly 12% of the company’s valuation, and we estimate Disney’s market share in the global box office to be around 10% over our forecast period, given that the company is planning to release one movie in the Star Wars series every year till 2020.

....

According to Macquarie Securities, the film could gross $2 billion in global box office receipts and generate merchandise sales of $5 billion. The company could also earn $500 million in licensing and publishing revenue alone. Although the company has not provided revenue projections for the series of Star Wars films (it plans to roll out four more films in the next four years), industry estimates put total revenue from these films to around $25 billion in the next five years. We estimate Disney’s market share in the global box office to remain steady around 11% over our forecast period, after jumping from 9.5% in 2014 to around 10.5% in 2016, primarily due to the success of the Star Wars series.

....

Disney’s consumer products and interactive media division accounts for nearly 15% of the company’s valuation, according to our estimates. We believe revenues of this division will grow from around $4.75 billion in 2015 to nearly $8 billion by the end of our forecast period, driven primarily by sales in its newly opened Shanghai store, Playmation toy series and Star Wars merchandise.

....

planning to create a Star Wars area in its amusement parks and this should attract additional traffic to its parks thus increasing revenues. We believe Star Wars is a massive franchise for Disney and its strategy of integrating the movie with other segments such as merchandise, theme parks and video games should work well as it has in the past. Given that the company plans to release one movie in this series every year till 2020, it will be a key growth driver for the next few years.

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2015/12/24/how-much-can-the-success-of-star-wars-impact-disneys-valuation/

 

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2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Just like the 3D craze has helped multiple films hit the same heights since right?

 

You don't get 10x legs just from 3D, we would be getting 2+ billion films all the time if that was true.

 

Honestly the hate blinds people into stupidity at times.

 

It started the 3D trend. 80% of tickets sold were 3D.

 

Also, people are allowed to have opinions which you may think are stupidity, but it's fair game. Keep those insults to yourself there.

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6 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Honestly the hate blinds people into stupidity at times.

 

GRRRRRR please be aware, having another POV doesn't make other stupid - and I am not one of those 3D was the 'only' / overly reason.

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To change the discussion back to topic...

 

Could get an update later on, usually it's later into Thursday for that, but maby bcs of X-Mas Eve???

 

> NEW RELEASES
3 - Daddy's Home Paramount 3,271 - - - - - - 1
5 - Point Break (2015) Warner Bros. 2,910 - - - - - - 1
6 - Joy Fox 2,896 - - - - - - 1
7 - Concussion (2015) Sony / Columbia 2,841 - - - - - - 1
27 - The Hateful Eight Weinstein Company 100 - - - - - - 1
32 - Mr. Six China Lion 30 - - - - - - 1
38 - The Revenant Fox 4 - - - - - - 1
40 - 45 Years Sundance Selects 3 - - - - - - 1
43 - Yellow Day (2015) Providence Film Partners Limited - - - - - - 1
> EXPANDING
2 2 Alvin and the Chipmunks The Road Chip Fox 3,705 +52 +1.4% - - - - 2
10 52 The Big Short Paramount 1,585 +1,577 +19,712.5% - - - - 3
15 32 The Danish Girl Focus Features 440 +359 +443.2% - - - - 5
22 43 Carol Weinstein Company 179 +163 +1,018.8% - - - - 6
24 35 Youth Fox Searchlight 149 +88 +144.3% - - - - 4
26 36 The 33 Warner Bros. 111 +56 +101.8% - - - - 7
39 71 Son of Saul Sony Classics 4 +1 +33.3% - - - - 2
> NO CHANGE
1 1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens Buena Vista 4,134 - - - - - - 2
4 4 Sisters Universal 2,962 - - - - - - 2
42 - Anomalisa Paramount NY/LA - - - - - - 0
> DECLINING
8 5 The Good Dinosaur Buena Vista 2,134 -621 -22.5% - - - - 5
9 6 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 Lionsgate 1,813 -840 -31.7% - - - - 6
11 7 Creed Warner Bros. (New Line) 1,518 -915 -37.6% - - - - 5
12 8 Krampus Universal 1,152 -1,219 -51.4% - - -  
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3 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 

GRRRRRR please be aware, having another POV doesn't make other stupid - and I am not one of those 3D was the 'only' / overly reason.

I wasn't calling anyone stupid, i was saying its a stupid opinion, backed up by nothing but complete bias.

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